Voting behaviours and media

James Callaghan (TENURE)

1976-1979

Margaret Thatcher (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

1979-1990

1979- 43 majority

1983- 144 majority

1987- 102 majority

John Major (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

(Won a leadership campaign) 1990-1997

1992- 21 majority

Tony Blair (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

1997-2007

1997- 179 majority

2001- 167 majority

2005- 66 majority

Gordon Brown (TENURE)

2007-2010

David Cameron/Nick Clegg coalition (TENURE)

2010-2015

David Cameron (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

2015-2017

12 majority

Theresa May (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

2017-2019

Minority

Boris Johnson (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

2019-2022

80 majority

Liz Truss (TENURE)

2022-2022

Rishi Sunak (TENURE)

2022-2024

Keir Starmer (TENURE AND MAJORITY)

2024-now

2024- 174 majority

Now- ~157 majority

1979 POLICY/REGION

Thatcher won over Northern housewives, who were concerned about the weekly shop due to inflation.

1979 POLICY/CLASS

C2 workers switched to Conservatives due to concern about higher taxation that self employed people opposed. The Conservatives managed to win 41% of the C2 vote, up from 21% in 1974.

1979 OPINION POLLS/V&S

Opinion polls showed that Callaghan was the more popular figure to Thatcher, yet Thatcher won. Labour’s inability to handle industrial relations meant trust in them had fallen.

1979 MANIFESTO/CLASS

It included the Right to Buy scheme, which allowed those living in council houses the right to buy them, and restricted trade union power. The scheme supposedly won 11% of C2 workers from Labour to Conservatives.

1979 V&S

The Labour party had lost a vote of no confidence.

1979 MEDIA/V&S

The sun’s headline “Crisis, What Crisis?” during the Winter of Discontent suggested Callaghan was out of touch with ordinary voters.

1979 CAMPAIGN

Thatcher’s campaign had the clever slogan “Labour isn’t working” to show rising unemployment, and a party failing the people. In contrast, Labour implied that a woman couldn’t run the country.

1983 AGE (younger)

42% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative and 33% voted Labour.

1983 MANIFESTO

Labour MP Gerald Kaufman called their manifesto "The longest suicide note in history.” It included withdrawal from the common market, abolishing the HoL, and cancelling the Trident nuclear deterring.

1983 MANIFESTO2

The Conservative manifesto gave them a huge mandate to continue with privatisation.

1983 REGION

Labour won only 2 seats out of 110 in South England, as Conservatives appealed to Middle England, who were moving into the booming service sector economy that was replacing heavy industry, as the UK’s premier sector.

1983 VALENCE

Margaret Thatcher benefited from the Falklands. She won the war against Argentina and benefited from a surge in national pride and support for her, becoming known as the ‘Iron Lady.’

1983 miscellaneous- the progressive vote, strike action

• Labour was weakened by the creation of the Social Democratic Party, the SDP, which split the progressive vote.

• Neil Kinnock, leader of the Opposition at that time claimed “Thatcher was fortunate in her enemies.” Arthur Scargill played into her hands by not calling a vote on strike action during the miners strike.

1992 miscellaneous evidence

• Neil Kinnock shouted “we’re alright” at a Sheffield rally only a week before the election.

• Opinion polls massively wrongly predicted a Labour win.

• The Sun suggested Labour was going to win by a slim majority, potentially causing more Conservative voters to go out and vote- “It’s the Sun wot won it.”

1997 CLASS

Blair appealed massively to middle class voters with Third Way policies, so C2 workers switched back to Labour.

1997 V&S

The Tory party had the cash for questions, arms to Iraq, and mad cow disease scandals. They were blamed for the Black Wednesday crisis, where interest rates skyrocketed as Britain had to crash out of the ERM.

1997 V&S2

Conservative party PM John Major had faced a leadership contest in 1995 and the party was bitterly divided over Europe.

1997 VALENCE

Blair was seen as a charismatic and dynamic leader, while John Major was viewed as dull and uninspiring.

1997 MANIFESTO

Blair’s centrism was expressed in his manifesto. Labour’s pledge card included cutting class sizes, a windfall levy on privatised utilities, a welfare to work scheme, no rises in income tax, and punishment for persistent offenders- well received.

1997 POLICY

The most significant economic reform- Bank of England independence- was not mentioned in the manifesto.

1997- CAMPAIGN/POLICY

Blair’s “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” slogan, when he was shadow Home Secretary resonated. So did the soundbite “education, education, education”.

1997 CAMPAIGN

Conservative campaigns attempted to paint Blair as a socialist, which backfired with their “new Labour, new danger” campaign that had a picture of Tony Blair with devil eyes.

1997 MEDIA1

The Sun switched support from Conservatives to Labour with headline “The Sun Backs Blair”. Blair courted Rupert Murdoch, so Murdoch owned press switched allegiance.

