AP GOPO - 4.5 - 4.6

Polling and Data

Public Opinion Polls

Surveys that measure the opinions, beliefs, or attitudes of the public on specific issues, candidates, or policies. These are often used to gauge public sentiment and inform decision making.

Benchmark Polls

Initial surveys are conducted at the beginning of a campaign to establish a baseline of voter opinions. These polls help candidates understand their starting position and guide campaign strategies.

Tracking Polls

Continuous surveys conducted over time to track changes in public opinion, often used during campaigns to monitor voter preferences to events.

Entrance Polls

Surveys conducted as voters enter polling places on election day, asking whom they intend to vote for and their reasoning.

Exit Polls

Surveys conducted with voters leaving polling places, asking how they voted and why. These polls are used to predict election outcomes and analyze voter demographics and motivations.

Approval Ratings (Presidential)

Measurements of public support for the president, typically expressed as a percentage of respondents who approve of the president's performance in office.

Focus Group’s

Small diverse groups of people brought together to discuss specific policies and issues in detail. These groups provide qualitative insights that complement polling data.

Methodology

Process and techniques used to design and conduct a poll, including sampling, question design, and data collection methods. Proper methodology ensures poll reliability and validity.

Framing Question

The way a poll question is worded, which can influence respondent’s answers. It can bias results by emphasizing certain aspects of an issue.

Sample

A subset of a population selected to represent the entire group in a poll. a well-chosen sample ensures that poll results reflect the views of the braoder population.

Random Sample

A sampling method where every individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected. Helps ensure poll accuracy and reduces bias.

Weighting (Stratification)

Adjusting poll results to account for underrepresented or overrepresented groups in the sample. This ensures that the sample more accurately reflects the demographics of the entire population.

Sampling Error

The difference between the results obtained from a sample and the actual values in the total population. This error can occur due to the size of the sample or how it was selected.

Non-attitudes

Responses given by individuals who do not have a real opinion or knowledge about the issue but feel pressured to answer anyways. Can distort poll results.

Uninformed

individuals who lack knowledge or awareness about a specific issue, often leading to superficial or inaccurate responses in surveys or polls.

Push-polling

a polling technique in which the questions are designed to influence respondents' opinions rather than gather unbiased information.

Bandwagon Effect

the tendency for people to adopt certain behaviors or beliefs because they perceive that others are doing the same. This phenomenon can significantly impact public opinion and voting behavior.

Horse-Race Coverage

Media is focused on poll standings and who is ahead or behind in a campaign, rather than substantive policy issues or qualifications.

Social Desirability Bias

When respondents give answers they believe are more socially acceptable, rather than their true opinions, to avoid judgement.

Candidate Error

Mistakes made by a candidate during a campaign that negatively affect their public image or poll standings.

Non response bias

Polling error that occurs when certain groups are less likely to respond to surveys, leading to unrepresentative results.