Arab springs 2011

Arab spring

• December 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi , Tunisia

• wave of protests in MENA demanding democratic reforms, better living conditions, and end to corruption

• Israel as a pretext to avoid democratization

• resulted into moderate reforms but also enduring violence, displacement, and oppression

Tunisia

• first success

• swift resignation and department of Ben Ali (23y gov)

Egypt

• january 2011, Tahrir Square

• resignation of Mubarak (30y gov)

• Marshall law

• Morsi elected president from the Muslim Brotherhood in 2012

• Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 2013 coup d’etat

Libya

• armed revolt against Gaddafi

• defeat in march 2011

• R2P intervention

• Gaddafi removed from power in oct 2011, following a violent civil conflict and killed by rebel forces

• now civil war, with West and East division, contributing to the global refugee crisis

• ceasefire 2020, not implemented yet

Syria

• march 2011

• revolts escalated to a full-blown civil war, Al-assad responded brutally

• immense human loss and mass displacement (20-25 million)

• Palestine

• ISIS

• December 2024 opposition forces captured damasco and Ahmed Al-Shaara became the transitional president

Yemen

• Jan 2011

• against President Ali Abdullah Saleh (40y gov)

• military and tribal leaders support

• million man march sep 2011

• Saleh share power and step down in feb 2012, vice president took over

• sectarian civil war 2014-15 Houthi (Iran) v gov of Hadi (Saudi Arabia)

• Saleh killed in 2017

Morocco

• May 2011

• clashes with the police

• Constitutional amendments aimed at curbing the monarchy’s authority — prevent uprising

Gulf monarchies

• supported arab springs but their ppl was asking the same

• Bahrain shia protests, suppressed by the government of King Al Khalifa

• gulf countries opposed bahrain protests

outcomes of the arab springs

• reversal of democratic goals

• humanitarian crisis

• denial of goals bc autocratic gov have regained power and crackdown civil liberties

• no lasting democratic changes besides Tunisia

tunisia post arab spring

• flawed democracy 2019

• since 2021 Saied full control of the country

• Saied dismiss parliament and implement presidential rule by decree

• new constitution presidential system with limited parliamentary power

• elections criticized turnout of 28%, no free or transparent

Region after the arab springs

• Egypt backslide to autoritarianism under Al-Sisi

• Lybia, Syria and Yemen potracted civil wars

• Emirates scorse have improved, in terms of transparency and economic freedom

• Morocco introduced reforms before

• massive displacement and refugees

Social issues after revolts

• Syria 7 mill displaced 6 mill refugees

• Yemen 4.5 millions IDP

• Libya 500,000 IDP and 60,000 refugees

Standard of living

• it has fallen especially in Syria, Lybia and Yemen

• factors include oil prices, high unemployment and unchanged corruption

• worsen after covid-19 pandemic

• youth unemployment rate regionally worse in the world

Press freedom in the region

• worse than before

• egypt top jailers of journalists

• tunisia cracked down media freedom

Women representation

• active in demostrantion, progress has been limited

• Bahrain, Egypt Lybia and Tunisia has seen marginal growth more seats in the parliament, but not improvement

Economist rank of democracy

• full democracy

• flawed democracy (tunisia)

• hybrid regime (Algeria, Morocco)

• authoritarian regime (mauritania, liya, pale, egypt, sudan, yemen, oman, saudi arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria)

impact of uprisings

• power vacuum

• competition for regional influence intensification of the new cold war

• Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia tried to exert influence in the destibilized states

countries where competition for external influence was max

• Yemen, vital for Saudi Arabia security, civil war

• Bahrain (shia revolution could have had a huge impact)

• Iraq and Lebanon, fragile governments focal points for external influence

instruments of interference

• media campaigns

• proxy wats by arming or supporting different factions

• direct military interventions (Emirati airstrikes in Libya)

• social media

• sunni coalition, saudi arabia, had the upper hand for these campaigns

• turkey champion of democracy positioned herself

2013-2017 regional power dynamics

1. failed turkey hegemony

2. the decline of GCC influence

3. Iran’s rising influence

Failed turkish hegemony

• tried to exert influence in MENA

• peaceful FP towards neighbouring countries, support for democratic islamist movements (muslim brotherhood)

• setback after three years of the uprisings, due to the situation in Syria (strenght of Assad, refugee)

• empowerment of Kurdish forces

• supporting sunni backfired with the rise of ISIS in the region, because support for sectarianism

key outcomes of failure of turkey

1. tensions with Iran over Syria

2. Iraq criticized Turkey over Iraqi Sunni and Kurdish affairs

3. Confclits emerged with Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Turkey political interventions

factors for erosion of Turkey’s role

1. sidelining of Muslim Brotherhood

2. backlash for supporting sunni militants in Syria

3. US cooperation with Syrian Kurdish forces against ISIS

4. Turkey involvment in conflict with Kurdish groups

response of turkey

it backed syrian opposition groups to counter kurdish forces and establish a military presence in northern Syria

the decline of the GCC

• Saudi Arabia used its wealth and pan-Arab media and educational networks to boost its soft power

• contradiction suppress of uprising v support of Salafist fundamentalism (e.g. in Yemen)

• indirect fueled jihadist movements such as Al Qaeda and Isis , turned critic of Saudi crowd

• intervention in Yemen backfired

• 2017 diplomatic rift with Qatar, weakened its position, benefitting turkey and iran

iran rising influence

• caused by the missteps of its adversaries and temporarily lifiting of international pressures

• JCPOA alliavated global threat, allowed Iran to redirect its resources towards regional power struggle

• Capitalized on ISIS,in Iraq, and Syria leveraging allied Shiaa militias like Hezbollah

• supported assad to cmbat ISIS

• solidified the concept of the Shia Crescent

• ties with hamas and houthis

• exploited factions in the sunni coalition, Qatar crisis, sway Qatar and Turkey away from Saudi Arabia and the UAE

• loss influence recently with the collapsed of the Assad regime and hamas and hezbollah loss o influence

Libya civil war

• proxy conflict characterized by international split

• Government of National Accord (GNA) against the Libyan national Army (LNA) by Haftar

• GNA supported by Italy (oil, security and migration) , Turkey (military support), Qatar (finance and military)

• LNA France (concern w terrorism), Russia (Wagner) and Egypt (anti-islamist coalition