International Security Final Exam

What does Morgenthau (classical realist) say about the national interest?

• Definition: A state’s physical, political and cultural identity

• Most important: sovereignty

• How to defend national interest: power preservation & accumulation of power - other goals are a waste of power

What does Wolfers say about the national interest?

• Definition: preservation of territorial integrity, political, cultural identity - based on domestic + foreign policy ideology

• How to defend: cost benefit calculus + using resources efficiently

• Agrees w/ Morgenthau w/ definition & how to defend the national interest, but expands how what the national interest is

*What does Brodie say about the national interest?

Determine national interest on: state power, history of state/leader’s experience, foreign policy ideology

*More likely to enact policy for national interest if:

• Direct threat? Yes

• Cost of not acting? High

• Relative cost of acting? Low

What is power?

• Def: The ability in a social relationship to carry out your will and achieve preferred outcome

• Inherently relational

• Scope: WHO is involved in the relationship (ex: student & professor)

• Domain: SOCIAL ARENA (ex: classroom)

How do you measure power?

• Resources (material) - military, supporters, economy/wealth, tech, capacity, natural resources, etc.

• Outcomes (relational)

Type of resources, willingness to use resources and smart power all matter in getting the preferred outcome.

What is the Power diagram?

Resoures → Power Conversion (Smart Power (ability to form good strategies), calculation of the national interest) → (3 Faces of Power) → Preferred Outcome

What are the 3 Faces of Power?

Having sufficient resources to…

1. Commanding Change: punish/reward behavior

2. Controlling agendas: punish/reward through institutions and laws

3. Establishing preferences: shape beliefs, perceptions and preferences

What is soft power?

Rooted in the attractiveness of your institution, ideas, values and culture

Ex: Kpop, the Beatles

*Not the same as 3rd face of power, no intentional manipulation

What is coercion, and what types are there?

Must have:

• A DEMAND

• A THREAT

Types:

• Compellence

• Deterrence

What is compellence?

• DEMAND + THREAT

• CHANGE status quo

What is deterrence?

• DEMAND + THREAT

• KEEP/PRESERVE status quo

*Schelling - what determines the success of coercion?

1. Military capability (CAN they carry out the threat?)

2. Credibility of threat (WILL they carry out the threat?)

3. Existence of compatible preference structures (“An actor is willing to give me what I want at a cost that is acceptable to me.”)

*Schelling - strategies for increasing credibility of threat

• Commit political prestige (put reputation on the line)

• Perceive irrationality (Kim Jong Un)

• Burning bridges (can’t back out now)

• Linkage (linking yourself to a state)

*Pape - What is punishment strategy?

Coercive strategy that threatens current and future pain

• Punishment strategy: raises the cost of continued resistance

• Risk strategy: raises the probability of costs from resistance (diluted form of punishment strategy)

Rarely succeeds if the threat targets core state values, heavy additional punishment will not be accepted, delayed until truly hopeless (incompatible pref. structures)

*Pape - What is denial strategy?

Coercive strategy that reduces probability that resistance will produce benefits (“resistance is futile”)

Work best (compared to punishment)

Freedman - What is narrow & broad deterrence?

• Narrow: involves deterring a particular type of military tool (e.g., use of chemical weapons)

• Broad: involves deterring war

Freedman - What is extended & central deterrence?

• Extended: issuing a deterrent threat to prevent a possible aggressor from attacking an ally

• Central: issuing a deterrent threat to prevent a possible aggressor from attack your territory

Freedman - What is immediate & general deterrence?

• Immediate: involves an immediate deterrent threat b/w opponents b/c conflict appears imminent

• General: involves a general threat b/w opponents (conflict is not imminent)

*Waltz - what do nuclear weapons do?

NUCLEAR WEAPONS PURIFY DETERRENT STRATEGIES AND MAKE STATES EXTREMELY RISK AVERSE!