1997 MEDIA2

Saatchi & Saatchi ran a campaign with the song “Things can only get better,” painting Blair as the Mondeo Man (an ordinary person).

2010 MEDIA/VALENCE

After the Leader’s debates, Lib Dems only increased their vote share by 1%, and lost seats compared to 2005, despite Nick Clegg’s exceedingly good performance and ‘Cleggmania’.

2010 MEDIA

‘WebCameron’, a 2010 Youtube channel by the Tories to make them seem more tech-savvy and appealing, was branded nothing more than a publicity stunt. Cameron was able to get away with saying that “too many tweets might make a twat” in the run-up to the 2010 general election.

2010 V&S/POLICY

Polls showed that immigration became an important issue to voters around the 2010 election, hence excessive Conservative pledges to limit net migration to the 10000’s.

2015 VALENCE

Miliband was seen as less likeable than Cameron.

2015 GENDER

Labour had a Woman to Woman pink minibus which visited 75 constituencies, trying to encourage women to vote.

2015 MEDIA

UKIP reached out to elderly voters on Facebook, which got them 3.8 million votes.

2015 MEDIA/VALENCE

Ed Milliband fell off the stage in 2015 in front of a live TV audience, but he gave a very strong performance when interviewed on TV by Jeremy Paxman.

2015 MEDIA2

Ed Miliband was widely ridiculed for the way in which he eats a bacon sandwich, due to a The Sun media campaign.

2015 OPINION POLLS

The closeness of the polls led to Conservative efforts to warn voters about the possibility of a Labour-SNP coalition, which may have given the Tories their small majority.

2015 TYPE OF VOTING

Tactical voting could have affected as much as 77 constituencies.

2015 SNP

In Scotland, SNP won 56 out of 59 seats.

2017 AGE

Labour enjoyed a majority of support from the 18-39 age category- youthquake.

2017 CLASS

41% of D/E voters opted for Conservative, 44% for Labour.

2017 OPINION POLLS

Conservatives were 20 points ahead of Labour at the start of the campaign.

2017 MEDIA1 #

Labour used social media more effectively with “daddy why do you hate me” videos, which was watched by 5.4 million people in 2 days, and # grime4Corbyn- youthquake.

2017 MEDIA2

May’s refusal to participate in a live TV debate became a means of attacking her. As Caroline Lucas, a Green party MP, said “the first rule of leadership is that you show up”.

2017 MEDIA3 The Sun and Daily Mail

The Sun’s headline “Don’t Chuck Britain in the Corbyn” and The Daily Mail’s 15 page anti-Labour spread the day before polling day- seemed to have little effect as Labour saw its largest increase in vote share since 1945.

2017 MEDIA4 YouGov Daily Mail

According to YouGov, some 74% of Daily Mail readers voted Tory in 2017.

2017 MEDIA5 circulation

The circulation of The Sun fell to only 1.6 million by the time of the 2017 election, down from over 3 million in 2010.

2017 MEDIA6 YouGov The Sun

According to You Gov, some 41% of Sun readers did not vote Tory in 2017, despite that paper backing them then.

2017 MEDIA/V&S

After Jeremy Corbyn participated in the 7 way debate and performed better than expected, Labour improved in credibility. Diane Abbott, the shadow Home Secretary, and her inability to explain how new police officers would be funded cast doubt on Labour’s competence.

2017 POLICY/MANIEFSTO

Tory plans to tax house owners to pay for social care (dementia tax) backfired. Labour promised to cut tuition fees likely cost May a majority.

2019 AGE (elders)

57% of 60 to 69 year olds voted Conservative.

2019 AGE (points)

For every 10 years older a person was, the likelihood that they would vote Labour decreased by 8 points.

2019 AGE/SALIENCE

56% of 18 to 24 year olds voted Labour. They promised to rid tuition fees whereas the opposition suggested cutting public services.

2019 ETHNICITY

64% of BAME voters backed Labour compared to 20% Conservative.

2019 REGION

Yvette Cooper said Labour looked like it was becoming only a party for the cities.

2019 MANIFESTO/V&S

Labour’s copious manifesto pledges on free broadband and nationalisation led to questions of affordability.

2019 REGION/SALIENCE1

The Conservatives increased its vote share by 6.1% since 2017 in areas that voted strongly to leave the EU. Its vote share actually fell by 2.9% in strong remain areas.

2019 VALENCE/OPINION POLLS/REGION

Labour’s Red Wall falling was due to trust. 43% of respondents in an opinion poll said they cast their vote based on leadership- dislike of Corbyn after he had failed to tackle anti semitism in his party and was soft on Russia after the Salisbury poisoning.

2019 EDUCATION

58% of those with GCSEs or below voted Conservative, while 43% of those with a degree or higher voted Labour.

