Analytic Techniques Review

Flashcards covering various analytic techniques and their applications from the lecture notes.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS CHECK

A technique used at the beginning of an analytic project to explain the logic of an argument, expose faulty logic, understand key factors, stimulate thinking, uncover hidden relationships, identify developments that would cause abandonment of an assumption, and prepare analysts for changed circumstances.

QUALITY OF INFORMATION CHECK

An ongoing continuous process that helps detect possible deception and denial strategies by an adversary, identify key intelligence gaps, and assist policymakers in understanding analysts' confidence levels in analytic judgments.

INDICATORS OR SIGNPOSTS OF CHANGE

A technique used whenever an analyst needs to track an event over time to monitor and evaluate change, by identifying competing hypotheses, creating separate lists of potential activities, regularly reviewing and updating the indicators list, and identifying the most likely hypotheses based on observed changes.

ANALYSIS OF COMPETING HYPOTHESES (ACH)

A technique used when there are large amounts of data to absorb and evaluate, especially for controversial issues, to develop a clear record of theories considered, ensure all information and argumentation is evaluated equally, prevent premature closure, and protect against ignoring contradictory information.

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY

A technique used to challenge an analytic consensus or key assumption regarding a critically important intelligence question, by outlining judgments and key assumptions, characterizing supporting evidence, selecting susceptible assumptions, and reviewing information for questionable validity, possible deception, or major gaps.

TEAM A/TEAM B

A technique used for longstanding policy issues, critical decisions, or disputes within the analytic community, involving an oral presentation of alternative team findings to an independent jury of peers, allowing each team to present their case, challenge the other, and rebut critiques.

HIGH IMPACT/LOW PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

A technique used when analysts and policymakers are convinced an event is unlikely but haven't thoroughly considered its consequences, by defining the high impact outcome, devising plausible explanations or pathways, inserting possible triggers, and brainstorming with analysts.

WHAT IF ANALYSIS

A contrarian technique used when a judgment rests on limited information or unproven assumptions, where an event is assumed to have occurred to explain how it might come about, by developing a logical chain of argumentation, specifying what must occur at each stage, and considering the scope of positive and negative consequences.

BRAINSTORMING

A technique used at the beginning of a project to help generate a range of hypotheses about an issue, emphasizing not censoring an analyst's ideas, finding out what prompted a thought, and allowing enough time for the process.

OUTSIDE IN THINKING

A technique used at the conceptualization of an analytic project to identify all critical, external factors that could influence how a particular situation will develop, by listing key forces (technological, economic, environmental, political), focusing on factors an actor can influence, assessing their effect, and determining their actual impact.

RED TEAM ANALYSIS

A technique useful for replicating the mindset of authoritarian leaders, terrorist cells, or other non-Western groups that operate under different codes of behavior or motivations, by putting oneself in the adversary's circumstances, developing 'first person' questions, and drafting policy papers from their perspective.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS

A technique useful when a situation is viewed as too complex or the outcomes too uncertain for a single assessment, providing an effective means of weighing multiple unknown or unknowable factors, presenting a set of plausible outcomes, helping to bound a problem, and offering a broader analytic framework for calculating costs, risks, and opportunities.