Coercion depends on (nuke version):

1. Military capability (unquestioned!)

2. Credibility of threat (ELIMINATED - unquestioned!)

3. Preference structures (Aligned - nobody wants nuclear exchange)

*Walt - what is the balance of threat theory?

The balance of threat theory determines whether a state will balance of bandwagon based on perceived threat:

1. Aggregate power (high) - balance

2. Proximity (close) - balance

3. Offensive capability (high) - balance

4. Aggressive intentions (high) - balance

Summary: State A balances against State B when B is powerful, near, has significant offensive capability and is perceived as aggressive.

• Calculation of the national interest & balance of threat theory basically same

*Walt - when do states bandwagon?

1. State A is very weak compared to B

2. State A has no available allies bc of geography or credible commitment from powerful states

3. More probably if A is ideologically similar to B

Waltz - 2 main facts about nuclear weapons and its effects

1. Extreme destructive power

2. Ease of delivery

Levy & Thompson - balancing for land powers / maritime powers?

• Land powers:

  • Balance against other land powers

  • Less incentive to balance against maritime powers

• Maritime powers:

  • Balance against other maritime powers

  • Balance against land powers ONLY if those powers threaten maritime dominance/access to markets

Haas - what is the effect of ideology on threat perceptions?

Great ideological differences between state leaders lead to:

• Greater fear of subversion

• Greater belief in the inevitability of conflict

• Greater probability of conflict bc of misperception

→ greater concern for relative power, greater desire for a state to convert its ideological rival

*What is internal balancing?

State building up its own economic and military power to counter a potential threat

*STATES PREFER INTERNAL BALANCING OVER EXTERNAL

What is external balancing?

State seeks allies to counter a potential threat

Pape - what is soft balancing?

IDK/NOT REAL

*What is so special about the Napoleonic era?

• Rise of nationalism (fighting for one’s country) - a third face of power

• Led to HUGE armies based on one’s pride for their state

*What is so special about the land warfare era?

• WWI:

• Railroads → transport supplies

• Telegram → increase coordination/communication

• Machine guns → no more line tactics, but TRENCH WARFARE

*What’s so special about the interwar era?

• WWII

• Technology like: internal combustion engine, aviation, wireless communication

*What’s so special about the computer/information era? (AKA RIGHT NOW)

• *Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)

• US is very strong bc of RMA tech → asymmetric strategies from adversaries to increase US’ cost (punishment based coercion)

  • ballistic missiles, WMD, terrorism, cyberwarfare

• *RMA → improved military’s SPEED, DISTANCE & PRECISION

  • *Precisely target & shape enemy decisions at greater distances

*RMA important facts

• Improved military’s:

  • speed

  • distance

  • precision

• Precisely target and shapes enemy decisions at greater distances

• Quality>Quantity

• Just having RMA weapons is not enough

  • Bottom up decision making → more efficient

  • React quickly, learn from mistakes

  • States must have popular legitimacy (more common w/ democracies)

What is the connection between/w military affairs/revolutions and states?

Military revolutions are intrinsically connected w/ state building because states must adapt to survive i.e., tax

Change state system to keep up with current warfare trends in order to survive - a more complex military requires a more complex:

• State, economy, military, national identity, society, technology

*Waltz - how does polarity affect balancing when power is constant?

• Bipolarity (2 major powers) → easier balancing → higher probability of peace

  • Why? Mechanics of balancing are easier

• Multipolarity (more than 2 major powers) → more difficult balancing → higher probability of war

*Copeland - what is the Power Transition Theory?

• Bipolarity: power transition (A increases in power, B decreases) → higher probability of war

  • Why? Declining power (B) has more motive to attack b/c no one can help it balance against the rising power (A)

• Multipolarity: power transition (A increases in power, B decreases) → lower probability of war

  • Why? Declining power has others to help balance against rising state

• Time is a variable

Beckley - What is a peaking power?

Peaking power: rising states that face the prospect of economic decline/stagnation

• Authoritarian states: more likely to adopt aggressive foreign policies bc they are less likely to tackle internal, structural issues/domestic reforms

• Democratic state: rely on domestic reforms, not aggressive foreign policy

*Jervis - what is the security dilemma?

