Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis

Purpose of Structured Analytic Techniques

To challenge judgments, identify mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty in intelligence analysis.

Scope of Structured Analytic Techniques

A toolkit, not a comprehensive workflow, designed to structure thinking for difficult analytic questions.

Core Idea of Analytic Techniques

They help surface assumptions and explore alternatives, recognizing how cognitive biases and mental models influence information acceptance.

Mental Models

Cognitive frameworks that bias interpretation toward expected patterns.

Mind-set Risks

Perceiving what's expected, experiencing resistance to change, and ignoring conflicting data.

Context for Using Techniques

Increased uncertainty and unexpected shifts in complex global environments.

Grouping of Techniques

Diagnostic, Contrarian, and Imaginative thinking.

Limitations of Analytic Techniques

They improve sophistication and credibility but not precision; they help avoid rigid thinking and foster new insights.

Focus of Diagnostic Techniques

Making analytic arguments explicit and exposing hidden assumptions.

Core Diagnostic Techniques

Key Assumptions Check (KAC), Quality of Information Check (QoIC), and Indicators or Signposts of Change.

Key Assumptions Check (KAC) Purpose

To list and review key working assumptions underpinning judgments.

When to Use Key Assumptions Check (KAC)

Best at the start of a project; recheck before making final judgments/assessments.

Definition of a Key Assumption

A hypothesis accepted as true, forming the basis of an assessment (e.g., military, political, or economic stability).

Value Added by Key Assumptions Check (KAC)

Makes logic explicit, exposes flaws, and identifies shaping factors.

Structured Analytic Techniques

Tools used to challenge judgments, identify mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty in intelligence analysis.

Diagnostic Techniques

Techniques focused on making analytic arguments explicit and exposing hidden assumptions.

Key Assumptions Check (KAC)

A technique to list and review key working hypotheses accepted as true, which underpin analytical judgments.

Quality of Information Check (QoIC)

A technique to systematically evaluate the reliability, credibility, and relevance of information sources.

Indicators or Signposts of Change

Discrete, observable events or trends that, if observed, would suggest a change in an analytic judgment.

Contrarian Techniques

Techniques focused on deliberately challenging an analytic consensus or a deeply held assumption.

Devil's Advocate

A designated critic who articulates and defends an alternative view contrary to the consensus or dominant hypothesis.

Team A/Team B

A technique where multiple independent teams analyze the same issue from different perspectives or hypotheses to explore various outcomes.

High-Impact/Low-Probability (HILP) Analysis

A systematic examination of unlikely events that would have severe consequences if they occurred, used for risk assessment.

Premortem Analysis

A prospective hindsight exercise where participants imagine a project has failed dramatically and then explain why, to identify potential failure points.

Imaginative Techniques

Techniques focused on generating new ideas, alternative scenarios, and challenging conventional wisdom.

Brainstorming

A group creativity technique designed to generate a large number of ideas or hypotheses in a free-flowing, non-judgmental environment.

Structured Analogies

A technique to apply insights from a past, similar situation to understand a current analytic problem.

Alternative Futures Analysis

A technique to explore multiple plausible future scenarios, often varying along key dimensions of uncertainty, for long-range planning.

Red Hat/Blue Hat Analyses

A technique to simulate the perspective of an adversary or competitor ('Red Hat') or a neutral third party