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2 things to make a Public Opinion Poll Accurate
Properly drawn sample and carefully worded questions.
Random Sampling
A method of selecting from a population in which each person has an equal probability of being selected.
Stratified Sampling
Method of making a list of geographical units in a country and grouping them by population.
Exit Polls
Polls based on interviews conducted on election day with randomly selected voters, proven to be pretty accurate.
Political Socialization
The process by which one’s family influences one’s political views.
Impressionable Years Hypothesis
Political experiences during teens and early 20s shape attitudes for the rest of the life cycle.
Gender Gap and Issues
Women lean liberal on social welfare and foreign policy issues, such as universal healthcare.
Latino Demographic Group
Largest minority group; diverse opinions due to different backgrounds and histories similar to the rest of the US.
Political Ideology -measured in 2 ways
A consistent set of beliefs about what policies ought to pursue.
Determining how frequently people use broad political categories to describe their own views (symbolic ideology- Liberal, Conservative, radical)
Measuring how accurately one can predict people’s views on one issue based on their view on that subject earlier, or one issue based on another.
America is sorted but not Polarized
Americans lean republican/democrat and don’t cross the line (equally split). The more involved in politics, the more polarized you are (lean a certain way). -Elites may be polarized, but ordinary voters are just sorted
Public Bases opinion off Heuristics
Informational shortcuts used by voters to make a decision (simplify things)
Why do policies passed not always coincide with the public majority will? (2 reasons)
They didn’t design the government to always change their mind at the public will
Hard to know what the public thinks
Opinion Saliency
How strong public opinion is; the extent to which they care differs.
Opinion Stability
The degree to which public opinion is steady or volatile.
Voting Age Population (VAP)
Residents who are eligible to vote after reaching age requirement.
Voting Eligible Population (VEP)
Residents who are voter age, excluding people not legally able to vote. (more accurate)
Motor-Voter Law
Federal law passed in 1992 that made it easier to register to vote.
National Voter Registration Act
Allows people in all 50 states to register to vote when applying for driver’s license
Automatic Voter Registration
Automatically registers all eligible citizens to vote unless they opt out. “Those who register when the process is costless are less likely to vote”
Why is voting here lower than other Democracies?
We elect many more public officials, and many Americans aren’t registered to vote (70% eligible are).
Voter turnout, symptom of political disease or sign of political good health?
If all adult Americans registered and voted, it could mean people were deeply upset about how things were run. Not clear if low voter turnout is a symptom of political disease or a sign of political good health.
“Party of Nonvoters”
Assumes universal voter turnout would benefit Liberal/Democratic parties. Because they are typically poor/less educated, but it would actually reflect the current diverse population and outcome would change a bit.
What drives voter participation? 3 things
Raw ingredients: resources needed to participate in politics like time, money, civic skills, employment, and education
Psychological motivators: lacking resources, passion, and motivation can inspire some voters to participate (social pressure)
Sometimes it is a single issue (Single issue voters)
Other ways of Voting
Early voting: casting ballots before election day without an excuse to do it
Absentee voting: Permit voting by mail for military personnel, voting age dependents, and US citizens living overseas
Mail voting: ballot automatically mailed to every eligible citizen
GOTV (Get Out the Vote)
Drives to increase voter turnout, often targeting specific demographics. (Social pressure)
Social Pressure
Voter report cards of your own voting history to your neighborhood
Spillover Effect
Voting is habit-forming; exposure increases likelihood of being a lifelong voter.
Rising Electorate
Expanding the eligible pool of voters, such as allowing black voters and women's suffrage.
Why do groups that vote at higher levels have more political power?
Politicians respond to those who vote more than those who don’t and since youth vote less they respond less. (Government strengthens social security, medicare, cost of prescription drugs, etc. because seniors are more politically involved)
Efficacy
The belief that your voice matters
Pledged delegates
Delegates awarded through presidential primaries and caucuses with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the convention
Unpledged Delegates
Delegates, who are not bound to support any specific candidate and can vote for whomever they choose at the convention.