When one security seeking state’s actions to defend itself decreases the security of another state

*Jervis - how can the security dilemma lead to war?

1. Deterrence model (balancing → easier opportunities for aggression→ increased prob. of war)

2. Spiral model (balancing→ generates mutual fear/suspicion → inc. prob. of war)

Deterrence model and spiral model both fuel each other in a cycle and that is called…

CONFLICT SPIRAL: the security dilemma fuels spirals of mutual suspicion → fuels misperception of other’s actions and intention → creates fear-driven motive for territorial expansion, aggressiveness, arms racing and potential imbalances of power

→ pressure cooker → BOOM WAR

*Jervis - Psychological dynamics that drive conflict spiral

• Fundamental attribution theory: underestimate the perceived hostility of one’s actions, while viewing others potentially hostile actions as innate aggressiveness

• Judging off of first impressions + confirmation bias: after one action is perceived as hostile, interprets all new info thru that lens, emphasizing actions that reinforce that belief

*Glaser - how does security dilemma produce a higher prob. of war?

1. Changes ease of aggression (O/D balance goes here)

• Arms racing → new tech → changes ease of aggression → offense dominance

2. Creates a motive to act aggressively

• Greater motive to territorially expand in order to improve defense (ex: need for buffer zones)

3. Damages a state’s economic power

• Arms racing/balancing → adversary does the same, keeping you equally balanced or less → keep arms racing → weaker economy → harder to balance in the future

*Jervis - What is the Offense-Defense Balance?

The amount of military resources a state must commit to offense to overcome an opponent w/ the ratio favoring either offense or defense which consists of:

• GEOGRAPHY that favors/hinders O/D

• TECHNOLOGY that favors/hinders O/D

*Jervis - What are the consequences of distinguishing offense dominance?

SECURITY DILEMMA IS MORE INTENSE:

• Aggression is easy and cheap → Aggressors are hard to identify bc everyone adopts offensive weapons and strategies

*Jervis - What are the consequences of distinguishing defense dominance?

SECURITY DILEMMA IS LESS INTENSE:

• Defense is easy and cheap → aggressors are easier to identity bc only aggressors adopt offensive weapons and strategies

• Identify each other as defense dominant thru weapons and strategy and easily identify who is offensive

• Stability can be achieved by banning “aggressive” weapons

*Jervis - consequence of defense or offensive advantage?

• Defense: Mitigates arms racing bc it is easier to defend oneself from an attack

• Offense: increases incentive to attack and launch preemptive strike

Levy/Lieber - critique of offense/defense balancing

Weapons do not inherently favor offense or defense. They can be used for either situation

Christensen & Snyder - what is chain ganging and when does it happen?

IN MULTIPOLARITY:

Chain ganging: when a major power unconditionally ties itself to a reckless ally whose survival is seen as indispensable to the maintenance of the balance of power

• “over balancing”

• PERCEIVED OFFENSE BALANCE → CHAIN GANGING

• Example: China continues to increase their artillery. The US perceives this as China being increasingly aggressive and goes to war against China for Taiwan.

Christensen & Snyder - what is buck passing and when does it happen?

IN MULTIPOLARITY:

Buck passing: When a major power counts on third parties to bear the costs of stopping a rising/threatening state and fails to balance effectively

• “under balancing”

• PERCEIVED DEFENSE BALANCE → BUCK PASSING

• Example: The US believes that Taiwan will be able to defend against China, so the US decides to do nothing

Snyder - What is the “Cult of the Offensive?”

All militaries favor offensive strategies or believe that offense is dominant bc

1. Victory = conquest, offensive operations → maintain control of the situation

2. Increases institution’s prestige, autonomy, size, budget

Snyder - what are the consequences of the cult of the offensive and how do you prevent it?

Increases probability of war bc of:

• Conflict spiral

• increased arms race

• Incentive to preemptively attack

• Shortens period for negotiations

This can be prevented by:

• close civilian monitoring

• supervision of military

• not allowing diplomacy become hostage to the military

Legro - What does legro say about military culture?

