Poli Sci Exam 2

2 things to make a Public Opinion Poll Accurate

Properly drawn sample and carefully worded questions.

Random Sampling

A method of selecting from a population in which each person has an equal probability of being selected.

Stratified Sampling

Method of making a list of geographical units in a country and grouping them by population.

Exit Polls

Polls based on interviews conducted on election day with randomly selected voters, proven to be pretty accurate.

Political Socialization

The process by which one’s family influences one’s political views.

Impressionable Years Hypothesis

Political experiences during teens and early 20s shape attitudes for the rest of the life cycle.

Gender Gap and Issues

Women lean liberal on social welfare and foreign policy issues, such as universal healthcare.

Latino Demographic Group

Largest minority group; diverse opinions due to different backgrounds and histories similar to the rest of the US.

Political Ideology -measured in 2 ways

A consistent set of beliefs about what policies ought to pursue.

1. Determining how frequently people use broad political categories to describe their own views (symbolic ideology- Liberal, Conservative, radical)

2. Measuring how accurately one can predict people’s views on one issue based on their view on that subject earlier, or one issue based on another.

America is sorted but not Polarized

Americans lean republican/democrat and don’t cross the line (equally split). The more involved in politics, the more polarized you are (lean a certain way). -Elites may be polarized, but ordinary voters are just sorted

Public Bases opinion off Heuristics

Informational shortcuts used by voters to make a decision (simplify things)

Why do policies passed not always coincide with the public majority will? (2 reasons)

1. They didn’t design the government to always change their mind at the public will

2. Hard to know what the public thinks

Opinion Saliency

How strong public opinion is; the extent to which they care differs.

Opinion Stability

The degree to which public opinion is steady or volatile.

Voting Age Population (VAP)

Residents who are eligible to vote after reaching age requirement.

Voting Eligible Population (VEP)

Residents who are voter age, excluding people not legally able to vote. (more accurate)

Motor-Voter Law

Federal law passed in 1992 that made it easier to register to vote.

National Voter Registration Act

Allows people in all 50 states to register to vote when applying for driver’s license

Automatic Voter Registration

Automatically registers all eligible citizens to vote unless they opt out. “Those who register when the process is costless are less likely to vote”

Why is voting here lower than other Democracies?

 We elect many more public officials, and many Americans aren’t registered to vote (70% eligible are).

Voter turnout, symptom of political disease or sign of political good health?

If all adult Americans registered and voted, it could mean people were deeply upset about how things were run. Not clear if low voter turnout is a symptom of political disease or a sign of political good health.

“Party of Nonvoters”

Assumes universal voter turnout would benefit Liberal/Democratic parties. Because they are typically poor/less educated, but it would actually reflect the current diverse population and outcome would change a bit.

What drives voter participation? 3 things

1. Raw ingredients: resources needed to participate in politics like time, money, civic skills, employment, and education

2. Psychological motivators: lacking resources, passion, and motivation can inspire some voters to participate (social pressure)

3. Sometimes it is a single issue (Single issue voters)

Other ways of Voting

Early voting: casting ballots before election day without an excuse to do it

Absentee voting: Permit voting by mail for military personnel, voting age dependents, and US citizens living overseas

Mail voting: ballot automatically mailed to every eligible citizen

GOTV (Get Out the Vote)

Drives to increase voter turnout, often targeting specific demographics. (Social pressure)

Social Pressure

Voter report cards of your own voting history to your neighborhood

Spillover Effect

Voting is habit-forming; exposure increases likelihood of being a lifelong voter.

Rising Electorate

Expanding the eligible pool of voters, such as allowing black voters and women's suffrage.

Why do groups that vote at higher levels have more political power?

Politicians respond to those who vote more than those who don’t and since youth vote less they respond less. (Government strengthens social security, medicare, cost of prescription drugs, etc. because seniors are more politically involved)

Efficacy

The belief that your voice matters

Pledged delegates

Delegates awarded through presidential primaries and caucuses with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the convention

Unpledged Delegates

Delegates, who are not bound to support any specific candidate and can vote for whomever they choose at the convention.

