Poli Sci Exam 2

2 things required to make a public opinion poll more accurate: Properly drawn sample and carefully worded questions

Know:  random sampling - what does it mean to be stratified? Method of selecting from a population in which each person has an equal probability of being selected

-Stratify: make a list of geographical units in a country and group them by population

What are Exit Polls meant to measure? Are they typically accurate? Polls based on interviews conducted on election day with randomly selected voters -Proven to be pretty accurate

Political Socialization (define and know the various influences on) process by which one’s family influences one’s political views. Ex. Family, demographics, media, opinions of political elites, and personal experiences

       What is the  “Impressionable years hypothesis” political experiences during teens and early 20s powerfully shape attitudes for the rest of the life cycle

Identify some demographic gaps that exist in political ideology/public opinion? Gender, race/ethnicity, age, Latinos, etc.

Gender Gap — what issues (2) drive the gap the most? Women lean liberal on social welfare and foreign policy issues, universal healthcare, and less taxes for military

The Latino demographic group is the largest minority group, but how is that group less predictable with one opinion “gap”? They all come from so many different backgrounds and countries and generations in America, their diverse opinions reflect the rest of the country’s.

Political Ideology (define) and 2 ways the strength of one’s political ideology is measured. 

More or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies ought to pursue, measured in 2 ways

1. Determining how frequently people use broad political categories to describe their own views (symbolic ideology- Liberal, Conservative, radical)

2. Measuring how accurately one can predict people’s views on one issue based on their view on that subject earlier, or one issue based on another

What does it mean that the American public is “sorted” but “polarized” 

---- how does the general public compare to the political elites 

Americans lean republican/democrat and don’t cross the line (equally split)

The more involved in politics, the more polarized you are (lean a certain way)

-Elites may be polarized, but ordinary voters are not they are sorted

What does it mean that the public often bases their political opinion on heuristics? 

Informational shortcuts used by voters to make a decision (simplify things)

Why do policies passed not always coincide with the “public majority will?”  (2 reasons)

1. They didn’t design the government to always change their mind at the public will

2. Hard to know what the public thinks

What is Opinion Saliency and Opinion Stability, and why is it harder to measure?

Opinion Saliency- How strong public opinion is, the extent to which they care differs!

Opinion Stability- The degree in which public opinion will be steady, or volatile (how long)

(Sometimes public opinion changes in response to positive or negative news reports)

Chapter 8.  Political Participation

VAP v VEP (which is more accurate, which is usually higher?)

Voting Age Population (VAP): residents who are eligible to vote after reaching age requirement

Voting Eligible Population (VEP): Residents who are voter age, excluding people not legally able

Motor -Voter Law- new Federal law passed in 1992 made it easier to register to vote -National Voter Registration Act. Allows people in all 50 states to register to vote when applying for driver's license

                 How different than Automatic Voter Registration? Automatically registers all eligible citizens to vote unless they opt out of doing so.

What does the quote from the text: “Those who register when the process is costless are less likely to vote” mean? Motor Voter Law caused more to vote than automatic and more used.

Potential explanations for why voting is much lower here than other democracies? We elect many more public officials, and many Americans aren’t registered to vote (70% eligible are).

How can voter turnout be looked both as:  “symptom of political disease” or “sign of political good health” If all adult Americans registered and voted it could mean people were deeply upset about how things were run. Not clear if low voter turnout is a symptom of political disease or a sign of political good health.

Assumed “party of nonvoters” -we assume a universal voter turnout would benefit Liberal/Democratic parties because they are typically poor/less educated, but it would actually reflect the current diverse population and outcome would change a bit

What drives voter participation : (resources, psychological factors, sometimes single issues)

1. “Raw ingredients” -resources needed to participate in politics: time, money, civic skills, employment, and education

2. Psychological motivators- lacking resources, passion, and motivation can inspire some voters to participate (Social Pressure)

3. Sometimes it is a single issue -”Single issue voters”

Other ways of voting besides traditional “in person voting booth voting”

Early voting: casting ballots before election day without an excuse to do it

Absentee voting: Permit voting by mail for military personnel, voting age dependents, and US citizens living overseas

Mail voting: ballot automatically mailed to every eligible citizen

GOTV (what is this? And how does it work?)  while non-partisan, how can they still have a partisan intent? (ie:  who is targeted)

Drives to increase voter turnout “Social pressure” -Many studies determine efforts do increase participation, but hard to find exact. (Simply being registered = 20x more likely to vote)

Only sending go vote to certain parties/addresses based on who they voted for in the past. Sending campaigns to a certain area, rural/urban.