Military culture depends on:

1. whether they advocate for offensive or defensive strategies

2. whether they view certain capabilities necessary or not

What does Adamsky say about military culture?

(Develops Legro’s argument)

Military culture shapes:

• what strategies and tools are deemed appropriate for a situation

• understanding of strategic concepts

Example: Russia & coercion/deterrence is diff. from the west - they understand it as shaping perceptions

Levy - What are Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)? How do they contribute to war?

Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs): formulaic solutions that reduce the problems to manageable terms, clarify responsibilities and calculations and maximize certainty/efficiency

SOPs contribute to war by:

1. Mobilization → war (once initiated, it is hard to reverse)

2. Timing of mobilization SOPs → less time for diplomacy

3. Military needs over diplomatic needs (SOP vs diplomacy)

Levy - Why are SOPs so rigid?

1. Vested interests to preserve SOP

2. SOP difficult to change bc unaware (segmented authority) or lack of authority

3. Psychological reasons (admitting they were wrong, prefer certainty of SOP)

Mansfield & Snyder - what are immature democracies/mixed regimes more prone to being?

Immature democracies are prone to being more aggressive and warlike because:

• weak/nonexistent democratic institutions (courts, free press, strong political parties)

• Lack of peaceful conflict and tolerance

• Lack of constraining institutions

• Elites use nationalism-based fear mongering + fake news to win

• Once elected, politicians must act on their rhetoric

Ex: Candidate wants to win → fear mongers electorate (hyper nationalism and xenophobia) → call BS → weak free press + call them a traitor

OR Candidate uses illegal activities to win → weak courts/opposition party → no one to stop

→ candidate win → no real threat but everyone believes there is → candidate must carry out their rhetoric to keep popularity → higher prob. of aggressive foreign policy

Snyder - What are the myths of empire?

• Domino theory: one loss will lead to a cascade of losses

• Offense has the advantage: offense/brute force/surprise attacks are better because the loss will be monumental

• Paper Tiger & Bandwagons: State A is an immense threat that others will bandwagon with, but if you push back on State A, it will quickly back down

Snyder - why do expansionists capture domestic politics?

They have political advantages like:

• Few domestic groups → easy to coordinate

• Are information monopolies (unique knowledge eg military)

• Are rich → can spread propaganda

• Tied to the state → able to shape policy

Snyder - Why do expansionist groups pursue self defeating policies that lead to overexpansion, and which regime type is most susceptible to this?

1. Believing self-serving aggressive/expansionist rhetoric OR convincing population and having to go along with it

2. Focused on short term political/economic gains

3. Reverse previous loss → increase of taking risks

• How do these advantages and calculations get converted into state policies?

  • Depends on the regime type: CARTELIZED AUTHORITARIAN SYSTEMS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE

    • Several large interest groups dominate politics

    • Logrolling

Van Evera - What are some domestic causes of war?

1. Militarianism (myths of empire, exaggerate hostility, etc.)

2. Hypernationalism

3. Social stratification (need more distractions such as xenophobia)

4. Revolutionary states

• Fear counter revolutions →defensive wars to remove threatening counter revolutionary states

• Leaders rely on self glorifying myths → hyper nationalism + suppression of speech

• Neighboring states worry about revolutionary states → hostility

Owen - What is the ecology of nations?

States/great powers seek to create environments that are beneficial to their political and economic systems.

Democratic states advocate for democracy & free market to create a favorable environment for them. Authoritarian states advocate for policies that favor their econ/political systems.

They view each other as threatening to their way of life

Hal Brands - What is ideology to states?

Ideology is a distinct way of looking at the world, not just systems.

Example: Russia promotes traditional values (trad wife, no women’s rights)

Mercer - How does racism affect perception of state’s intentions and military power?

