International Relationships

The situation in Japan

the Democratic Party suffered, 1 minister shigaru became a leader of minority government

the situation of France

a critical political paralysis and is at its fourth prime minister this year and no party with the majority in parlement

the situation of Germany

faces a political uncertainty after the chancellor lost a confidence vote and with new election next year the farm right party is expected to make it

The situation of democracy

faced a major test this year with more than 50 countries going for the national elections for presidency and parlement including vote for the European parlement

the fonctionnement of democracy

messy noisy, no clear winners

what is the democracy

is a reflexion of a polarised state of many moderns’ societies

Position of Macron

lost to parties to far left and far right leaving the parlement half strong with no working majority

Voters in Africa

turn it against rolling party and voted for opposition party which is the case for Ghana, Senegal, marasmus, Botswana (acceptation and no violence)

the situation of south Africa

lost the parliamentary majority and was forced to enter a coalition with the moderate party

the situation in India

India prime minister Narendra suffered a surprising loss of his majority and was forced to a coalition to retain power

the situation in Taiwan

elected William lei

the situation in Georgia

he ruling anti-European union held power in a disputed contest

the situation in USA

Donald Trump returned to the white house, the us are already in a process over the last ten years of a democratic decay and this election proved that decline

The situation in elections in Europe

there will be more MEPs on the far-right benches than before. Almost everywhere across Europe, nationalist groups have gained seats.

the situation for the countries that have joined the Union since its creation

the memory of nationalism is closer to home. In Spain and Portugal, memories of the Franco and Salazar dictatorships are still fresh.

the situation in central and Eastern Europe

communism still has a repellent eect, even if the far right is part of the political landscape in countries like Hungary and Poland

Where and when the world economic forum passed

Davos (Switzerland), It began on the very day of the 47ᵉ US President inauguration, in Washington D.C. For three days, the World’s leaders, gathered

the position of Javier Milei

Thanks to Trump, “Argentina has broken its chains”; now it's a matter of “restoring the greatness of the West”, was delighted to see the “slow emergence of an international alliance of nations that want to be free (…) from the wonderful Elon Musk

the position of Trump on environment

as soon as he took office, announced the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris climate agreement and the increase in oil drilling

the position of the south african president

whose country will chair the G20 in 2025, reiterated his commitment to climate agreements and his demand for financial aid from the richest countries to emerging countries for their energy transition.

the position of China Vice president

“Protectionism gets us nowhere, trade wars don't produce winners”, taking great pains to present China as a “responsible country, defender of international order”, indispensable for “facing up to global challenges”, was the dangers of unregulated international competition in AI

the position of European commission president Ursula

championed a more robust, independent and united continent

The position of trump on UE

plots potential tariffs on E.U. exports and complains, as he did yet again, about the European Union treating the US “very badly.”

the USA against Europe

other EU leaders fear protectionist measures coming

The East of Europe

Poland, the Baltic states and the Scandinavian countries fear that the US will withdraw its support for Ukraine and disinvest from OTAN

In germany and italy

a trade war that would damage an industry already in bad shape is to be avoided. We must "defend free trade as the basis of our prosperity" to avoid isolation

the futures consequences in Europe

• mean spending more on defense

• 23 of the 32 members of the Atlantic alliance devote at least 2% of their GDP to defense spending

• Only Poland and Lithuania are close to this target, but, for the others, the 3% threshold already appears minimal.

the position of the OTAN secretary

said it was imperative for any agreement with Moscow to ensure that the Russian army could not again cross Ukraine's borders; the best way to guarantee this, would be for Ukraine to join NATO but the situation is very complicated because the investments in defense in Europe is not equal at the others europeans countries

what to do to improve the situation in Europe

• belatedly recognized that defense spending will have to be increased

• the defense industrial base reorganized, and the resilience of the population increased

• this will involve painful budgetary sacrifices

What Trump said about Ukraine’s future

• calling for an end to the war in Ukraine and placing the onus on Russia to come to the table

• Kyiv was ready for negotiations

• “I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now and STOP this ridiculous War”

the position of Finnish President Stubb about the reconciliation U → R

• “carefully optimistic” about prospects for peace in Ukraine and the role Trump could play in brokering a truce