What is an example of “social pressure” and does it work? Voter report cards of your own compared to those in your neighborhood

What is the “spillover effect”?--- remember, this concept makes voter registration drives and GOTV drives more important “Spillover effect” – voting is habit - forming. The more exposure youth get to the process, the more likely they are to be life-long voters.

What is meant by the “rising electorate”?  A couple examples?

Expanding the eligible pool of voters (allowing black voters, women's suffrage, prisoners)

Why do groups that vote at higher levels have more political power? (ie: elderly vs youth — cycle of “efficacy” from the presentation slide deck)

Politicians respond to those who vote more than those who don’t and since youth vote less they respond less. (Government strengthens social security, medicare, cost of prescription drugs, etc. because seniors are more politically involved)

-Efficacy: belief that your voice matters and mobilization

Chapter 9.  Political Parties

What happens at DNC and RNC (ie: nominating conventions)?

Presidential and vice presidential nominees are selected

Super delegates- pledged v. unpledged delegates at nominating conventions

Super delegates: party leaders and elected officials who become delegates to the national convention without having to run in primaries or caucuses. (Unpledged)

-Pledged delegates: delegates awarded through presidential primaries and caucuses with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the convention

 Why would the organized party want “super-delegates?”

Primary election  (closed v open primary and caucus)   vs.   General Election

Primary elections: help to determine the nominee from a particular party 

Closed primary: election where only registered party members vote for a party nominee

Open primary: election where all voters (regardless of party) vote for the party’s nominee

Why did MN move to a closed primary in Presidential elections? 

Good for campaign strategy

Two-Party System— why is our 2 party system so strong compared to other democracies?

1. In many other systems parties control access to the ballot. In most American states, party leaders don’t select people to run for office; by law, those people are chosen by primary election.

2. In preliminary system, legislative/executive branches are unified not divided like in US. Winner take all system

3. Federal government system in US decentralizes political authority, and therefore political party organizations

Split-Ticket vs Straight Ticket voters

Split ticket voter: votes some democratic and republican candidates

Straight ticket voter: votes all democratic/republic (more polarized)

Party Realignments (3 examples)

1. Control Shift: (1932) complete swap of majority because of a new issue or dissatisfaction in current party

2. Regional Shift: regions shift from blue to red (Civil war and blue wall)

3. Party Ideology shifts: Conservation of Environment, States’ Rights, Civil Rights, Gun Laws, Farmer party?

Be able to state the role of the Political party as an: organization, set of leaders, label

A party exists as an organization that recruits and campaigns for candidates, as a label in the minds of voters, and as a set of leaders who try to organize and control the legislative and executive branches of government.

Chapter 10.  Elections and Campaigns

Iowa Caucus and “Super Tuesday”  (how front loading and bandwagon effect are related to these two?) 

Iowa Caucus: highly anticipated since it's the first one

“Super Tuesday”: date for widespread primary elections (March)

Front loading: Every state wants their primary to “matter,” and make that happen by moving their state’s primary to the beginning of the calendar. (may benefit state parties, but harms voters)

Bandwagon effect: the boost a candidate gains in future contests after an election victory (especially and upset win).

Reasons for rise in cost of elections here vs. abroad

Elections in America have not one but two crucial phases, getting nominated and getting elected. Abroad, winning a party’s nomination involves organizational decision and the party decides if they want to let you run.

Battleground states/ swing states most competitive states in the presidential election that either candidate could win.

Incumbent (define)--- also, what are the reasons for the “incumbency advantage” for a Congressional election?