Racism can make a leader:

• Perceive opposition is offense dominant

• Increase security dilemma threat perception

• Affect balance of power perception

• Honestly just make them have assumptions based on their race instead of actual place of power

What makes Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) maintain a stable strategic relationships?

1. Assured annihilation (rooted in the nature of nukes)

2. Secure second strike (something you develop): both sides can absorb devastating first attack and retaliate

Lieber and Press - What can destabilize a MAD relationship?

First strike capability (one side can land a devastating attack so there can be no retaliation) → Both states have incentive to attack first:

Nuclear arms racing from fear of first strike potential

Critique of first strike advantage and arguments against it

• Critique: logic of MAD means first-strike fears are not politically realistic → no need to arms race

• Argument: extremely averse to nuclear war → cost of being wrong is too high → must arms race to secure second strike capabilities

Lieber and Press - what are the implications for the future based on the current nuclear arms race?

AI and new sensor tech will make it very easy to target an enemy’s strategic nuclear forces deep in their country:

• Rich states can respond by investing this tech → MAD will remain stable among rich nuclear powers

• Poor states cannot develop this tech → MAD will become destabilized and rich states will have first-strike capability against poorer nuclear states

Gavin - What is the US Grand Strategy?

A purposeful and coherent set of ideas about what nations seek to accomplish and how it should go about it

EX) US Grand Strategy during the Cold War

1. Containment of USSR and communism

2. Open the international economy to capitalism and promote democracy

3. Prevent the spread of nuclear weapons

What were the US’ grand strategic goals during the Cold War?

1. Prevent the deliberate or accidental use of nuclear weapons against the US

2. Prevent third parties from drawing the US into a war thru the use of a nuclear weapon

3. Prevent nuclear proliferation tipping points

4. Prevent states from using nuclear weapons to deter the US

5. Prevent allies from using nuclear weapons to gain greater independence from the US

6. Prevent revisionist states from using nuclear weapons as a shield

7. Keep nuclear weapons in the hands of the great powers to ensure stable MAD

What were the US’ means to achieve their grand strategy goals during the Cold War?

1. Non-proliferation and arms control treaties

2. Norms of non-proliferation and non-first use

3. Coercive sanctions

4. Sabotage

5. Threats of abandoning allies

6. Preventive military strikes

7. Extending the US security umbrella (conventional & nuclear) thru allies

8. Emphasizing a robust US nuclear deterrent capability (inc. damage limitation)

9. Arms sales to allies

Krepon - Should we ban the bomb?

Yes!

Proliferation feeds proliferation - it is in our best interest

Joffe and Davis - what does nuclear proliferation do?

• Off set adversaries’ conventional capabilities

• Ensure absolute security from invasion or massive attacks

• Extract concession from rivals

• Intimidate neighbors and achieve regional hegemony

Joffe and Davis - what would banning the bomb do?

Make the world more dangerous bc:

1. great power war would be less dangerous → more probable

2. states w/ significant conventional power may take advantage of smaller states → latent power becomes more important → conquest would be seen as necessary

3. states would worry about secret nuclear programs → abolition would be short lived

What are ballistic missiles?

• A missile that is guided during powered flight and unguided during free flight - it is effected by gravity and atmospheric drag

• Like a football

• Can reach hypersonic speeds

• Are extremely difficult and costly to intercept

• Growing cheaper to produce

What are cruise missile?

• Long range, low-flying guided missile

• Flies veryyy low to the ground (curvature of the earth)

• Avoids radar detection thru radar shadows casted by terrain, etc. → hard to intercept bc they are hard to detect

What are attack drones? What are kamikaze drones/loitering munitions?

attack drone: unmanned aircraft that fire munitions, which can include unmanned aerial vehicles

Kamikaze drone: uavs carrying explosives that destroy themselves when attacking a target

DoD Group III obscures line b/w loitering munitions and cruise missiles

Conventional cruise missile vs medium sized attack drone?

medium sized attack drones are:

• relatively small and fly low (but not as low as a cruise missile)\

• can attack at significant distances

• have small warheads

• rather cheap and easy to produce → rapidly produce and launch in large numbers and at large distances

• cheaper alternative to cruise missiles

• the cheapness and preciseness of these drones will lead to them dominating future battlefields

What are the 2 types of hypersonic missiles?

