are general elections lost by the government's weaknesses or won by the opposition's strengths?

a03

lost by the government

theme 1

leader

weak 1

opposition leaders are percieved as strong, fresh and trustworthy

• 1979 thatcher directly addressed issues surrounding the winter of discontent and issues like trade unions and inflation levels

• blair 1997 was young and charismatic

strong 1

government leader is percieved as weak and ineffective

• 1979 callaghan — sun: “crisis what crisis?” headline over the winter of discontent led him to appear incompetent → opinion polls jan 5th labour had a 6.6% lead and jan 15th cons 7.5% lead afterwards

theme 2

handling of the economy

weak 2

the opposition seem to have an economic plan (economics is often a salient issue)

• 1997 labour rebrand to new labour abandoning clause IV and endorsing market economics → third way appealed to many voters

strong 2

the government has presided over a time of economic difficulty. their handling of the economy has raised doubts over their governing competency

• 1992 UK forced out of the european exchange rate mechanism (ERM) and led to black wednesday = question conservative economic credibility as many have lost faith

theme 3

party unity

weak 3

the opposition party is united. voters are more likely to trust united parties

• 1997 Labour angel cabbie and things only get better appeared united and optimistic

strong 3

the government has significant disunity

• 1997 conservatives manifesto tried to emphasise stability “you can only be sure with the conservatives” but has no real unity fostered → split on one nation, tradiitonal and new right

theme 4

other policies

weak 4

the opposition party has fresh ideas and policies

• 1979 thatcher directly addressed the winter of discontent and promised to tackle trade unions and control inflation

strong 4

the governing party lacks attractive and dynamic policies for the future

• callaghan seen as oblivious to industrial unrest and winter of discontent eg. gravedigger strikes

• conservatives lost credibility 1997 following scandals and failures for the last 18 years eg. cash for questions 1994 where Harrods owner paid for questions in the commons and led to 2 resignations (mohammed al-fayed) eg. MP Tim Smith resigned