The Invisible Primary

Define the invisible primary

This is the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first caucuses/primaries

What are three significant things that occur during the invisible primary?

• Candidate announcements - formal announcement of their entering the Presidential race

• Televised party debates - intra-party debates with many candidates

• Fundraising - needs to accumulate a war chest to advertise and campaign which can improve poll ratings

Why isn’t the invisible primary ‘invisible’?

There is lots of media attention involved - candidates are considered seriously if the major newspaper outlets say they are.

What is the link between the winner of the invisible primary and the presidential candidate?

The frontrunner during the invisible primaries are usually the party nominee:

• 1976 Jimmy Carter

• 2016 Hillary Clinton

• Only didn’t occur once for Republicans in 2008

When there’s a clear frontrunner in an invisible primary, what happens to the other candiates?

• They usually drop out of the invisible primary since they rather know that they’re going to lose or run out of money

• E.g: Nikki Haley in March 2024

What is the link between a superior war chest and the winning candidate?

A superior war chest doesn’t usually predict a victory as they need popularity from both the public and party

How many candidates were there in the 2015 Republican primary?

There were 17 televised debates between the candidates before the first votes were cast in Iowa

What is the importance of the invisible primary?

• It is a crucial for a candidate to gain name recognition and money and to start organising the campaign

• The media attention helps the candidate gain popularity and funding

• Fundraising and building up a war chest

What is the evidence that invisible primary is not important?

• Incumbent President face no real opposition, so invisible primaries aren’t useful.

• Having a war chest doesn’t necessarily mean they’d secure the nomination - trump was behind financially at $25.5 mil