Paper 2: changing population

What is rate of natural increase?

What is rate of natural increase?

The difference between birth rates and death rates recorded over a period.

What is population projection?

An estimate of the future population structure of the country including age structure and male/female numbers.

What is fertility rate?

The average number of children that would be born per woman over her lifetime if they were to experience the age-specific fertility rates through their lifetime and they were to live until the end of their reproductive life

What is population momentum?

When fertility rate falls between the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, but due to the country’s age structure (generally having a lot of young people) total population continues to increase.

Define demographic dividend

The growth in an economy as result of change in age structure of a country’s population.

Which geographical factors can influence population distribution?

• Height and relief of the land

• Precipitation (affects agriculture)

• Proximity to rivers/ocean

Which human factors can influence population distribution?

• Government initiatives to relocate people

• Social or economic push factors

• Wars driving forced displacement

What Is dependency ratio?

The number of dependants (persons aged under 15 or over 64) divided by number of working aged people (persons aged between 15 and 64)

What are some causes of differences in birth rates?

• Status of women: if more women work, they are less likely to have children

• Level of education: the longer girls stay in education, the later they will have children and the fewer they will have

• Religion: some religions forbid the use of contraception so birth rate is higher

• Level of wealth: wealthier countries have better access to family planning but also the means to raise more children

What are some causes of differences in death rates?

• Access to good healthcare means people live longer and are more healthy

• Economic prosperity facilitates good nutrition and a healthier lifestyle

• Standard of living

What are Rostow’s stages of economic growth?

• The traditional society (based on subsistence farming)

• Pre-conditions for take-off (Building infrastructure needed for development)

• Take-off (industrial revolution, rapid cultural change)

• Drive to maturity (economic growth spreads)

• High mass consumption (more wealth, consumer culture, trade expands)

Demographic Transition Model

Linking Rostow’s Stages of Development to the Demographic Transition Model

In the traditional society birth and death rates are both high (stage 1 of DTM)

In take-off death rate drops while birth rates remain high (stage 2-3 of DTM)

After drive to maturity birth rates will also drop (stage 4-5 of DTM)

What is the Brandt line?

A line separating the “rich global North“ from the poorer South of less economically-developed countries.

HICs

High income countries (have a GNI per capita of over $13,205 as of 2022)

MICs

Middle income countries (have a GNI per capita of between $1,086 and $13,205 as of 2022)

LICs

Low income countries (have a GNI per capita of less than $1,086 as of 2022)

BRICS

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa: the five leading emerging economies

MINT

Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey: countries with the potential to realise rapid economic growth

What are the trade interactions between the global “core“ and “periphery“?

• The periphery exports low-wage labour and raw materials to the core

• The core returns high-profit value-added goods back to the periphery

Give an example of a core country and a periphery country

Core countries are HICs such as the USA or UK

Periphery countries and LICs such as Malawi

What is a semi-periphery country?

Countries such as those in BRICS and MINT which trade in raw materials and processed goods with HICs and LICs

What is National Population Growth?

Population growth of a country that takes into account birth and death rates but ignores migration

What is a demographic dividend?

The accelerated economic growth that results from decline in a country’s birth and death rate and a subsequent age structure meaning there are more working-age people

When does a demogrpaphic dividend occur?

When the lag time between falling death rates and falling birth rates creates a ‘bulge’ in the population. This increases dependency ratio for a few years but then the ‘bulge‘ moves up the cohort becoming a large workforce.

What are some effects of a demographic dividend?

• Personal savings increase

• More workers including more women are added to the labour force

• Fewer births means more resources can be allocated per child

• GNI per capita increases due to decreased dependency ratio

Why is the demographic dividend difficult to obtain?

• Requires good healthcare and modern family planning methods to obtain

• The workforce must be able to harness and effectively employ its extra workers

What is the case study for a demographic dividend?

South Korea

South Korea demographic dividend case study: background information

• Demographic transition began after the 1950s Korean war

• First national family planning campaign was introduced in 1962

• Min wage workers were employed in creation of infrastructure (economy had formerly been fishing-based)

• Life expectancy increased from 53 to 79 years between 1960 and 2005

• Shift to a ‘production-oriented’ education for knowledge/skills needed for development

South Korea demographic dividend case study: creating a demographic dividend

• Investment in education and reproductive health programmes

• Enforced compulsory education

• Introduced new egalitarian education system: now one of the world’s most educated populations

• Fertility dropped from 6.3 births/woman in 1960 to 1.2 in 2005

South Korea demographic dividend case study: benefits of the demographic dividend

• SK now has one of the fastest-growing global economies with GDP increasing 4% each year

• Rapid economic development due to well-educated and skilled labour force

• More disposable income in households

• National savings rose

• Better family living environments and more resources/child

South Korea demographic dividend case study: challenges of the demographic dividend

• After the DD, the dependency ratio increases again as the ‘bulge‘ generation grows old and retires

• SK is now accepting more immigrants to compensate

What are the case studies for two countries with an uneven population distribution?

