ADM

Aeronautical Decision-Making (ADM)

Systematic Process (Evaluate Info / Assess Risk / Safest Action)

→ Maintains Safety Margins

→ ~70% Accidents = Human Factor (ICAO 2023 / IATA 2024)

→ Mitigates LOC-I / CFIT (loss of control in flight and controlled flight into terrain)

History and Evolution of ADM

Developed with Crew Resource Management (CRM)

after United Airlines Flight 173→Comm./Decision Failure

Emphasizing Comm., Leadership, Teamwork, Decision-Making,

later shaped by Glass Cockpit / Automation introducing; Automation Risks

• Overreliance

• Mode Confusion

Evolving from Pilot Error → Human Factors Approach, and

advancing to Human–Autonomy Teaming (AI) requiring

• Trust

• Transparency

• Human–Machine Collaboration

Crew Resource Management (CRM)

Optimal use of all available Resources;

• human

• hardware

• informational resources

to enhance; Safety & Operational Effectiveness through;

Non-Technical Skills. Utilizing:

1. Situational Awareness,

2. Workload Management,

3. Communication within an Organizational Framework.

• CRM provides→Framework

• ADM provides→Integration of Cognitive Strategies (for safe decision-making)

Failure Indications: Breakdowns in communication, leadership, and decision-making.

CRM includes the entire crew and organization

Hazardous Attitudes

FAA 5 Attitudes;

1. Anti-Authority→(Ignore SOPs)

2. Impulsivity→(Rush Checklists)

3. Invulnerability→(Underestimate Risks)

4. Macho→(Overconfidence)

5. Resignation→(Giving-Up)

These are Cognitive Biases affecting Decision-Making, leading to Poor Judgment occurring under Stress / Fatigue / Time Pressure,

Mitigated by Antidotes (Corrective Statements), Self-Awareness, and CRM to ensure Safe Flight Operations.

Operational Pitfalls

Common Traps / Unsafe Behaviors in flight caused by Human Factors:

• Judgment Errors,

• Cognitive Biases,

• Overconfidence,

• Fatigue,

• Plan Continuation Pressure

Rather than Technical Skill, leading to Reduced Safety Margins and increased Accident / Incident Risk.

Failure Indications:

• Duck-Under Syndrome (descending below minimums) ‘judgment error’

• Scud Running,

• VFR into IMC

• Neglecting Checklists.

Risk Management (ADM)

Proactive Process to Identify Hazards and Mitigate Risks ensuring

Safe Flight Operations, using 6 Steps: From hazard identification→monitoring

1. Identify Hazards

2. Assess Risks,

3. Analyze Controls,

4. Make Control Decisions,

5. Use Controls,

6. Monitor Results),

⬆️Decision-Making Quality &⬇️Accident / Incident Probability

through

• Knowledge,

• Experience,

• Structured Planning.

Risk Models

Structured Tools for Proactive Risk Management including;

• IMSAFE (Illness, Medication, Stress, Alcohol, Fatigue, Emotion)

• Risk Assessment Matrix (Likelihood × Severity)

• PAVE (Pilot, Aircraft, Environment, External pressures);for System-Wide Assessment,

• 5P (Plan, Plane, Pilot, Passengers, Programming) for Continuous Decision-Making during all Flight Phases. managing avionics/FMS to Prevent Distraction.(reassessment during key flight points).

IMSAFE

• Illness,

• Medication,

• Stress,

• Alcohol→(8-hour and 24-hour alcohol limits)

• Fatigue→(Slows reaction times by up to 30%, equivalent to 0.05% blood alcohol)

• Emotion

for Pilot Readiness

Data-driven risk management

Uses Digital Aviation Data with FOQA (Flight Operational Quality Assurance) from FDR / QAR (Quick Access Recorder) to detect Trends;

• Exceedances,

• Unstable Approaches,

• Automation Mismanagement

+Predictive Analytics / Big Data (Weather, ATC, Maintenance, Biometrics) to

• shift from Reactive→ Predictive / Prescriptive Safety,

⬇Operational Risk Events by ~40%

Threat & Error Management (TEM)

Safety Framework to Identify, Manage, Mitigate Threats (External Conditions) and Errors (Pilot Deviations),

recognizing they are Normal in Operations, and preventing Accidents by

Identifying Threats,

Avoiding/Mitigating Errors (CRM, Procedures),

Managing Undesired A/CStates (UAS); such as an unstable approach.

Decision Making Process (DECIDE & FORDEC)

Structured cognitive models (DECIDE and FORDEC) used to manage abnormal situations

Accedents Contributing Factors & Percentage:

13%→Inadequate SMS

22%→ Weather/Malfunctions.

35%→Non-Compliance with SOP ;

37%→Crew Response and Situational Awareness

39%→Manual Handling and Flight Control Errors

.– 6-Step Decision-Making Framework: (DECIDE)

1. Detect→(Problem)

2. Estimate →(Need to React)

3. Choose →(Objective)

4. Identify →(Solutions)

5. Do→(Action)

6. Evaluate→(Result)

used in Flight Training / CRM for Structured, Safe Decision-Making.

