"The outcomes of general elections are mostly decided by election campaigns and manifestos."

3 points

1. campaign strategies

2. manifestos

3. long-term factors

campaign strategies

• Weaker: Campaigns don’t override gov’t record – 2024 Tories had better-funded campaign, still lost big.

• Stronger: Targeted campaigning can help – Labour focused resources on marginals like Bury North in 2024.

manifestos

• Weaker: Voters rarely read manifestos – most base vote on party leader/image.

• Stronger: Clear promises can sway voters – 2017: Corbyn’s tuition fee pledge attracted youth vote.

long-term factors

• Weaker: Floating voters still exist – 2024 had many swing voters in red wall/blue wall seats.

• Stronger: Party image and gov’t competence matter more – 2024 Tories punished for Truss mini-budget, Partygate.

conclusion

Disagree – campaigns/manifestos play a role, but government performance and party image matter more.