• It’s important that these negotiations begin with Ukraine from a position of strength

• fact that Trump wants to forge peace, and he wants to win peace

the position of analyst

believe neither side can win the bloody war of attrition and that a temporary ceasefire would probably take place in a context where tens of thousands of Russian troops still occupy a vast stretch of Ukrainian territory, necessity of “just peace”

the emerging consensus among Western officials

is that military aid must continue to bolster Ukraine’s hand at the negotiating table while Kyiv must also be offered sweeping commitments in defense from the West to avoid a resumption of conflict or further land grabs by Moscow

Zelensky and his allies, including neighbours in Eastern Europe

hope for NATO membership, but accession to the alliance was not favoured by the Biden administration, and even less so by Trump

In order to avoid that, Stubb explained, Trump and all other interlocutors for Ukraine would have to defend three principles

1. ensuring that Kyiv isn’t bullied into becoming a Moscow client after a peace deal

2. retains the sovereign ability to decide whether it wants to join the European Union and NATO, and

3. does not concede any of its claims over the territory captured by Russian forces.

Russian visions for peace

formula, increasingly pushed by officials from Putin on down, involves a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine outside of OTAN, with Russia keeping the territory it has already annexed

Military market : North America

• maintain their global dominance with $316.8 billion in arms sales, representing almost 50% of the world total

• Lockheed Martin ($60.8 billion), RTX and Northrop Grumman benefit from Pentagon contracts, notably for F-35 fighters and space systems

• 7.9% decline in 2022

• sales are up 2.5% in 2023

Europe and Russia : impact of the war in Ukraine

• In Europe, sales reached $121 billion (+0.9%)

• Ukraine recorded an increase (+68.7%, 2.2 billion)

• In Russia, sales rose by 39.7% to 25.5 billion, thanks to strong demand and exports to Iran and Africa

Asia-Pacific Ocean: a booming region

• China dominates with 108 billion (+2.7%), supported by military modernization and targeted exports

• South Korea reaches 11 billion (+38.6%), thanks to exports to Poland

• Japan, amid a strategic transformation, posted 10 billion (+35.4%), marked by an increase in defense spending

Middle East: emerging players

• Companies in the region reached 17.9 billion (+11%). Israel (13.6 billion, +15.2%) stands out with systems such as the Iron Dome

• Turkey (+22%, 5.5 billion) is making headway with its Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, consolidating the Middle East's growing position in the global market

Rise and fall of ISIS (2014–2019)

• rapidly took control of large areas in Iraq and Syria, declaring a "caliphate."

• The group committed mass atrocities, including genocide against the Yazidis

• By 2019, ISIS lost nearly all its territory, though it continues low-level insurgent activity

Syrian Civil War : (2011-Present)

which began in 2011, continued with multiple factions involved :

• The Assad regime (backed by Russia and Iran)

• Rebels (supported by Turkey and some Western countries)

• Kurdish forces (backed by the U.S.)

By 2023, Assad has largely regained control, but Syria remained unstable and finally the regime collapsed at the end of 2024

Political Transition and National Conference

• By December 8, they entered Damascus, leading to Assad's departure from the country

• Mohammed al-Bashir, former leader of the Syrian Salvation Government in Idlib, was appointed as head of the interim government, with the transitional period expected to last until March 1, 2025

• 1st January 2025 : focused on constitutional and administrative issues, the announcement of the dissolution of armed factions, with plans for their integration into a new national army

yemen civil war (2024- Present)

• A Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 to restore the government

• one of the worst humanitarian crises, with famine and disease

• In 2024, Yemen's Houthi rebels significantly escalated their military activities, impacting both regional stability and international maritime operations => This assistance has transformed them from a localized armed group into a formidable military organization

Intensified Maritime Attacks :

• the Houthis launched numerous attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

• 134 attacks were carried out from Houthi-controlled areas against merchant and commercial vessels, as well as U.S. and U.K. warships (missiles, drones, and explosive-laden boats, leading to significant disruptions in global shipping routes)

International Military Response :

