Latin America Test 2

Mexico Flag

Connection to indigenous roots - eagle on a cactus with a snake in its mouth, was an aztec legend

Mexico Map

federal system (like the US): there is a federal and state government

• mexico city +31 states

Mexico Today

about 130 million people

• high rates of income inequality, poor distribution of wealth

• Latin America = most unequal region, not the poorest

• Top 1% of people went from holding 12% of the wealth to 30% from 2000 to now

• lots of insecurity, conflict, drug cartels and violence

• high rates of corruption (breeds inequality, leads to insecurity) 

Mexico - Early History

1519-1521: Cortes colonizes Mexico

1821: Mexican Independence: creates power vacuum, lots of fighting for control

1821-1860: about 50 different presidencies, Mexico lost territory to the US, breach of sovereignty 

1831-1915: Porfirio Diaz 

• strongman (caudillo), power vacuum lead to his rule

• 1879’s” he takes over, lasts for 35 years

• brought stability, improved economy, more law + order

• Under Diaz, US influence/power increased in Mexico. Eventually, people wanted sovereignty 

• By 1910, end of Diaz’s rule, us controlled over 70% of mines, over 60% of oil and the rest was owned by European companies 

Coup vs Revolution

• coup is to get rid of 1 particular leader, change in leadership

• Revolution: promises social change

Mexican Revolution 1910

originated among ruling generations, younger people didn’t have opportunities 

• Francisco Madero 

  • family was very wealthy (ruling class)

  • wanted a more democratic system

Revolution quickly expanded from elites to working class

• Poncho Villa 

  • leader to the jobless, workers, and small land owners

• Emiliano Zapata:

  • lead peasants looking for social change

  • Diaz had been taking land from peasants, wanted to return it

  • Social change, democracy and people wanted employment

1910-1917 Revolution

Started in 1910 when Diaz was re-elected in an unfair election

1911: Francisco Madero elected but there was a power vacuum after diaz. Madero and many of his successors were killed

1917 - new constitution written by 1 revolutionary group

1917: new constitution

• solidifies revolution, not a coup. Social change

• includes that the state owns natural resource so US/europe can’t take over

• puts state over church, church cant tell the government what to d

• government can re-distribute land

• workers rights (8 hour workdays, etc)

Changes didn’t take place immediately and didn’t end the fighting

1920: consolidation of power

• lots of regional caudillos fighting for control

• wanted to centralize power in the government by getting rid of caudillos

• Carrot: Caudillos take position in the government, or stick: get rid of them

• most bigger leaders including Zapata and Villa are killed

• new period of stability (1930’s)

PRI

PRI: Institutional Revolutionary Party (1929)

• founded by Plutarco Calles: agreement among elites to keep stable power

• appeared more democratic, but wasnt

• PRI held power from 1929-2000. Controlled legislature, courts and presidency

Lazaro Cardenas

• was governor of a state, chosen by PRI to be president, PRI wanted to rule through him (1934)

• gets corrupt officials like Calles arrested/deported

• Starts the changes from the constitution (nationalized oil, US is mad)

• Land reforms (more leftist)

• kicks off a period of stability

How did PRI stay in power

• support from people (stability, changes and better economy)

• PRI is more non-ideological: ha changed between right/left wing, isn’t stuck to one

• Party of Power: no ideology, just stays in power. Allows for flexibility

• controlled the media

• Clietelism/Patronage: using government resources to get support (bribing votes)

• Fraud, corruption, violence and fear

• Dedazo: term for the chosen successor to be president based on loyalty to PRI

Other Political Parties: Mexico

PAN (National Action Party): founded in 1939 in response to PRI

• made up of catholic activists that didn’t like PRI’s secularity

• Also worried about PRI’s economic left policies (too involved)

• center-right party socially and economically

PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution(: late 1980’s

• neoliberalism in late 1980’s led to left wing members of the PRI forming this party (Cardenas’s son helped found it)

• Center left, criticizes neoliberalism, wants more government involvement

Mexico remains a stable dictatorship through the 1970’s and the economy does well, PRI remains dominant

1980-1990’s

• cracks in PRI’s power: Mexico defaults on its loans in 1982

• people start to question regime: less money/resources

• First time PRI doesn’t get majority in the congress is 1997, now can’t pass legislature

• 2000: PRI loses the presidency, PAN wins (former coke exec)

2006: Felipe Calderon (PAN)