China and the USA

Uneven population distribution in China case study: geographical reasons

• Most high-density regions occur around the alluvial plains around which intensive agriculture is centred

• Low population density around the Himalayas as land is less accessible

• Extensive uninhabited regions around the sandy wastes of the central Tarim and mountainous/desert regions (Gobi desert)

• Proximity to coast in the South-East

Uneven population distribution in China case study: human reasons

• In the 1950s the Chinese government initiated a drive for young intellectuals and former military members to settle in the North-Western frontier regions, however the population is still significantly higher in the South-East

Hu Huanyong Line

A diagonal line called the Hu Huanyong line divides China roughly in half, with 94% of the population living on the South East side

Hukou System

A classification system or ‘internal passport’ that keeps record of all Chinese people as either rural or urban citizens. Social benefits are tied to a citizen’s hometown, disadvantaging the rural population whose towns/villages have fewer resources. The system effectively limits rural-urban migration.

When and why was the Hukou system created?

It was created in 1958 under Chairman Mao to address the problem of too many rural workers migrating to cities

How does the Hukou system influence China’s population distribution?

For a while the system successfully limited the number of people migrating to cities

As China gained economic power, the benefits of migrating to cities started to outweigh the costs

Nowadays there are millions of internal rural-urban migrants each year (mostly working-age people)

Reformed Hukou system

Now the “rural“/”urban” classification has been removed from citizens’ passports but this makes little practical difference as benefits are still tied to a person’s hometown.

However there is now a process to transfer residency and it has become easier for rural Chinese citizens to get benefits in different towns or small cities

What is population ‘balance point‘?

The middle point of the country from a population-weighted perspective or the point at which an imaginary, weightless, rigid, and flat surface would balance if each person weighed the same

Uneven population distribution in the USA case study: geographical reasons

• The Rocky Mountains initially represented a barrier to European colonizers moving West

• Proximity to East and West coasts

• States with high desert or mountain coverage are less densely populated in these areas

Uneven population distribution in the USA case study: human reasons

• East coast is very populous because this is where colonizers settled in the c17th

• Asian immigrants tend to settle on the West coast, Europeans on the East

• Most immigrants go to cities

Migration patterns in the USA

• 14% of the population are international immigrants

• Some large cities such as Chicago, NY and LA would be shrinking with people moving into suburbs, except for immigration

• Internal migrants generally stay within their state/county

• People are generally moving from North to South

• Biggest reason for internal migration is to improve housing situation (then family reasons such as divorce/marriage, then for work)

How is the USA’s population expected to change?

• Between 2020 and 2030 it is expected to gain an additional 18.6m people for a total population of almost 350m people

• There will be almost as many over-60s as under-18s (about 74.1m over 60s)

• The white population will shrink by up to 50% by 2045

What are the two case studies for forced movement of people?

Population caps in Shanghai and refugees from Syria

Forced movement from Shanghai example: background information

• In 2017 Shanghai implemented a population cap limiting its population to 25m by 2035

• Increasing concerns about environmental pollution, traffic congestion and shortage of facilities including education and medical care

Forced movement from Shanghai example: environmental consequences

• A means of combating “big city disease”

• Other cities have to deal with the same issues; the problem has just been exported

Forced movement from Shanghai example: social and economic consequences

• Leads to a short supply of workers in some sectors

• Can worsen aging population problem

• Lower-income people are pushed out to make room for the growing middle class and rent becomes more expensive

• Promotes the development of other smaller cities and towns

Forced movement from Syria example: background information/causes

• Between 20006 snd 2011 there was the worst drought ever recorded

• In 2011 there was a violent government crackdown on public demonstrations in support of a grup of teenages who were arrested for spray-painting graffiti. It escalated into an ongoing civil war (different groups fighting for democracy vs current regime)

• Syria went from an upper-MIC to an LIC

Forced movement from Syria example: environmental consequences

• Vegetation degradation and soil erosion in Syria

• Waste and sewage residue from poor sanitary conditions in refugee camps can cause environmental problems for host countries

Forced movement from Syria example: social and economic consequences

• World’s largest refugee crisis

• Over 6.8 Syrians had to flee the country since 2011 and 6.9m are intrnally displaced

• Refugees tend to live in poor, crowded conditions with inadequate sanitation- increased risk of Covid-19 during pandemic

• Poverty and unemployment

• Inability to meet basic needs of refugees

• More than 13.4m people still need humanitarian assistance

What is the case study for a megacity experiencing rapid growth?

Shanghai, China

Megacity growth in Shanghai example: background information

• Port city situated by the Yangtze river and the East China sea: easy access to trade

• During the era of the British empire, it was taken by foreign diplomats (British, American, German and French) and became the wealthiest city in East Asia

• After Mao’s China, money and resources were poured into the city, taxes were reduced and FDI encouraged

• Population is almost 25m (2021)

Opportunities of megacity growth

• Densely populated areas have smaller per capita carbon footprints

• Hub of trade

• Often wealthy cities

• Opportunities for businesses

• Reduced transport costs

• Economic powerhouses

Challenges of megacity growth

• Environmental pollution and urban heat island

• Large energy consumption

• Traffic congestion

• Shortage of services

• Rise of slums

• High concentrations of waste

• Association with huge economic disparities

What is the example of a pro-natalist or anti-natalist policy?

China’s 1979 one-child policy which aided the creation of their demographic dividend

What is the example of a gender equality policy?

Equal pay standard, Iceland

• Every job is analysed for education needed, responsibilities, mental/physical toll

• Two jobs with the same score must have the same salary

• 9/10 people given raises when this law was introduced were women

What is the example of an anti-trafficking group?

San Diego Trafficking Prevention Collective (SDTPC)

• Training of educational staff

• Age-appropriate classroom curriculum

• Lived-experience expert voice