• United Kingdom initiated joint military operations targeting Houthi infrastructure

• December 30 and 31, 2024, U.S. Central Command forces targeted multiple Houthi sites in Sana'a and coastal areas

Regional Impact and Ongoing Threat

• disrupted maritime commerce but have also heightened regional tensions

• have prompted international military responses and have drawn attention to the group's growing influence and capabilities

• remain a significant and evolving threat in the Middle East

Iran and U.S. Tensions :

• In 2015, the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was signed to limit Iran's nuclear program as a great success of President Obama’s diplomacy

• In 2018, the U.S. (under Trump 1) withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions

• A cycle of attacks and assassinations followed

Iran and Israel Tensions :

• have significantly escalated since 2014 (proxy conflicts, cyber warfare, assassinations, and direct military confrontations)

• Israel has repeatedly bombed Iranian positions in Syria to prevent Iranian entrenchment

• Between 2020–2023 Israel intensified strikes in Syria, targeting Iranian weapons shipments and senior commanders

• Israel has been very hostile to the Iran Nuclear Deal signed as an international agreement in 2015

• In 2018, the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal

Turkey and Kurdish Conflicts

• Turkey launched multiple military operations against Kurdish forces in Syria

• Turkish intervention complicated the U.S.-Kurdish alliance against ISIS

Lebanon (2019–2021):

• Economic collapse led to mass protests and government instability

• Beirut Port Explosion occurred on August 4, 2020, and was one of the most devastating non-nuclear explosions in history

• Protests erupted in Lebanon, blaming government corruption and mismanagement for the tragedy

Iraq

anti-government protests erupted over corruption and Iranian influence

Iran

In 2022, nationwide protests followed the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman detained for allegedly violating hijab laws.

Saudi Arabia’s Transformation

• Social changes included allowing women to drive and expanding entertainment

• However, political repression remained strong

War in Gaza (and around) : 2014–2022: Periodic Escalations and Political Stalemates:

• Between 2014 and 2022, multiple escalations occurred, including the "Great March of Return" protest

• 2018–2019 and military confrontations in 2018 and 2019

War in Gaza (and around), 2023–2024: Major Escalation

• Hamas launched a large-scale terrorist assault on Israel

• 1,200 Israeli horrific deaths and approximately 250 hostages taken into Gaza

• the deadliest day in Israel's history

• Israeli Military Response: Israel responded with extensive airstrikes and a ground invasion of Gaza

• The conflict led to a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza

War in Gaza (and around), War around Israel

• Operations in Lebanon : July 2024: Following the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Mohammed Nasser in Tyre by an Israeli airstrike, Hezbollah retaliated with rocket attacks on Israeli positions

• In September 2024, Israel intensified its military campaign in southern Lebanon

• Operations in Syria : This move aimed to bolster Israel's defensive and offensive capabilities in these strategically significant areas (syria and Lebanon)

Concerned neighborhood

• Iran (Support for Palestinian Islamist militias, Regional Influence, Shia-Sunni Rivalry)

• Egypt (Maintaining Stability in the Region, about the spread of Islamist militancy, Mediating Ceasefires)

• Qatar (Financial Support for Hamas, Humanitarian Assistance, Humanitarian Advocacy)

• Saudi Arabia (Palestinian Solidarity, Geopolitical Considerations)

• Regional organisations and other Gulf States (support Palestinian statehood)

Future and return of peace ?

• After months of diplomatic attempts, a ceasefire agreement was concluded just before President Biden leaves the White House

• fragility of the ceasefire

The uncertain future of Gaza : trump position :

• could take control of Gaza, clear its tens of millions of tons of debris and make the territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East

• “some very bold, fresh, new ideas out on the table” to compel governments in the Middle East to “come with their own solutions.”

