Lecture 1 – Thinking in Social Change

What is Social Change? 

Social change refers to long‑term transformations in social structures, institutions, norms, and patterns of behavior. 

Types of Social Change - Exogenous social change

Social change caused by external factors to the social system. 

Characteristics: 

• Comes from outside the system 

• Often sudden and disruptive 

• Not generated by internal social dynamics 

Classic example: 

• The Black Death 

Other example: 

• China’s One‑Child Policy (state‑imposed demographic intervention) 

Types of Social Change - Endogenous social change

Definition: Social change generated by internal dynamics of the system itself. 

Characteristics: 

• Self‑reinforcing or cyclical 

• Emerges from population structure, economic incentives, or social behaviour 

Classic example: 

• Easterlin’s Birth and Fortune argument 

⚠ Exam tip: You should be able to clearly distinguish exogenous vs endogenous change and give named examples. 

Endogenous Change Case Study how economic variables, like income and prices, influence human behavior and well-being: What is Easterlin's Birth and Fortune argument?

Under certain conditions, relative birth cohort size has powerful and long‑lasting effects on people’s life chances and social behaviour. 

Large birth cohort → crowded labour market → lower wages for young men → delayed marriage, lower fertility, more women working → smaller next generation. Produces a ~40-year demographic cycle.

What is the difference between a cohort fertility rate and the Total Fertility Rate?

Cohort fertility rate = Measures the actual number of children a specific group of women (a "cohort," typically born in the same year) has had by the end of their reproductive lives.

TFR = hypothetical children a woman would have based on a single year's age-specific rates (how many babies they had at each specific age) (period measure).

Assumptions of the Easterlin Argument 

The cycle depends on: 

• Restricted immigration 

• Stable economic demand 

• Limited economic shocks 

• Younger and older workers not being close substitutes 

Why it worked post‑1945: 

• Strong immigration controls 

• Keynesian economic stability 

Why it weakens today: 

• High migration 

• Greater economic volatility 

• Welfare state cushioning income shocks 

• Permanent changes in women’s roles 

how economic variables, like income and prices, influence human behavior and well-being - Alternatives to Easterlin’s argument - Becker’s Independence Argument

Key ideas: 

• Marriage is voluntary and based on gains from specialisation 

• Traditional division of labour maximised gains 

Social change: 

• Women’s education ↑ 

• Gender wage gap ↓ 

• Less specialisation → less incentive to marry 

Explains: 

• Rising divorce 

• Marriage postponement 

Limitation: 

• Struggles to explain the 1950s baby boom