Foreign Policy

freaking lock in

Foreign Policy 

determines how and when specific outcomes will take place  guided by theoretical ideas about realism, liberalism, constructivism → DECISION MAKING IS SO IMPORTANT 

Rationality

states making logical, calculated decisions to achieve their goals by using credible theories, evidence, and deliberative processes to maximize their perceived benefits and interests

Difference between IR and FP

Role of individual matters: IR wants to predict general outcomes, FP regulates when it takes place

3 Primary variables

1) Individuals making the process

2) Type of state and society that they function in (size, wealth, political culture)

3) International context within which they operate

biggest problem with FP

Rationality → individuals are supposed to be rational, but they are subjected to unique values and personalities and experiences

Risk Aversion 

Human tendency to avoid certain outcomes (they do not want to touch the dog bc of xyz)  

Risk Acceptance

Person acknowledges the risks, but allows it to continue (still petting the dog)

Perception, misperception, rational - way decisions makers diverge from rationality

How you see, is how decisions are made → perceptions & misperceptions are rational, but it depends on the individual → our own ideas of how everything is seen

Affect or Affective Bias - way decisions makers diverge from rationality

How people feel, or how they like or dislike something based on what they experienced 

Cognitive Bias - way decisions makers diverge from rationality

How do you think, stemming from ideas from our brains, different images (enemy image and mirror image) or wishful thinking or justification of effort → it can also be learned from what others have told us

Allisons 3 models of decisons making

1) Rational Model or Rational Actor

2) Assumes the process is rational & predictable (clarify & prioritize goals, list alternative policies, investigate consequences, & select the best ,most rational policy)

3) Risk is still a factor, bias is still a factor

Munich analogy

An idea that a stronger/aggressive power will only encourage and will lead to a larger conflict later. Munich cannot happen again and uses how the Brits and French allowed for Germany to take over Czech without representation and Germany later took it over and moved into Poland. It warns that giving in to the demands of a dictator will only embolden them, ultimately leading to greater conflict. 

Bureaucratic Politics OR Government Bargaining Model

Diff agencies with/ competing interests are involved in the decision-making, and they have to bargain for outcomes; they’re looking for the national interest in their own POV. Interest & bargaining are key.

Organizational Process Model

This model suggests that foreign policy decisions often result from established practices rather than individual choices, leading to outcomes shaped by bureaucratic behavior and institutional norms. Makes decisions based on standard operating procedures (SOPs) that already exist.

Competing SOPs can result in either a compromise between the parties or one dominate SOP

Competing Interests

Conflicts between objectives, interests in domestic or international goals, require policymakers to make trade-offs and strategic choices 

Presidential Management Model

A type of model that Presidents use that assumes a management system

1) Debate and get all ideas from ALL positions

2) Start o deduce to set of choices

3) Reduce group of decision makers - MOST TRUSTED PEOPLE

Nixon-Kissinger Model

it was a strategy for the United States to manage the decline of its power relative to other countries during the Cold War by playing rival powers against each other.