The uncertain future of Gaza : Israel position

• says it has begun preparations for the departure of Palestinians from Gaza despite widespread 

The uncertain future of Gaza : Palestine

• Gaza and elsewhere have emphatically rejected Trump’s pitch as a prelude to their dispossession

• Arab governments, including Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, have all issued their separate warnings against plans that could jeopardize a Palestinian state or encourage further Israeli settlement of Palestine lands

The uncertain future of Syria

• Israel has launched airstrikes in Syria, targeting military assets and infrastructure, and has warned the new regime against attacking Israel or allowing Iran or its proxies to regain a foothold in the country

• France has reengaged with Syria

• Turkey's strategy in the Middle East appears to be focused on expanding its influence in Syria

• On January 12, 2025, Saudi Arabia hosted a summit in Riyadh to discuss Syria's stabilization post-Assad

• Discussions centred on reconstruction, refugee repatriation, combating terrorism, and strengthening regional cooperation

• The United Nations anticipates that around one million Syrian refugees may return to Syria in the first half of 2025

• UN emphasizes the need for careful assessment to ensure safe and voluntary returns, given the ongoing humanitarian challenges

The uncertain future of Lebanon

• facing a vacuum of authority after a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah

• the country's fragile sectarian balance is under pressure, and the opposition is struggling to unite under one platform

• The U.S. is pushing for political reform in Lebanon, but its overtures have only highlighted the limits of its influence in the region

The uncertain future of Iran

• that tensions between Iran and Israel are escalating

• life in Iran appeared to return to normal, with residents focused on the economy

• analysts believe that the attacks chipped away at Iran's deterrence, and the leadership may be forced to respond

Near and middle east situation

• 45k and 65k gaseous have been killed majority of building have been damaged, several HAMAS leaders have been killed

• Before trump: us has a lot of help to Egypt, keep monarchies happy like Jordania or Morocco with us foreign policy

• With trump: prop up LCC in Egypt, keep the monarchies happy, provoke iran, support israel even more than biden did, to continue bombing yemen and do hotels in gaza to turn it into cote d’azur of the middle east

Key Principles of the Two-State Solution :

• Borders: The establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, based on pre-1967 borders, with potential land swaps.

• Jerusalem: Jerusalem should be the capital of both states, with a special status for religious sites.

• Refugees: A solution for Palestinian refugees, including the right of return or compensation.

• Security: Measures to ensure the security of Israel, as well as a stable and secure Palestinian state.

Challenges to the Two-State Solution :

• Israeli Settlements: Israeli settlements in the West Bank are a key obstacle. The continued expansion of settlements undermines the possibility of a contiguous Palestinian state.

• Jerusalem: Both sides claim Jerusalem as their capital, and its status remains one of the most contentious issues.

• Political Divisions: The division between Fatah (Palestinian Authority) and Hamas complicates the establishment of a unified Palestinian government, hindering the peace process.

• Security: Israel’s security concerns, particularly regarding Hamas, make them hesitant to relinquish territory that could be used for military operations against Israel.

What are the Oslo Accords ?

were a historic attempt to create a framework for peace, marking the first time Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) formally recognized each other

Key Points of the Oslo Accords :

• Mutual Recognition: Israel recognized the PLO as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and the PLO recognized Israel’s right to exist.

• Palestinian Authority (PA): The accords created the Palestinian Authority, which was given control over parts of the West Bank and Gaza.

• Gradual Process: The goal was to negotiate a final status agreement over the next five years, including the issues of borders, refugees, and Jerusalem.

Why Oslo Failed ?

• Lack of Final Agreement: The key issues—Jerusalem, refugees, settlements, and borders—were deferred to final-status talks, but no comprehensive agreement was reached.

• Violence and Distrust: Both sides engaged in violence during the implementation of the Oslo process, leading to a breakdown in trust.

• Assassination of Yitzhak Rabin: The assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (1995) by a Jewish extremist further undermined the peace process

Who and why composed the middle East Quartet ?

the UN, European Union, U.S., and Russia → was established to mediate the peace process and facilitate dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians.

Key Efforts by the Quartet :

A plan that outlined steps towards a two-state :

• Coordinating Humanitarian

• Diplomatic Efforts

Challenges (the quartet)

• The Quartet members often have differing positions on how to approach the conflict

• Despite efforts from the Quartet, the peace process has stalled for years, and their efforts to pressure both sides have often been ignored

Arab peace initiative

proposed by Saudi Arabia, offered Israel full normalization of relations with Arab states in exchange for a withdrawal from the occupied territories and the creation of a Palestinian state

Key Points of the Arab Peace Initiative :

• Normalization with Arab States: The proposal called for Arab countries to establish normal diplomatic, economic, and political relations with Israel.