Primary elections
help to determine the nominee from a particular party
Closed Primary
Election where only registered party members vote for a party’s nominee (Minnesota now)
Open Primary
Election where all voters (regardless of party) vote for the party’s nominee
Why is America’s 2 party system so strong?
In many other systems parties control access to the ballot. In most American states, party leaders don’t select people to run for office; by law, those people are chosen by primary election.
In preliminary system, legislative/executive branches are unified not divided like in US. Winner take all system
Federal government system in US decentralizes political authority, and therefore political party organizations
Incumbent and its advantages
The person already holding an elective office. Advantage: incumbents tend to do better than other similar challengers especially in congressional elections (Ability to serve their constituency, claim every bridge, road, and project, and enjoy much more fundraising advantages)
Split-Ticket Voter
Votes for some Democratic and some Republican candidates.
Straight Ticket Voter
Votes for all Democratic/Republican candidates (more polarized)
Party Realignments (3 examples)
Control Shift: (1932) complete swap of majority because of a new issue or dissatisfaction in current party
Regional Shift: regions shift from blue to red (Civil war and blue wall)
Party Ideology shifts: Conservation of Environment, States’ Rights, Civil Rights, Gun Laws, Farmer party
Super Delegates
Party leaders and elected officials who become delegates to the national convention without having to run in primaries or caucuses (Unpledged)
Political Party as an organization, set of leaders, label
A party exists as an organization that recruits and campaigns for candidates, as a label in the minds of voters, and as a set of leaders who try to organize and control the legislative and executive branches of government.
Iowa Caucus
highly anticipated since it’s the first one of the season
Super Tuesday
Date for widespread primary elections (March)
Front loading
Every state wants their primary to matter and make it happen by moving their state’s primary to the beginning of the calendar. (may benefit state parties, but harms voters)
Bandwagon effect
The boost a candidate gets in future contests after an election victory (especially an upset win)
Elections here vs. Abroad
Elections in America have not one but two crucial phases, getting nominated and getting elected. Abroad, winning a party’s nomination involves organizational decision and the party decides if they want to let you run.
Battleground/swing states
Most competitive states in the presidential election that either candidate could win
Campaign Strategies (3 things)
Assigning credit or blame: overall health of the nation -economy is central predictor
Judge of character: someone with the right traits to lead, leadership, integrity, honest
Activating partisans: both parties still need to “court independent voters” to win
“Campaigns remind Democrats why they are Democrats rather than Republicans, and remind Republicans why they are Republicans rather than Democrats.”
Prospective voting
voting for a candidate because you favor their ideas on issues
Retrospective voting
Voting for a candidate because you like their past action (Economy is most central issue)
Surge and Decline of Elections
The president’s party tends to do better at the beginning of the season in November (surge), but do worse in midterms because voters are less enthusiastic and don’t vote.
Soft Money
Donations not directly to a specific candidate or party (no limit).
Hard Money
Donations made directly to a specific candidate or party (limited).
Dark Money
Political spending where the donor is hidden and untraceable.
PACS
Committees set up by a corporation, labor union, or interest group that raise and spend campaign money from voluntary donations.
SUPERPACS
Raises and spends unlimited amounts of money and cannot directly work with a candidate or party
Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Agency that discloses campaign finance information and enforces laws on contributions.
Television ads
appeal to emotions and make negative attacks (larger effect on people who are more informed and engaged politically)
Spiral effect
negative ads don’t work as well when evenly matched because negative cancels out another (uncountered ads work)
McConnell vs. FEC (Ruling and outcome)
Ruling: upheld the law and the rule that Ads placed by “soft money” cannot mention a candidate’s name within 60 days before an election. You just can’t say vote for this person. 2007 altered verdict: “issue advocacy” Ads are okay! (Ads that name a candidate and run during an election time frame, but don’t tell voters who to vote for)
Horse-Race Journalism
Coverage focusing on who is winning rather than on candidates’ positions on issues.
Interest Groups
Organizations of people sharing a common interest seeking to influence public policy.