1. Hypersonic cruise missile

2. Hypersonic glide vehicle

What is a hypersonic missile?

• Travels at multiple speeds of sound

• Maneuver thru the UPPER ATMOSPHERE (skipping off the atmosphere or using an advanced engine) to follow a non-predictable path

• Gives states the ability to attack targets at extreme speeds and distances

• → limited time to react

• → very difficult to intercept

• Cutting edge tech and very expensive (Russia, China, US)

Wilkening - what are the political implications of hypersonic missiles?

• fears of first strike advantage → destabilize MAD and reignite great power nuclear and missile arms race

• limited time to react → default tendency to escalate

• harder to distinguish nuclear vs hypersonic

• harder to distinguish what is being targeted

Metrick - what can missile proliferation cause and how do we combat it?

• Missile proliferation can cause punishment based coercion (impost costs over time to disrupt target state’s routing)

  • Ex: Houthis and red sea

• We need better air defense systems + international cooperation on air defense, share resources, sensor info and intelligence to fight this

Examples of missile defense technology?

• Boost Phase Interceptors (BPI)

  • Airborne lasers

  • Ground-based missiles

• Mid course interceptors

Glaser and Fetter - What are the disadvantages of missile defense?

• Mid course hit to kill interception is unlikely to be sufficiently effective bc of countermeasures

  • more effective against conventionally armed ballistic missiles but is very expensive

• Boost phase interception has better chance of success but is limited by having to be near launch site

• Adversaries will just make new ways of delivering nuclear war heads and avoid missile defense

Waltz - what is the problem w/ missile defense?

• Missile defense is unlikely to work (no 100% certainty of decoys vs real warheads → continue to fear nuclear escalation)

• Missile defense interferes with the logic of nuclear deterrence

  • States may believe that they can commit aggression w/o fearing nuclear retaliation

  • Potentially lessen the fears of escalation → increase the probability of nuclear war

• Nuclear arms race to circumvent missile defense

• Missile defense does not reduce the US’ vulnerability to nuclear weapons (diff. methods can be used)

• Example: Gold dome

Lowther and McGiffin - Why should we use AI for missile defense?

• NC3 system will be too slow to process information from technology that leave little reaction time → must use AI NC3

• AI algorithm will rapidly assess warning attacks, determine appropriate response and direct military response with permission

Fitzpatrick - why should we not use AI for missile defense?

• AI can be fooled using fake vids, images, stories

• AI can be poorly trained

• AI lacks context and nuance

• AI should not be trusted to provide accurate data and command US nuclear forces

What is terrorism?

• Non state actor

• Uses or threatens to use violence against citizens

• Goal is political change

• Punishment-based coercive strategy (generates costs/fear of future costs)

Hoffman and Ware - what are some components of white supremacy in the US?

• Great replacement theory: immigrants and ‘radical left groups’ are trying to replace ‘traditional’ society

• Accelerationism: accelerating the collapse of society so they can rebuild it in their own image (political violence)

• Russia and Iran use bots to spread this rhetoric to break down democracy

• REMVE: Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism

  • This has spread from the US to other countries via the internet

Hal Brands and O’Hanlon - What are the 6 Criteria to assess the success or failure of US global war on terrorism?

1. Protecting US homeland from another attack (pass)

2. Denying/destroying global terrorist safe havens (pass)

3. Decapitating and dismantling terrorist organizations (pass)

4. Promoting political reform and stability in the greater Middle East (fail)

5. Decreasing overall levels of terrrorism worldwide (fail)

Byman - What is the Good Enough Doctrine?

Keep terrorist groups weak while working with locals to improve conditions

Cronin - How have terrorists group historically ended?