• Palestinian State: A sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, alongside Israel.

• Comprehensive Peace : The initiative called for a comprehensive peace agreement in the region, including resolving the refugee issue

Challenges of the Arab peace initiative :

• Israeli Rejection: Israel rejected the initiative, citing concerns over the right of return for Palestinian refugees and security issues related to a Palestinian state.

• No Movement on the Ground: Although some Arab states have supported the initiative, the lack of concrete action has made it difficult to progress.

Challenges : Support for Israel’s Security

• The U.S. is Israel’s most powerful ally

• military aid (over $3 billion annually in military aid, including advanced weapons systems like the Iron Dome)

• diplomatic support in the UN

Challenges : Balancing the Peace Process :

• he U.S. has historically attempted to mediate peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians

• The U.S. has been accused of enabling Israel’s military operations and settlement expansion in the West Bank

Challenges : Recent Shifts (Post-2014):

• The Trump administration (2017-2021) took a more overtly pro-Israel stance, including recognizing Golan Heights annexation by Israel

• The Biden administration (since 2021) has continued strong support for Israel while also calling for a two-state solution and condemning violence from both sides, including Hamas’ attacks

The Role of Other International Actors : European Union (EU) and France

• The EU and France support a two-state solution and has been active in providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians and facilitating peace talks

• divisions within the EU make it difficult to achieve a unified position on the conflict

The Role of Other International Actors : Russia and China:

• Russia has historically been more sympathetic to Palestinian positions

• China has supported the Palestinian cause in its diplomatic statements, especially in the UN

The Role of Other International Actors : International Civil Society:

• continue to play an important role in advocating for Palestinian rights, monitoring violations, and pushing for accountability for Israeli and Hamas violations

• grassroots movements, including the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement, have gained momentum in recent years, calling for economic sanctions against Israel in response to settlements and human rights abuses

Why the peace process stalled?

• Deep-Rooted Mistrust: Both Israelis and Palestinians harbour deep mistrust due to decades of violence, displacement, and unfulfilled promises

• Political Divisions: Palestinian political division between Hamas (in Gaza) and Fatah (in the West Bank) weakens the Palestinian negotiating position

• Israeli Settlements: Continued Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank undermines any potential for a contiguous Palestinian state

• Regional Instability: The broader Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics—particularly the influence of Iran, the rivalry between Arab states, and the involvement of global powers—complicate the situation

What’s Needed for Progress ?

• Mutual Trust-Building

• International Pressure

What that happened during the collapse oh the communist bloc ?

• the United States occupied a position of absolute hegemony

• due to their undisputed supremacy in both economic and military matters

• This situation lasted as long as it took for China to emerge (extraordinary dimensions, geographically and demographically)

• A new global balance is taking shape around the economic and strategic rivalry between the two hegemonic powers, China and the United States

From Economic Globalization to Geopolitical Fragmentation :

• The United States and China are now in a complex relationship of "coopetition"—a mix of cooperation and confrontation

• Chinese state capitalism appears both pragmatic and unwavering in contrast to the market economy promoted by liberal democracies, which are weakened by deindustrialization, social decline, and rising populism

• EU is still working to coordinate an industrial, technological, and green policy despite his leaderships (the EU is becoming increasingly dependent on the US)

• the dominance of the U.S. dollar and the extraterritorial reach of American law are increasingly challenged by many countries, not just the BRICS+

• india : It has successfully deployed its soft power, particularly since 2013 with the Belt & Road Initiative(BRI)

Some numbers (US China)

• 11% of China’s exports are destined for the United States

• $800 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds

the definition of transactionalism

aims to redefine the foundations of U.S. international engagement by making this commitment conditional on concessions provided by Washington's partners

Devastating trade war

• As President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on the nation’s three top trading partners took effect in March 2025 VS China, Mexico and Canada announced that they would retaliate with levies of their own

