Public opinion

American Government

Public Opinion

The sum of individual beliefs and opinions

Political Socialization

Education about how the government works and which policies one should support; provided by parents, peers, schools, parties, and other national institutions. Ex. Family/friends, education, gender, race, religion, life events

Party

A major surge in partisan polarization has developed within the public

Political elites

Individuals who control significant wealth, status, power or visibility, and consequently, have significant influence over public debates

wars and other focusing events

wars inspire a strong sense of “we are all in this together” however, that tends to fade quickly

Opinion poll

A systematic study of a defined population, analyzing a representatives sample views to draw inferences about the larger publics view. Also termed as survey research

The random sample

A sample in which everyone in the population has an equal probability of being selected. 

Demographic groups

People sharing specific factors, such as age, ethnicity, religon, or country or orgin

Sampling frame

A designated group of people from whom a set of of poll respondents are randomly selected

Likely voters

Persons identified as probable voters in an upcoming election. Often preferred by polling organizations, but difficult to specify with great accuracy

Framing effects

The way the wording of a polling question influences a respondent

Push polls

A form of negative campaigning that masquerades as a regular opinion survey. They usually feature unflattering information about the opponent.

Margin of sampling error

The degree of inaccuracy in any poll, arising from the fact that surveys involve a sample of respondents from a population, rather than every member. 

Response bias

The tendency of poll respondents to misstate their view, frequently to avoid “shameful” opinions that might appear sexist or racists. 

Bandwagon effect

When people join a cause because it seems popular or support a candidate who is leading the polls. 

Boomerang effect

The discrepancy between candidates’ high poll ratings, and election performance, caused by supporters’ assumption that an easy win means they need to not turn out (if someone thinks their person will win, they won’t vote)

Benchmark poll

Conducted by a campaign as the race begins, these surveys provide a basis for comparison, or a “benchmark” for later polls

Straw polls

Informal polls carried out by local party organizations or news outlets; they often involve actual (non-binding) votes cast by party members. Media organizations (and the straw poll winners) tout the results, but they can be misleading.

Brushfire polls

Internal surveys conducted by a campaign once election season begins. They provide details about how a candidate is performing; if things are going poorly, the campaign can work to put out the bad new or “Brushfire” (which burns hot and spreads fast).

Exit polls 

Performed on election day, these surveys interpret voters as they depart the voting location. media reporters often rely on exit polls to call results for one or the other candidate, even if ballots haven’t been counted yet.

Nonattitudes

The lack of s stable perspective in response to opinion surveys; answers to question may be self-contradictory or display no ideological consistency

Information shortcuts

Cues about candidates and policies drawn from everyday life

Group think

The tendency among a small group of decision makers to converge on a shared set of views, which can limit creative thinking or solutions to policy problems. 

If public opinion is to guide government, three conditions must be met. 

1. The people know what they want and guide government decision making. 

2. The public can clearly communicate its desires to public leaders 

3. Political leaders pay attention to public views and respond

Survey research

Systematic study of a defined population, analyzing a representatives sample view to draw inferences about the larger publics view. Also termed, opinion poll.

Mandate

Political authority claimed by an election winner and reflecting the approval of the people.

Approval rating

A measure of public support for a political figure or institution

Policy agenda

 The issue that the media covers, the public considers important, and politicians address. Setting the agenda is the first step in political action.