Incumbent: the person already holding an elective office

• Advantage: incumbents tend to do better than other similar challengers especially in congressional elections (Ability to serve their constituency, claim every bridge, road, and project, and enjoy much more fundraising advantages)

Campaign strategies:  

1. Assigning credit or blame: overall health of the nation -economy is central predictor

• Prospective voting: voting for a candidate because you favor their ideas on issues

• Retrospective voting: voting for a candidate because you like their past action

-what issue is typically most central in retrospective voting? Economy

2. Judge of character: someone with the right traits to lead, leadership, integrity, honest 

• Valence issues: where everyone agrees, does candidate embrace the same view

• Positional issues: where rival candidates have opposing views and divide voters

3. Activating partisans: both parties still need to “court independent voters” to win

• “Campaigns remind Democrats why they are Democrats rather than Republicans, and remind Republicans why they are Republicans rather than Democrats.”

“Surge and Decline” phenomenon between General and Midterm elections (co-tails definition)

President’s party tends to do better at the top of the ticket (surge), but do worse in midterms because voters are less enthusiastic and don’t vote.

Soft Money v. Hard money v.  “Dark Money”

Soft money: not directly to a specific candidate or party (no limit)

Hard money: to a specific candidate or party (limited)

Dark money: donor is hidden and untraceable (done under 501(c)4 non-profit status)

Rules and function of:  PACS vs. SUPERPACS vs. 501(4)c nonprofit groups 

PACS: Committees set up by a corporation, labor union, or interest group that raise and spend campaign money from voluntary donations.

SUPERPACS: raises and spends unlimited amounts of money and cannot directly work with a candidate or party.

Know:  Citizens United v FEC (2010)--- what was the effect of this?

What is the job of the FEC? Federal Election Commission. Disclose campaign finance information and enforce financing laws on contributions.

Campaign television ads -  What is the conclusion as to whether or not they work?  What are the two main features?  What is referred to as the “spiral effect” ?  

Television ads: appeal to emotions and make negative attacks (larger effect on people who are more informed and engaged politically)

• Spiral effect: negative ads don’t work as well when evenly matched because negative cancels out another (uncountered ads work)

McConnell vs. FEC --- how this challenged the 60 day timing of ads law from McCain Feingold law of 2002, what the ruling said, and how issue advocacy ads are a potential loophole

McConnell v. FEC (5-4) -challenged the McCain- Feingold Campaign finance Law

• Ruling: upheld the law and the rule that Ads placed by “soft money” cannot mention a candidate’s name within 60 days before an election. You just can’t say vote for this person 

• 2007 altered verdict: “issue advocacy” Ads are okay! (Ads that name a candidate and run during an election time frame, but don’t tell voters who to vote for)

Chapter 11.  Interest Groups

Interest Groups: an organization of people sharing a common interest or goal that seeks to influence public policy

Lobbyists: an individual who tries to influence public policy on behalf of an interest group

Incentives to join: something of value one can’t get without joining an organization

• Solidary Incentives: social rewards or status leading people to join political institution

• Material Incentives: money or things valued in monetary terms

• Purposive Incentives: benefit coming from serving a cause or principal

What is referred to as the “Upper Class Bias?” believe interest groups in Washington reflect this. 

Input v output advantages

• Input: Well off people join interests groups more, companies with more money can hire more lobbyists, and interests of Big Business are over-represented in Washington

• Output: A lot of interest groups cancel each other out and don’t get what they want

“Free-rider” problem  

• Individuals benefit even if they are not a member, so why would they contribute to the organization? (happens when an interest group works on behalf of a public good (ie: clean water)

What does the interest group “Emily’s List” focus on? Work to elect more women to government

What does the interest group “Sierra Club” focus on? Emergence of conservation big in 1930s

Know:  the Janis Supreme Court Decision and its effect on Unions 

Janus v. American Federation of State, Country, and Municipal Employees

• Janus wins and people can choose if they want to be part of a union

• Public sector Unions may no longer collect “Fair-Share” union dues for collective bargaining.

What strategy does public interest lobby groups use to make greater change (like the NAACP, ACLU, Human Rights Campaign?) Bring forward lawsuits overthrow a law etc.