FORDEC:

1. Facts,

2. Options,

3. Risks/Benefits,

4. Decision,

5. Execution,

6. Check

Safety Management Systems (SMS)

Organization-Wide Safety Approach integrating Hazard Identification, Risk Assesm., Mitigation into operations, built on 4 Safety Components:

1. Policy & Objectives,

2. Risk Management (SRM),

3. Assurance (Monitoring, Audits, Improvement),

4. Promotion (Training, Communication, Safety Culture).

Resilience Engineering

Modern Safety Philosophy complementing Traditional Reactive Models,

focusing on System Ability to Adapt, Absorb, Recover

in Complex Environments, with 4 Capabilities:

1. Anticipate,

2. Monitor,

3. Respond,

4. Learn

to ensure Safe Operations despite Unexpected Disruptions.

Stress

– Acute & Chronic Stress affects Cognitive Readiness, Situational Awareness, Decision-Making,

caused by Stressors (Environmental, Physiological, Psychological) especially under High Workload, and peer support programs.

managed through:

CRM, Data-Driven Scheduling, Resilience Training, Peer Support, Positive Safety Culture.

Fatigue

Physiological State from Sleep Loss, Circadian Misalignment, Long Duty Hours reducing Performance→

Slows reaction times by up to 30%; equivalent to 0.05% blood alcohol

managed through FRMS (Fatigue Risk Management System) using Data-Driven, Scientific (Sleep / Circadian) Approach with

Monitoring, Reporting, Training, Roster Optimization to ensure Safety & Pilot Well-Being.
Fatigue cannot be overcome by willpower.
FRMS (Fatigue Risk Management Systems),

• biomathematical modeling

• fatigue reporting.

Mental Health and Resilience post-COVID

Physiological State (Sleep Loss / Circadian Misalignment / Long Duty Hours) Performance ↓ (Reaction Time ↓ up to 30%) → Not Overcome by Willpower.

Managed by FRMS(Fatigue Risk Management System) using:

• Data-Driven, Scientific Sleep

• Monitoring / Reporting / Training / Roster Optimization

To ensure Safety & Pilot Well-Being

Post-COVID Mental Health: Isolation / Anxiety / Return-to-Flight Stress

Organizational support

• Peer programs

• Structured procedural manuals.
  

Learning times ↓ by 65% and retention ↑ by 400% using VR training.

Grounding leads to:

• loss of professional identity

• reduced confidence.

Automation and Human-Autonomy Teaming

Analog / EFIS (1980s) → Glass Cockpit → AI-Enabled Teaming (2025)

• Support Decision-Making

• Reduce Errors during High Workload

Human = Final Decision-Maker → Machine = Team Member / Support

Automation Complacency + Over-Reliance = Main Risks

Manual Flying Practice (FAA AC 120-123) +

Human “On the Loop” (Active Monitoring & Override) + Mode Awareness Training

Air France 447 / Asiana 214 incedents→Mode Confusion / Skill Degradation

AI Assists in Taxi / Takeoff / Landing / Emergency Diversion Planning

“Human on the Loop” = Active Supervision (NOT Passive Monitoring)

Situational Awareness (SA)

3 Levels:

1. Perception of Environment +

2. Comprehension of Meaning +

3. Projection of Future Status

Maintain “Big Picture” → Prevent Tunnel Vision + Errors

Degraded by: Distraction / Fixation / Fatigue / Information Overload

Protections: Continuous Monitoring + Cross-Checking + Follow SOPs

Failure: Not Recognizing Worsening Conditions or Excessive Descent Rate

Over-Reliance on Automation → SA Degradation

Workload Management (WM)

Organization & Prioritization of Tasks based on Limited Human Capacity

Optimal Workload Balance → Maintain Performance + Decision-Making

Aviate → Navigate → Communicate + Task Delegation (CRM)

Underload (Cruise) → Complacency / High Workload → Cognitive Overload

Task Prioritization + Delegation + Time Management = Main Protections

Uneven Workload → Errors / Fatigue / Reduced Situational Awareness (SA)

Automation Reduces Workload but Must Maintain Engagement

Underload = Safety Risk (Reduced Vigilance)

External Pressures and Case Studies

Commercial / Environmental / Geopolitical Pressures influence Pilot Judgment

Balance: On-Time Performance + Fuel Efficiency with Safe Operations

• 157 Fatalities (Ethiopian 302)

• 38 Fatalities (Azerbaijan 8243)

• 100+ Flight Cancellations (Aeroflot Cyberattack)

Limitations: Conflict Zones / Geopolitical Tensions → Delays & Diversions

Protections: AI Flight Planning + Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Failure Examples: Certification Pressure (B737 MAX) + Communication Failure (JAL 516) + Fuel Stretching

Automation Pressure Example: MCAS (B737 MAX)

17.10 Emerging Frontiers (VR/AR)

AI / VR / AR Technologies transforming ADM & Flight Training

Accelerated Training + Improved Retention of Complex Procedures

Immersive / Risk-Free Scenario-Based Learning + Virtual Inspections

Learning Time ↓ 65% / Knowledge Retention ↑ 400% (VR)

• Requires Regulatory Integration (e.g., A320 Type Rating Programs)

• Real-Time AI Feedback + Personalized Adaptive Learning

Traditional Training Less Effective for High-Stress Scenarios

AI Simulators Adjust Scenarios in Real-Time to Pilot Performance