• PRI was in distant 3rd

• Major policy shift in how the government deals with drug cartels

• PRI was known to be working with cartels to limit violence/insecurity (would help cartel with drugs if they would keep the violence hidden)

• Calderon wants to take a militaristic approach to cartels (king pin strategy)

Mexico Drug Cartel Strategies

• incentivize loyalty to mexico, make people not corrupt

• increase belief in police force, pay and train them better

• more surveillance, work with the US mediation with gangs

• make drugs legal

• mexico only has 2 gun shops

• High rates of impunity (people aren’t prosecuted for crimes): 96% of crimes are never prosecuted. Judicial system resolved 1% of crimes

• violence against women and femicide is particularly high

• Indirect solutions to cartels: need more long term solutions

• Make other economic options for people wide systemic change

• work with gangs and the us

2012 - Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI)

• Calderon’s system is seen as a failure, highest rates of violence in Mexico

• Pena Nieto campaigned against these policies, promised to make cartels obsolete with more social approach

• PRI had more governing experience and was more peaceful

• Didn’t fulfill promises and had the lowest approval rating, increased military support

• said he would improve the economy, but increased debt and poverty rates

• violence rose to record high from that set by Calderon

• more corruption and scandal

2018 Election: Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador (AMLO) Morena

Party: Morena didn’t exist until 2019, National regeneration movement

• anti-incumbancy started during the pink tide, almost every election is won by the opposition

• Anti-establishment: huge increase globally, people dont like the establishment or parties, it iscorrupt and they want something new

Morena was popular but a lot of people just hated all parties

AMLO is very leftist with lots of political experience despite presenting himself as an outsider

won with 53% of the vote, which was a very high majority

Claudia Sheinbaum

• elected in 2024, morena candidate, AMLO’s successor, benefitted from his popularity

• vast majority of people say public security is the biggest problem in Mexico

• so far she has higher approval ratings than AMLO

• still same problem as AMLO with security, though it seems to be getting better

• is she just doing what AMLO wants?

  • she is a technocrat: focused on experts (she has a PhD) 

• More confrontational approach to security

  • extraditing people to the us

  • more arrests of mid level cartel people 

AMLO Reforms

Income inequality

• mexico has high income inequality, but AMLO improved equality especially through social programs trying to address roots of violence (poverty and lack of opportunities

• AMLO gave the military more power socially and economically: they distributed vaccines, etc

  • Under AMLO, poverty dropped from 42% - 29%

  • minimum wage went up 160%

  • populism: dividing society into elites (corrupt) and the people (good) not left right wing

  • populism explains popularity despite no security change 

Corruption

• AMLO didn’t address corruption as well 

• Mexico gets a very bad score for corruption

How is Mexico’s democracy today?

• In june of this year, mexico decided to elect all judges including the supreme court

• very controversial, might not be great for democracy

  • maybe not a fair election? 13% voter turnout

  • cheat sheets from Morena

  • Morena set low standards for being on the Ballot

  • Ballots counted by Morena

Chile Early History

• Chile has been historically more democratic than its neighbors

  • Civil war between those who thoght the president should have more power, and those who thought that congress should have more power, congress side wins

Parlaimentary Republic (1891-1924)

• More power to the parliament

• political parties, labor unions, etc, but army will put down strikes (not perfect democracy, but better than others)

• Early 1900’s” growing pressure for help with social problems (economy, etc)

• 1924: Liberal president in power says he will deal with issues and reform unions and welfare, however parliament is more conservaticve, doesn’t want reforms

September 1924

Coup

• group of young army officers gather in congress and demand reforms

• president steps down

• Junta: ruling group in power after taking power by force (military)

January 1925

New Coup

• new military group kicks out other group and re-instates the old president

• makes a new constitution

• next 8 years are chaotic with coups, dictatorships and turmoil 

• 1932: same president comes back 

Presidentail Republic (1932-1973)

• rise of the left

• Salvador Allende (the Candidate)

  • First ran in 1952, 5% of the vote, ran again and got 24% 

  • 1964: loses, but 38% of the vote, US is scared and backs other candidates

  • 1970: wins but its the height of the cold war and he is socialist

• 1973

  • Allende killed in a Coup funded by the US but led by Agosto Pinochet

  • Pinochet takes over as a military dictator

  • People thought the military would give back power as they did before

  • Dictatorship for 17 years (until 1990)

  • Chile then returns to a pretty strong democracy, which wouldn’t have been possible without the history of democracy

Rafael Correa

Late 1990’s: Social unrest arising from governmental instability, corruption and economic crisis