What does it mean that purposive groups strive better under a “hostile administration?”

Groups with Purposive (ideological) incentives -  thrive during Administrations or time periods “hostile to their cause” 

Review the Activities of Interest Groups :  “outsider tactics” (ie:  lawsuits, grassroots mobilization, encouraging public pressure, “visibility” etc)   v. “insider tactics”   (ie:  ratings, research, hearings, direct lobbying, drafting legislation etc.)

Outsider strategy: media allow groups to direct citizens to contact their members of congress to make their opinion’s known

1. Bring forward Lawsuits -typical strategy for public-interest groups! (ACLU, NAACP, etc.)

2. Grassroots lobbying: encourage public to send letters, call a representative, sign a petition, and Visibility -getting people to show up at the Capitol.

3. Organizing social movements: marches, strikes, sit ins, protests

Insider strategy: work closely with a few key members of congress

1. Direct Lobbying:  Follow bills closely and meet with officeholders about public policy

2. Drafting Legislation:  many interest groups draft legislation for members of Congress to sponsor and introduce.

3. Research: interest groups (“Think Tanks”- example: Pew Research Center) prepare condensed research reports which they give to elected officials to persuade them.

4. Hearings: often testify before congressional hearings -opposition or support of legislation

5. Ratings: Grade each lawmaker on their voting record

“Revolving Door” problem: every year, hundreds of people leave jobs in federal government to take private industry positions (gives private interests a way of improperly influencing government about policy)

Chapter 12. Media - selective parts (6 pages)

1846 -Popular Press

• Printing press: Associated Press (AP) the same story is disseminated to every paper.  Has to be short, and nonpartisan

• Urbanization: Cities can support a paper! Birth of local newspapers. By 2009, many independently owned local newspapers out of business  

Birth of News Broadcasting

Today - only a small % of TV/Radio Stations are publicly owned  (ie: PBS, NPR, MPR)

• Declining Audience: Evening news audience cut in half from 1980 to 2016, especially those younger than 50.  

• 1920s radio and 1950s TV

Internet/Social Media, Echo chambers

(2017) ⅔ of adults get their news from social media.

Potential to inform Americans about politics BUT...in reality?

• “Fake News” and less “fact checking” than Newspapers.

• One side of the story - “echo chambers” = “Incestuous Amplification” The extreme reinforcement and/or overhyping of ideas and/or beliefs that occurs when like-minded people communicate with each other.

FCC (Federal Communications Commission) 

• Radio and TV 

Equal time rule: a station that sells time to one candidate, must sell equal to other candidates.

Fairness doctrine: if broadcasters aired one side of the story, they had to give equal time to opposing points of view.

• "Candidates are entitled to the same quantity, day part and price as their opponents in terms of airtime, unless it is bonafide news coverage.”

• FCC relies on the fact that there are so many competing news sources is enough to be fair to all sides of view.

Horse-race journalism  Media covers who is winning, more than the candidates’ positions (substantive coverage) on issues. Typically, the frontrunner gets more coverage

Media can affect what issues are most important. (decide which events/issues to present)

• Agenda-setting effect  (“Gate-keeping”)

The media influence the criterion issues by which the public evaluates political leaders.

• Priming Effect 

The media influences HOW the public perceives an issue in the news based on the avenue presented.

• The Framing effect what judgments make and tone of it

Because we have a distrust in our culture, the Media serves to maintain accountability.

• Media as  “Watchdog”  (Whistleblowers) people like when they investigate and cover scandals

Is media biased?

1. Most Americans think so.  (26% believe the facts presented;  20% think it is “independent in thought.”

2. “Liberal Majority” - Most reporters will admit to leaning liberal, and that is a real perception by the public, however the textbook reminds us that alone does not negate objectivity and balance norms of journalism.

3. Biased towards what will draw the largest audience ----->negative reporting  (ie : sensationalized news and Adversarial press - eager to reveal unflattering stories of politicians) “infotainment”

4. Selective perception- If you are conservative, you may not detect that Fox News is conservative, or conversely, if you are liberal, you may not think the NY Times is overtly liberal.