Primary elections

help to determine the nominee from a particular party

Closed Primary

Election where only registered party members vote for a party’s nominee (Minnesota now)

Open Primary

Election where all voters (regardless of party) vote for the party’s nominee

Why is America’s 2 party system so strong?

1. In many other systems parties control access to the ballot. In most American states, party leaders don’t select people to run for office; by law, those people are chosen by primary election.

2. In preliminary system, legislative/executive branches are unified not divided like in US. Winner take all system

3. Federal government system in US decentralizes political authority, and therefore political party organizations

Incumbent and its advantages

The person already holding an elective office. Advantage: incumbents tend to do better than other similar challengers especially in congressional elections (Ability to serve their constituency, claim every bridge, road, and project, and enjoy much more fundraising advantages)

Split-Ticket Voter

Votes for some Democratic and some Republican candidates.

Straight Ticket Voter

Votes for all Democratic/Republican candidates (more polarized)

Party Realignments (3 examples)

1. Control Shift: (1932) complete swap of majority because of a new issue or dissatisfaction in current party

2. Regional Shift: regions shift from blue to red (Civil war and blue wall)

3. Party Ideology shifts: Conservation of Environment, States’ Rights, Civil Rights, Gun Laws, Farmer party

Super Delegates

Party leaders and elected officials who become delegates to the national convention without having to run in primaries or caucuses (Unpledged)

Political Party as an organization, set of leaders, label

A party exists as an organization that recruits and campaigns for candidates, as a label in the minds of voters, and as a set of leaders who try to organize and control the legislative and executive branches of government.

Iowa Caucus

highly anticipated since it’s the first one of the season

Super Tuesday

Date for widespread primary elections (March)

Front loading

Every state wants their primary to matter and make it happen by moving their state’s primary to the beginning of the calendar. (may benefit state parties, but harms voters)

Bandwagon effect

The boost a candidate gets in future contests after an election victory (especially an upset win)

Elections here vs. Abroad

Elections in America have not one but two crucial phases, getting nominated and getting elected. Abroad, winning a party’s nomination involves organizational decision and the party decides if they want to let you run.

Battleground/swing states

Most competitive states in the presidential election that either candidate could win

Campaign Strategies (3 things)

1. Assigning credit or blame: overall health of the nation -economy is central predictor

2. Judge of character: someone with the right traits to lead, leadership, integrity, honest 

3. Activating partisans: both parties still need to “court independent voters” to win

   • “Campaigns remind Democrats why they are Democrats rather than Republicans, and remind Republicans why they are Republicans rather than Democrats.”

Prospective voting

voting for a candidate because you favor their ideas on issues

Retrospective voting

Voting for a candidate because you like their past action (Economy is most central issue)

Surge and Decline of Elections

The president’s party tends to do better at the beginning of the season in November (surge), but do worse in midterms because voters are less enthusiastic and don’t vote.

Soft Money

Donations not directly to a specific candidate or party (no limit).

Hard Money

Donations made directly to a specific candidate or party (limited).

Dark Money

Political spending where the donor is hidden and untraceable.

PACS

Committees set up by a corporation, labor union, or interest group that raise and spend campaign money from voluntary donations.

SUPERPACS

Raises and spends unlimited amounts of money and cannot directly work with a candidate or party

Federal Election Commission (FEC)

Agency that discloses campaign finance information and enforces laws on contributions.

Television ads

appeal to emotions and make negative attacks (larger effect on people who are more informed and engaged politically)

Spiral effect

negative ads don’t work as well when evenly matched because negative cancels out another (uncountered ads work)

McConnell vs. FEC (Ruling and outcome)

Ruling: upheld the law and the rule that Ads placed by “soft money” cannot mention a candidate’s name within 60 days before an election. You just can’t say vote for this person. 2007 altered verdict: “issue advocacy” Ads are okay! (Ads that name a candidate and run during an election time frame, but don’t tell voters who to vote for)

Horse-Race Journalism

Coverage focusing on who is winning rather than on candidates’ positions on issues.