Rafael Correa: Electen in 2006 

• anti party independent

• funding social programs, standing up to global economic powers, new constitution

The Citizens Revolution

• Constituent Assempbly

  • public pressure for referendum

  • interim legislative powers and new constitution 2008

• Government control over economy

• social rights and programs

• decrease in poverty, unemployment and wealth inequality

Democratic Backsliding

• concentration of power under new constitution

  • increased term limit

  • erosion of checks and balances

  • media censorship

• Correista/o: supporter of Correa and his policies

• Re-elected in 2009, 2013

Shift to Neoliberalism

Lenin Moreno: elected 2017

• endorsed by correa

• economic decline, low oil prices, natural disease and COVID, debt leftover from correa

• right wing policies 

Guillermo Lasso: Elected 2021

• doubling down of right wing policies

• overall trend: changes made by Correa not sustainable, in crease in poverty 

Feeling of Safety and Ecuador

Feelings of safety decreased as homicides increased from 2014-2023

Drugs and Crime

Cocaine Train

• increase in production and consumption

• colombia and peru as hubs for production

• Ecuador: the perfect port: coastal and medial, inadequate law enforcement, lack of monitoring 

Gang Violence

• fight for control over cocaine routes and prisons

• removal of gang leaders, power vacuum

• diversification

• government complicity 

2023 Snap Election

Guillermo Lasso

• center right wing party

• unpopular due to government instability and economic policies

• January 2023 scandal: mismanagement of public companies 

  • national assembly votes for impeachment

Muerta Cruzada - Crossed/mutual death

• constitutional clause which forces disbandment of the National Assembly

• triggers a snap general election in six months for its effect date 

  • Snap election: an election that is called earlier than initially scheduled 

2023 Candidates

Luisa Gonzales

• left, Correista

• Claiming that Correa would be heavily involved in her administration

• reduce homicide rates and crime

Daniel Noboa

• center right

• businessman

• crackdown on violence 

2023 Election results

Noboa Wins

• term is only 1.5 years long

• harsh policies cracking down on crime

  • homicide rates drop

• Concern for human rights violations and authoritarian tendancies

  • military patrol the streets

2025 Election

• rematch between Noboa and Gonzalez

• Noboa plans to continue reducing crime rates and create more targeted policies, runs with similar campaign as 2023

• Gonzalez runs with the same campaign 

Ecuador Election Process

• president and leguslature elected at the same time every 4 years

• Elections use a run off system where candidate must have 40% of votes and have a minimum of a 10% lead over opponents 

• Mandatory voting system, citizens who fail to vote are fined 

• to promote voting elections are held on sundays and seen as community events 

2025 Election Results

2 rounds, but Noboa eventually won

• anti incombancy

How did Noboa Win?

• timing: Snap election gave Noboa a 1.5 year first term

• short term benefits approval ratings 

Security Crisis

• Noboa has been likened to Bukele for his approach to security threat. 

• ability to keep campaign promises 

Opponent

• Gonzalez continued to associate herself closely with correa, fear of becoming authoritarian

National Assembly

The country’s only law making branch

Opposing party to Noboa currently has more seats, meaning that Naboa doesn’t have complete control over the legislation 

Freedom House Schore

getting a bit worse due to deepening security crisis and threats to freedom of the press

Was the election seen as free and fair?

Gonzales didn’t accept the results and claimed fraud

• demanded recount

Not all agreed with gonzalez  

EU organization of American States determined that the election was free and fair 

What is Noboa doing about crime?

Pheonix Plan: national security plan

• joint operations of police and armed forces

• increase prison sentence and reorganizing prison infrastructure 

• increased port and border inspection 

Results

• more arrests

• more drugs seen 

Consequences

• extrajudicial killings

• enforced disappearances

• torturing of detainees

• denying access to legal counsel and medical care

• arbitrary arrests 

New Bukele

Naboa shouldn’t adopt Bukele Approach

• international cartels, not local unlike El Salvador

• Criminal groups in Ecuador are more disorganized than el salvador 

• larger population, mass incarceration won’t work 

Democracy in Ecuador 

Abuse by security forces is eroding the rule of law

decrease the power of democratic institutions such as the judiciary

• law passed allowing the president to declare internal armed conflict

• another law relaxes safeguards against abuses by state agents and intrusive intelligence gathering

The courts

• killing people before they can be prosecuted

• denial of rights to counsel

Civil Service

• civil servants are being laid off