• Trump is now increasing tariffs on Chinese products by 10 percentage points tax on some Chinese products to 45 percent

• He’s also imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada (15 percent tax on U.S. goods including chicken, wheat and corn by China)

• China blacklisted more than 20 U.S. companies (were placed on a list that bars them from importing goods that can be used for military purposes)

• Canadian Prime minister Justin Trudeau said finding a resolution to the trade fight would be his top priority (impose tariffs on roughly $107 billion worth of U.S. products)

• Mexico’s economy is heavily dependent on trade with the United States, and the tariffs could spark a recession (80 percent of Mexico’s exports go to US)

Taiwan’s Future

• An economically independent America from China will be better positioned to confront the latter militarily in the event of a conflict in the Pacific (strategic)

• The Trump I administration is often considered the most Taiwan-friendly US administration in modern times

• The consequences of war in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating for the region and the world

• In2022, Democrat Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused China of speeding upplans to seize Taiwan

• In January 2025, Chinese leader Xi Jinping used his New Year’s address to project confidence about the country’s economic outlook and repeat threats about taking over Taiwan

• Trump has promised to pull the United States back from the world stage, China is portraying itself as a responsible global leader

Training and economic policy (Biden Trump)

• BIDDEN --> during the bidden administration and he maintained many of the terrorists that had been imposed by trump in his first term, so he focused on targeted tariffs to protect strategic industries, but his administration has emphasized more multilateral engagement, and it worked closely to allies to counter Chinas economic practices

• TRUMP→For the trump administration he focuses on more unilateral economicactions against China and among written policies, he increased the China's tariffs import and this behavior has brought some concerns about potential retaliation and impact on global economics

Foreign aid and global influence (Biden Trump)

• BIDDEN: rebuilding alliances and provide the army to bring global influence, support global health and infrastructure project to offer alternatives Chinas belt and road initiative

• TRUMP: the administration has taken a way more isolation and freezing foreign aid and halting operations of the us

The case of Taiwan (Biden Trump)

• BIDDEN: maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity supported Taiwan self- defense capability without indorsing independence and engaged and high-level dialogue with Chinese officials to manage tensions and avoiding escalation

• TRUMP: the state département has revised its china webpage and left out major references to cooperation with China and now focuses on trade issues and it has also removed the statement “we do not support Taiwan independence”

Military and security (Biden Trump)

• BIDDEN : emphasis on military alliances n the indo pacific to counter china’s growing military

• TRUMP : focused on strengthening domestic military and capability and the labor union have urged trump to improve american ship building to counter china’s dominance. Reinforcing national defense industry

Bilateral security :

•  with Japan this alliance between us and japan remains a cornerstone of regional, and recently met in 2024 to reaffirm their vision for free and open indo pacific region

•  Us and south Korea have been continuing to strengthen their defense partnership

•  Us and Australia they deepened their defense cooperation through initiative and agreements to bolster Australia northern defensive ability

• US and Philippine's : agreements to enhance corporations to conduct joint military

• Us and Thailand : Thailand is an ally of the us and cooperate on a variety of security initiative with joint military exercise and capacity program Multilateral Partnership

Quadrilateral security dialogue ( quad)

Comprised with Australia, USA and Japan, it addresses security challenges and aims at promoting a free and open indo-pacific and it also conduct joint military exercises

Trilateral security pact

Announced in august 2023 and brings together Japan, us, and south Korea the goal is to bolster (improve) cooperation, and the sales, fans intelligence sharing, and regional stability

Is the usa more powerful than China in the military capacities ?

Defense expentiture : US : 916md dollars in defense and this represent 3.4% of the us GDP ; China : 296md dollars in defense and that count for 1.7% china’s GDP

Military capabilities : US : comprehensive nuclear triad ; China : in 2024 over 600 operational nuclear warheads with projections

Countries naval forces : USA : 292 ships and submarines ; China : 370 surface ships and submarines including two aircrafts carriers

Chinses Pov on Taiwan future

• wants a peaceful reunification

• reaffirmed that Taiwan is a federal part of China, and is for a peaceful method to achieve reunification but will use it if necessary