2019 CAMPAIGN

BoJo on a JCB smashing a wall with words gridlock and saying Get Brexit Done.

2019 GENDER

65% of 18-24 yr old women voted Labour, but only 46% of men in that age.

2019 MEDIA

Conservatives targeted voters in marginal constituencies like Milton Keynes with anti-Corbyn ads showing him as soft on terror.

2019 MEDIA2

The Johnson-Corbyn TV debates ended in draws.

2019 Labour results

The worst Labour loss since the 1930’s.

2023 MEDIA (statistic)

In 2023, a survey showed that 10% of people aged 16+ received their news from TikTok.

2024 AGE (Tory)

5% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative. 43% of 65+ year olds and older voted Conservative.

2024 AGE (left-wing)

77% of 18-24 year olds voted for Labour, Green, or Lib Dem.

2024 ETHNICITY/SALIENCE

Labour was 18% down from the 2019 election in BAME votes from 64% in 2019 to 46% now. This may be due to issues such as Gaza, that BAME voters felt was salient.

2024 GENDER

34% men voted Labour, and 35% women. 20% of 55+ men voted for Reform in comparison to only 13% women, although 7% of both men and women voted for Green.

2024 REGION/V&S

Labour took 36 seats off the SNP (short term factor- SNP were embroiled in a criminal investigation into its finances and were blamed for poor public services).

2024 REGION1 (tory)

Tory strongholds in the South crumbled. The party lost 107 seats, with many areas switching not to Labour, but to Lib Dems.

2024 REGION2 (labour)

Labour retook the Red Wall.

2024 CLASS (Labour)

Labour won 36% of A/B voters and 32% of D/E voters. High and low income voters had similar voting patterns- class dealignment.

2024 CLASS (Reform)

17% of D/E and 25% of C2 voters voted for Reform compared to only 9% of A/B voters.

2024 CLASS (rent)

Those who pay rent rejected the Conservatives massively. Just 14% of those who pay rent to a private landlord voted Tory, owing to their failure to build lots of houses.

2024 CLASS (home)

Those who own their own home- 37% voted Tory, in comparison to 27% for Labour.

2024 EDUCATION

43% of those with a degree or higher opted for Labour, just 19% for Conservatives. Reform is considerably more popular among those with GCSEs or lower.

2024 CAMPAIGN/OPINION POLLS (predictions)

Labour landslide was predicted before the campaign got going.

2024 OPINION POLLS (ipsos)

Sunak‘s approval ratings in his last 6 months in office sunk. Ipsos net favourability poll showed Sunak at -36 compared to Starmers at +7 in July 2024. Partly because Sunak left a D Day commemoration early for an ITV interview.

2024 MANIFESTO1

Lib Dems targeted Tory well-to-do towns with high income professional types who didn’t like Brexit, and liked to swim in rivers but couldn’t because of water pollution. They called for a “Clean Water Authority” in their manifesto.

2024 MANIFESTO2

Labour manifesto had no surprises. Tory national service was largely laughed at.

2024 POLICY/VALENCE

New Right Tories pushed for a hardline stance on immigration, including leaving the ECHR, which went down poorly with the One Nation faction. Trust on the economy was critical.

2024 VALENCE

Tories were blamed for 2022 mini budget that involved tax cuts for the wealthy without a plan to plug the gaps in public finances that led to Bank of England intervention. Rising high interest rates also blamed on Conservatives. Also blamed for BoJo’s partygate.

2024 MEDIA1 (print media)

Role of print media is declining. Circulation of The Sun fell to an estimated 700000 in 2024 down from over 3 million in 2010. So, the Sun’s choice to switch from Tories to Labour had minimal impacts.

2024 MEDIA2 (tv debates)

TV debates not very impactful. 2024 debate highlighted Starmer’s potential weaknesses, but was forgettable. A snap YouGov pole after both TV debates between Starmer and Sunak showed no clear winner amongst respondents.

2024 MEDIA3 (tiktok)

Reform tried to appeal to young male voters, with Farage appearing on podcasts aimed at young men, and created tiktok videos mouthing Eminem lyrics. This garnered more interaction on TikTok than Corbyn’s, Labour’s Zarah Sultana, and Green’s Carla Denyer put together.

2024 MEDIA4 (ads)

Labour used tiktok ads before the campaign officially started, so were not subject to campaign spending restrictions.

2024 MEDIA/OPINION POLLS

In April 2024, a Survation poll showed that Labour led Tories by 6 points among readers of the Daily Express, arguably the most right wing tabloid in the UK.

2024 MEDIA/VALENCE (lettuce)

The media simply reinforced lack of trust in Conservatives, seen with the Daily Star’s lettuce vs Liz Truss’s premiership competition, in which the lettuce won.