10_Global Demography & Migration

Demography

• Study of statistics illustrating the changing structure of human populations

• Births, deaths, income, incidence of disease

• Study of human population dynamics

• Births + Deaths + Migration

  • Big 3 = population stability or change

Crude Birth and Death Rate

Annual number of live births or deaths per 1000 people

General Fertility Rate

• Annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age

• Childbearing age → ages 15-49 or ages 15-44

Infant Mortality Rate

• Death among children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births

Life Expectancy Rate

Number of years which an individual at a given age can expect to live at present mortality levels

Total Fertility Rate

Annual number of live births per women for the entire span of her childbearing life

Gross Reproduction Rate

Number of daughters born within a woman’s reproductive life at current age-specific fertility rates

Population

• People or organisms living in a given geographic area

• Population Dynamics → size, age, sex structure, mortality, reproductive behavior, growth of population studied

• Population Density → Number of people or organisms per unit of area

Overpopulation

• Carrying Capacity

• Maximum number of individuals that the environment can sustain

• Occurs when the environment can no longer sustain a population

Malthusian Catastrophe

• Thomas Robert Malthus (economist, philosopher)

• Population of the World → geometrically

• Production of Food → arithmetically

• Results to a world that cannot meet the basic necessities of its population

BR (Birth Rate) Solution

Lowering Birth Rate

DR (Death Rate) Solution

Ways to raise death rates

Solving the Population Problem

• BR or DR solution

• Ideal ratio = 1 birth : 1 death

• Advancements in medicine and quality of life improved life expectancy over the years

• Increasing food production by technological advancements is simply delaying the inevitable

Trends in Population Growth

• Neo Malthusian → “sustainable” population and how to achieve it

• Even if death rates are declining, population is still growing

• Earth’s Carrying Capacity = 7.7 to 12 billion

• Optimum Population should be the focus

  • Desired quality of life and the resultant per-capita impacts of attaining that lifestyle on the planet’s life support systems

• “Best size” population, not the largest

Development as Population Control

• UN Population Fund → promote birth control in developing countries

• Feminists welcomed wide availability of contraception as an opportunity to avoid unwanted pregnancies

• “Development is the best contraceptive”

Demographic Transition

• Shows why countries go through rapid population growth (or decline)

• Societies progress into 4 (sometimes 5) stages

Stage 1

Pre-industrial society, birth and death is roughly in a balance (equal)

Stage 2

Death rates drop, improved life spans (medicine)

Stage 3

Birth rates fall (stable death rate)

Stage 4

Low birth rates, low death rates

Stage 5

Possibly falling or rising death rate, low death rate

Philippines — Young Population

• Stage 3 of demographic transition

• Falling birth rates but exponentially growing and already high fertility rate

• High dependency ratios relative to working age population = DISADVANTAGED

• Small working age population but operates in relatively low capital and low rates of investment

• e.g. Thailand — lowering birth rate but di yumayaman

Reason for having children

• Insurance → reserve pool

• Cost of raising children is low

• Guarantee of material and social assistance

• Affirmation of family, gender fulfillment, generational continuation, expression of religious principles, vehicle for marital bonding

• Play catch up → some start childbearing at an older age

• Ignorance of birth control methods

How to lower the demand

• Reduce the death rates further by investing in social services

• Increase the ‘relative cost’ of child rearing

• Set up mechanisms of social protection to reduce the need to support parents in their old age

• Incentivize small family sizes

• Eliminate legal obstacles to birth control, actively support family planning

Migration

• Movement of people from one place to another for various reasons

Daily Migration

Commuting from home to workplace/school

Seasonal Migration

Migration related to agriculture

Permanent Migration

Migration for a better job opportunities, better quality of life in a different place for a longer period of time

Reasons for migration

• Economic — better job opportunities

• Political — civil wars, conflicts, need for asylum

• Environmental — disaster-driven migrations (e.g. climate change)

From the Sending Country (Theorized Effects of Migration)

• Remittances of money from abroad going back to the migrant’s home country → adds to the circulation of money

• Brain drain as professionals and highly-skilled people move elsewhere to find better opportunities → country is losing its highly skilled people

In the Host Country (Theorized Effects of Migration)

• Addresses skill shortages

• Decreases domestics wages in the country

• Adds up to public welfare burden

Push Factors of Migration

• Negative

• Force people to migrate to another country

• Poverty, war, lack of economic opportunities

• Poor public services

Pull Factors of Migration

• Positive

• Not present in the migrant’s country of origin

• "'attractions”

• BETTER job opportunities, BETTER quality of life

Challenges to Migration

• Human Trafficking

• Terrorism

• Increased Racism

• Abuse

Human Trafficking

Recruitment, transportation, transferring, harboring, or receipt of persons by means of threat or force for exploitative reasons

Increased Racism

Hatred against the migrant population rooted in supremacist thinking or also nationalist sentiment (e.g. stealing our jobs)

Terrorism

Threat as a result of various terrorist attacks across the world lead people to look at migrants with a preconceived notion

Abuse

Treatment as ‘second class’ citizens, poor wages, poor working conditions, substinence, and human right abuses

Populism

• Populus → ‘the people’

• Describes both distinctive political movements and particular tradition of political thought

Populism as a movement

Described as populist by their claim to support the common people in the face of ‘corrupt’ economic or political elites

Populism as a political tradition

Reflects the belief that the instincts and wishes of the people provide the principal legitimate guide to political action

Left Wing Populism

• Conceives people in class terms

• Prioritizes socio-economic concerns such as poverty, inequality, and job insecurity

• “Egalitarian Populism”

Right Wing Populism

• Us vs Them / Normal vs Rich

• View the people in narrower and often ethnically restricted terms

• Focuses on matters of identity thus on immigration, crime, and corruption

• “National Populism” and “Authoritarian Populism”

Populists Across the World

• Duterte (Philippines)

• Trump (USA)

• Le Pen (France)

• Bolsonaro (Brazil)

• Meloni (Italy)

Common about Populists

• Us vs Them

• Anti-establishment sentiments

• Strong anti-migration policies and rhetorics (except PH)

Anti-Immigration

More often, people support curtailing this on the basis of the ff

• They are ‘stealing’ their jobs

• Cultural identity, nationalist reasons, demographic change

• A security threat

• Frustration on globalization