1. Terrorist victory (rare)

2. Transformation into a criminal network or insurgency (narcos)

3. Successful military repression by a state (rarely works, difficult for democracies to do)

4. Arrest or killing of terrorist group leader (cult leader, no successor)

5. Negotations w/ state to end terrorism (difficult but viable)

6. Collapse in on themselves or loss of popular support (fractures within, government reform, miscalculations, targeting errors → loss of popular support)

Chambers - What is the Gray Zone?

1. Ambiguous

2. Exploits adversary’s weakness thru DIME (Diplomatic, information, military, economic)

3. Attacks in five domains (land, air, sea, space and cyber)

4. Uses laws and cultural norms as a weapons system

Paul and Matthews - What is the Russian Propaganda model?

Two distinct features:

1. High # of channels and messages

2. A shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions (regardless of side)

Giles - What are the Russian’s objective w/ info warfare?

• Control information in whatever form it takes

  • Extract, manipulate, exfiltrate, distort, insert info

  • Isolate a target from sources of info

• Undermine the notion of objective truth and reporting being possible

• Undermines the very fundamentals of information and credibility

• Example: NRA example

  • The target never knows

  • Spread govt. corruption to destabilize democracy

Scharre -what are the implications of AI enabled drones?

• AI enabled drones - wmds

• Machine speed

• AI weapons are the future of warfare

Garett - what Is ai enabled surveillance?

Digital authoritarianism/neocolonialism: the use of digital into tech by authoritarian regimes to surveil, repress and manipulate domestic/foreign populations

• China: 21st century surveillance state

• Israel too

• Political repression

• Surveillance in Africa to control and monitor citizens

*Allen and Chan - How does AI affect national security?

• AI will be useful for bolstering cyber offense/defense

• Military: AI centric

  • lethal autonomous weapons, robotic assassination will become common and difficult to attribute, low cost capabilities to terrorists, military power is not dependent on economic strength/population size, forced to use ai or be outcompeted by ‘machine speed’

• Intelligence: computer assisted intelligence

• Propaganda, media, government stability: erode social trust, threatens stability of economies and governments

  • False news, cyberattacks and social media bot networks

• Economics: accelerate innovation and productivity at the price of threatening jobs

  • Permanent worker displacement → technologically advanced countries may face “resource curse” - owners of productive capital are highly concentrated, economics/politics becomes unstable

What makes “no-go” zones in megacities so dangerous?

• Base for transnational crime

• Breeding ground for new violent radical ideologies (isms)

• Safe havens where terrorists can recruit, train and attack

• Lack of public sanitation and pollution make it an ideal environment for disease mutation

• High likelihood of violence and conflict

• Very difficult for militaries to enter and resource intensive

  • Urban warfare is very dangerous

Posen - What did Posen mean by the War in Gaza was inevitable?

Wars in urban spaces are the future.

Historical precedent has been set:

• Battle of Mosul (Iraqi army and US AirPower vs ISIS)

  • Held entire city hostage

  • Used civilians as human shields

  • Considered largest urban battle since WWII until Gaza

Kilcullen - what is the co design approach to urban instability?

• A grassroots approach where locals define the problem and create the answer, while outsiders help with that process

• Create security sphere to create security, safety and predictability (even for gang members) in order to create trust and community to rebuild

• COIN is not the way

• Resilience > stability

Walter - How are civil wars started?

• Anocracy (b/w democracy and authoritarianism - weak institutions)

• Elites increase factionalism/cleavages through prejudice and xenophobia for political/economic gain

• A group perceives loss of social/economic status

• Loss of faith in peaceful political processes

• MAIN POINT: it is driven by elites to gain power

Byman - what can we learn from US reconstruction?

• Losing parties to a civil war will not voluntarily submit to a new political/economic order

  • May use violence to suppress elections in democracies

  • May use pre-existing cleavages to mobilize supporters and oppose reforms

• Victorious actors (or the international community) must anticipate and plan for resistance

• Political compromises meant to ensure local stability and lessen violence may have lasting costs for domestic groups and the state

  • Understand short term trade offs and long term goods