why do states want nuclear weapons

forecasting proliferation

countries have used military force + global sanctions + international institutions to counter proliferation

supply/demand arguments

• supply: without supply of knowledge and parts, demand won’t matter so focus on supply

• demand: lots of states can build if desperate enough

security logic/dilemma

in anarchy, states must provide for their security via internal balancing (build up military capacities) or external balancing (create alliances)

nuclear security logic

nuclear weapons enhance your security

• if facing powerful threat, seek nuke; if not, don’t

nuclear security case - soviet union

no allies, scared of us, get nuke

nuclear security case - iraq

surrounded by threats, no ally, external constraints so no nuke

nuclear security case - uk

threat by soviets, weak ally, so nukes

political economy model

leaders’ political & economic choices affect proliferation, with liberal international policies discouraging it and inward-focused ones promoting

internationalizing regimes

less likely to pursue nukes bc they endanger internationalization (export-led growth)

inward-looking regimes

likely to pursue nukes because favor state enterprise & military-industrial complex (import-led growth), also grants legitmacy

norms model

nukes seen seen as immoral, leading to (NPT) where states agreed not to build nukes in exchange for civilian support

• strengthen norms that tie national identity/legitimacy to nonprolif

if norms model is right

nuke zero is possible if norms against possession get stronger

if security model is right

us can’t go nuclear zero, must keep nukes and use first-use doctrine