Interest Groups

Organizations of people sharing a common interest seeking to influence public policy.

Lobbyists

Individuals who try to influence public policy on behalf of an interest group.

Incentives to join group (3 types)

Solidary Incentives: social rewards or status leading people to join political institution

Material Incentives: money or things valued in monetary terms

Purposive Incentives: benefit coming from serving a cause or principal

Upper Class Bias (input vs. output)

Believe interest groups in Washington reflect this

Input: Well off people join interests groups more, companies with more money can hire more lobbyists, and interests of Big Business are over-represented in Washington. Output: A lot of interest groups cancel each other out and don’t get what they want

Free-Rider Problem

Individuals benefit from the efforts of an interest group without contributing.

Emily’s List

Work to elect more women to government

Sierra Club

Conservation of wilderness and Earth

Janis Supreme Court Decision and effect on Unions

Janus v. American Federation of State, Country, and Municipal Employees

• Janus wins and people can choose if they want to be part of a union

• Public sector Unions may no longer collect “Fair-Share” union dues for collective bargaining.

What strategy do public interest lobby groups use to make a greater change?

Bring forward lawsuits

Purposive Groups

Interest groups with ideological incentives thrive during administrations or time periods hostile to their cause.

Outsider Tactics

Strategies used by interest groups to mobilize public support outside of formal lobbying.

Grassroots lobbying

Encourage public to send letters, call a representative, sign a petition, and visibility, showing up at the capital

Insider Tactics

Strategies involving direct interaction with lawmakers and policymakers. Especially members of congress. (direct lobbying)

Revolving Door Problem

every year, hundreds of people leave jobs in federal government to take private industry positions (gives private interests a way of improperly influencing government about policy)

Popular Press

Printing press: Associated Press (AP) the same story is disseminated to every paper.  Has to be short, and nonpartisan

Urbanization: Cities can support a paper! Birth of local newspapers. By 2009, many independently owned local newspapers out of business

Birth of News Broadcasting

Today - only a small % of TV/Radio Stations are publicly owned  (ie: PBS, NPR, MPR)

• Declining Audience: Evening news audience cut in half from 1980 to 2016, especially those younger than 50.  

• 1920s radio and 1950s TV

Internet/Social Media

(2017) ⅔ of adults get their news from social media.

Potential to inform Americans about politics BUT...in reality?

• “Fake News” and less “fact checking” than Newspapers.

Echo chambers

One side of the story - “echo chambers” = “Incestuous Amplification” The extreme reinforcement and/or overhyping of ideas and/or beliefs that occurs when like-minded people communicate with each other.

FCC (Federal Communications Commission)

On radio and TV"Candidates are entitled to the same quantity, day part and price as their opponents in terms of airtime, unless it is bonafide news coverage.”

FCC relies on the fact that there are so many competing news sources is enough to be fair to all sides of view.

Equal time rule

a station that sells time to one candidate must sell equal to other candidates

Fairness Doctrine

if broadcasters aired one side of the story, they had to give equal time to opposing points of view.

Agenda-Setting effect

Media can affect what issues are most important. (decide which events/issues to present)(“Gate-keeping”)

Priming Effect

The media influence the criterion issues by which the public evaluates political leaders.

The Framing effect

The media influences HOW the public perceives an issue in the news based on the avenue presented. (Judgments and tone)

How does Media maintain accountability?

Because we have distrust in our culture, media is a  “Watchdog”  (Whistleblowers) people like when they investigate and cover scandals

Is Media Biased?

Most Americans think so.  (26% believe the facts presented;  20% think it is “independent in thought.”

Liberal Majority

Most reporters will admit to leaning liberal, and that is a real perception by the public, however the textbook reminds us that alone does not negate objectivity and balance norms of journalism.

Negative Reporting

Biased towards what will draw the largest audience ----->negative reporting  (ie : sensationalized news and Adversarial press - eager to reveal unflattering stories of politicians) “infotainment”

Selective Perception

If you are conservative, you may not detect that Fox News is conservative, or conversely, if you are liberal, you may not think the NY Times is overtly liberal.