Lobbyists
Individuals who try to influence public policy on behalf of an interest group.
Incentives to join group (3 types)
Solidary Incentives: social rewards or status leading people to join political institution
Material Incentives: money or things valued in monetary terms
Purposive Incentives: benefit coming from serving a cause or principal
Upper Class Bias (input vs. output)
Believe interest groups in Washington reflect this
Input: Well off people join interests groups more, companies with more money can hire more lobbyists, and interests of Big Business are over-represented in Washington. Output: A lot of interest groups cancel each other out and don’t get what they want
Free-Rider Problem
Individuals benefit from the efforts of an interest group without contributing.
Emily’s List
Work to elect more women to government
Sierra Club
Conservation of wilderness and Earth
Janis Supreme Court Decision and effect on Unions
Janus v. American Federation of State, Country, and Municipal Employees
Janus wins and people can choose if they want to be part of a union
Public sector Unions may no longer collect “Fair-Share” union dues for collective bargaining.
What strategy do public interest lobby groups use to make a greater change?
Bring forward lawsuits
Purposive Groups
Interest groups with ideological incentives thrive during administrations or time periods hostile to their cause.
Outsider Tactics
Strategies used by interest groups to mobilize public support outside of formal lobbying.
Grassroots lobbying
Encourage public to send letters, call a representative, sign a petition, and visibility, showing up at the capital
Insider Tactics
Strategies involving direct interaction with lawmakers and policymakers. Especially members of congress. (direct lobbying)
Revolving Door Problem
every year, hundreds of people leave jobs in federal government to take private industry positions (gives private interests a way of improperly influencing government about policy)
Popular Press
Printing press: Associated Press (AP) the same story is disseminated to every paper. Has to be short, and nonpartisan
Urbanization: Cities can support a paper! Birth of local newspapers. By 2009, many independently owned local newspapers out of business
Birth of News Broadcasting
Today - only a small % of TV/Radio Stations are publicly owned (ie: PBS, NPR, MPR)
Declining Audience: Evening news audience cut in half from 1980 to 2016, especially those younger than 50.
1920s radio and 1950s TV
Internet/Social Media
(2017) ⅔ of adults get their news from social media.
Potential to inform Americans about politics BUT...in reality?
“Fake News” and less “fact checking” than Newspapers.
Echo chambers
One side of the story - “echo chambers” = “Incestuous Amplification” The extreme reinforcement and/or overhyping of ideas and/or beliefs that occurs when like-minded people communicate with each other.
FCC (Federal Communications Commission)
On radio and TV"Candidates are entitled to the same quantity, day part and price as their opponents in terms of airtime, unless it is bonafide news coverage.”
FCC relies on the fact that there are so many competing news sources is enough to be fair to all sides of view.
Equal time rule
a station that sells time to one candidate must sell equal to other candidates
Fairness Doctrine
if broadcasters aired one side of the story, they had to give equal time to opposing points of view.
Agenda-Setting effect
Media can affect what issues are most important. (decide which events/issues to present)(“Gate-keeping”)
Priming Effect
The media influence the criterion issues by which the public evaluates political leaders.
The Framing effect
The media influences HOW the public perceives an issue in the news based on the avenue presented. (Judgments and tone)
How does Media maintain accountability?
Because we have distrust in our culture, media is a “Watchdog” (Whistleblowers) people like when they investigate and cover scandals
Is Media Biased?
Most Americans think so. (26% believe the facts presented; 20% think it is “independent in thought.”
Liberal Majority
Most reporters will admit to leaning liberal, and that is a real perception by the public, however the textbook reminds us that alone does not negate objectivity and balance norms of journalism.
Negative Reporting
Biased towards what will draw the largest audience ----->negative reporting (ie : sensationalized news and Adversarial press - eager to reveal unflattering stories of politicians) “infotainment”
Selective Perception
If you are conservative, you may not detect that Fox News is conservative, or conversely, if you are liberal, you may not think the NY Times is overtly liberal.
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Flashcard (27)