Political context (Valence/Salient issues) (copy)

What are valence factors?

Relative success/failure of government policies- voters who vote on valence factors are making their decision based on whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the governments performance.

Why have Valence factors become more significant ?

The decline of class-based voting has led to valence issues becoming more significant in the result of a general election.

Why is governing competence important in securing the vote of swing voters?

If government seems unable to cope with the challenges it faces- swing voters will be more likely to vote for the opposition however if the government is competent- they will be less likely to vote for opposition.

What does Governing competency mean?

The extent to which the government is regarded as having been capable and competent.

Give an example of the conservatives utilising valence factors in order to increase their support?

The conservatives took advantage of the “winter of discontent” to prove why they would be more competent in dealing with the situation and economy.

Why did swing voters vote for Thatcher in 1979?

* Inability of James Callaghan to stop the dramatic escalation of strikes during the winter of discontent - undermined public faith in his government “Crisis, what crisis”
* Voted conservative- Thatcher more likely to confront the growing power of trade unionism.

How can strong leadership influence a general election?

* presenting leaders are competent, charismatic and strong will dissuade swing voters from voting for opposition.

How did Tony Blair prove the importance of leadership in 2001?

Blair dominated the political landscape by the charismatic force of his personality and os there was little reason to vote for a weak and divided opposition under William Hague.

How can opposition leaders generate support?

By capturing the mood of the nation.

Examples of opposition leaders gaining support by acknowledging public sentiment

* David Cameron-2010- won election by focusing on increase in national debt- labours weakest point
* Margaret Thatcher- focused on labours government failure to address increase in the power of trade unionism.

What is an example of opposition failing to persuade the pubic of their better suitability for prime minister ?

2005- Ed Miliband0 failed to persuade votes that he had the strength of character to be prime minister.

What does the 2010 general election demonstrate?

* That a strong showing by the leadership of the Liberal Democrat’s can have a significant impact on the result.

What made Nick Clegg the “clear winner” in 2010?

Engaging personality and trustworthiness

Why did UKIP have significant influence in 2015?

* farages focus on immigration made it a pivotal issue for the working class.- took votes away from labour.- helped the conservatives win marginal seats.

How many seats did Labour lose due to the SNP in Scotland?

40 seats lost

Why was Jeremy Corbyns 2017 campaign so successful in comparison to May?

* Optimistic rallies+popular manifesto commitments such as ending tuition fees
* May had an un-inspiring campaign- unpopular “dementia” tax

What percentage of the vote did labour achieve in 2017?

40%

What percentage of the vote did the conservatives achieve in 2017?

42\.4% in 2017.

Why was the 1987 labour manifesto significant?

* didnt commit to the UK’s nuclear deterrent which allowed he conservatives to claim that labour could not be trusted on defence

How did the conservatives exploit Labour not committing to Nuclear deterrent ?

* The campaign poster boldly stated “ LABOURS POLICY ON ARMS”- with a surrendering soldier.

How did the conservatives use Labours 1992 manifesto against them?

* - Labour committed to an increase in public spending
* Conservatives sued this to successfully claim that it would lead to a “tax bombshell”

How did the Conservatives 2017 manifesto advantage labour?

* If elderly people were receiving NHS care at home and had assets of more than £100,000 then the excess would contribute to the cost of their care post-deaths. AIM- Fairer system of care
* Labelled as the “dementia tax” by the press and conservatives had to spend more time defending policy whilst labour had committed to abolishing tuition fees and had a huge increase in support from younger generations.

What do political parties do to ensure manifesto is suited to the issues the public feels most strongly about?

Parties will establish focus groups to investigate issues that the public feels most strongly about and tailor the manifesto to it to take advantage of it.

What was a core “issue” in 2015 that the public felt strongly about?

* Immigration + Brexit
* Led to an increase in support for the conservatives

What does Labour winning the 1997 election with an 11% swing among AB voters despite having policies on “windfall tax” and privatised utilities ?

The perceived incompetence of the government of John Major was the valence issue that mattered more than economic self interest.