Second Half Lay the Draw (SH LTD) Trade: Grenoble vs Ajaccio

Pre-Match Research:

• Used a Custom Filter with LTA Colours to identify home teams strong in the second half versus weaker away teams.

• Grenoble ranked higher in the home table compared to overall league table.

• Ajaccio ranked lower in the away table than overall standings, indicating weaker away performance.

• Both teams had recently changed Head Coaches, potentially impacting form.

Half-Time Analysis:

• Score at half-time: 1-1.

• Grenoble showed stronger second-half performance in home games.

• Ajaccio had kept games tight away, but recent upturn in form suggested attacking intent.

• Draw priced at 2.4 to lay at half-time—indicative of a low-scoring league.

Live Stats & Entry Point:

• At 65 minutes, Grenoble showed attacking intent (2 shots, 2 corners, 14 Dangerous Attacks).

• Midfield substitution introduced an attacker, increasing chances of a goal.

• Draw price dropped to 1.7, making it an optimal time to enter the trade.

Trade Execution:

• Lay Draw at 1.7 (£20 stake) → Liability £14.00, potential profit £19.60.

• Back Home Win at 3.6 (£11 stake) → Adjusted liability to £25.00, increased profit on home win £47.63.

• Ensured flexibility if Ajaccio scored first, allowing for profit adjustments.

Outcome & Profit Management:

• Grenoble scored a penalty (82'), securing a leading position.

• Backed Draw at 9.2 (£8 stake), locking in profit while mitigating late equalizer risk.

• Final Profit: £39.79 from £25.00 risk (ensuring a safe exit).

Key Takeaways:

• Strong second-half home teams vs weak second-half away teams create profitable SH LTD opportunities.

• Live stats & substitutions confirm ideal entry points.

• Securing profit early can protect against unexpected late goals, as seen with Ajaccio’s 90+6 equalizer.