Comparative Politics

Comparative politics

The systematic attempt to explain variation across countries and within countries over time

Dependent and independent variable

Dependent: the outcome we want to explain

Independent: the hypothesised cause of DV (also known as explanatory or causal variable)

Causal mechanisms

The process or pathway through which a cause brings about an effect; explains how one thing leads to another. E.g. causal mechanisms of modernisation theory: education, middle-class, poor becoming less poor, and civil society

The three D’s

Development, democracy and diversity: 1. Why are some countries rich and others poor? 2. Why do some democracies break down and others don’t? 3. Why does ethnic diversity lead to violence in some countries but not others?

Variation

Why do some outcomes occur in some countries but not in others? - E.g. 1. Why are some countries rich and others poor? 2. Why do some democracies break down and others don’t? 3. Why does ethnic diversity lead to violence in some countries but not others?

Mill’s method of difference

“Most similar cases”: determines the cause by finding an attribute that is present when an outcome occurs, but is absent in similar cases when the outcome does not occur (e.g. Nicaragua and Honduras)

Method of agreement: several cases share an outcome and only one common attribute (e.g. Nicaragua and Iran)

Structuralism

An approach that examines deeply rooted social, economic, or cultural factors. Examples are modernisation theory and the cultural approach. A structuralist approach includes little room for agency.

Voluntarism

Approach that centres leaders and the decisions they make, for example, analysis of Nelson Mandela’s individual role in bringing racial reconciliation to South Africa. Includes much room for agency.

Institutionalism

Approach focused on the rules of the political game, and possible organisations too). Includes some room for agency.

Modernisation theory

Structuralist theory that emerged in the US post WW2, took off alongside decolonisation. Biggest claim: Lipset - “The more well-to-do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy”. Has two core ideas: (1) there is a fundamental distinction between traditional and modern societies, and (2) the path from traditional to modern is universal, all countries are fated to follow the same path and go through the same stages of economic development.

Causal mechanisms: education (linked with tolerance), strong middle class (reformist gradualism, good for democracy), poor becoming less poor (poor = social basis for political extremism), civil society (intermediary/voluntary organisations, particularly labour unions)

Cultural approach

Structural approach that disagrees with modernisation theory’s claim that there is a universal path for all states, ideas and values matter, and people behave differently depending on their culture. Culture is the cognitive lens through which we view the world. 

State, regime, government

State: set of permanent administrative, legal, and coercive systems that maintains a monopoly over the legitimate use of force in a given territory, e.g. army, policy, tax, bureaucracy etc. Doesn’t really change, permanent entity.

Regime: set of rules that determine how governments are formed and what they are allowed to do, it is the “political system”, e.g. democracy military regime, etc. Changes rarely, but can.

Government: group of people in power at a particular time, e.g. Morrison government or Albanese government. Changes often.

Development

Sustained increase in the standard of living on a country’s population, can be measured through GDP per capita (but doesn’t tell you how much inequality there is in a country) or HDI (GDP per capita (PPP) (wealth or acquisitive power) + life expectancy (health) + education)

Max Weber’s The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism

German sociologist and one of the founders of the social sciences, wrote The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism in 1905. DV: cross-regional variation, cross-national variation, subnational variation. IV: culture, religious ideas were emerging from the Protestants, reformation helped unleash the “spirit of capitalism”. “Spirit of capitalism”: acquisitiveness + austerity, applied to Calvinists. Calvinists believed in predestination, whether you go to heaven or hell is already decided. To prove that you were among the select few, you amassed wealth and didn’t waste it. Acquisitiveness + austerity led to accumulation of investment capital, helped lay the foundation for the industrial revolution. Weber believed that even if the original motivations for the Protestant ethnic have disappeared, the spirit of capitalism persists (iron cage) - only those with the Protestant ethic would develop (hard to square with Japan or China though).

Dependency theory

Unit of analysis is the international system instead of individual countries, divided into the core and periphery. The core is not a model for the periphery to follow, but the cause of the periphery’s underdevelopment. Took off in the 1970s due to the disappointing results of decolonisation, particularly influential in Latin America.

Version 1: crude dependency theory, starts with colonisation and exploitation, allowed the divide of the core and periphery, core continued the same behaviour even after states became independent. Declining terms of trade. 

Version 2: dependent development, periphery can develop, but lack of capital and technology results in different kinds of development. More precarious, benefits less widely shared, and more authoritarian. 

Inclusive vs. extractive institutions

“Asian Tigers”

Countries that grew from extremely poor to fully developed in about one generation, succeeded where other developing countries failed. 4 are South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong. China is not one because of its GDP per capita wealth.

Comparative advantage

Everyone does what they do best - economic principle that countries can produce a good or service at a lower opportunity cost than another, explains why specialization and trade can be mutually beneficial, because everyone focuses on what they do best

Developmental state

Theory of capitalist production that challenges both dependency theory and neoclassical economics. Argues for state-led industrialisation + export-oriented industrialisation.

State is technocratic (e.g. MITI), autonomous, interventionist, and has strong state capacity. 

Policies are industrial, pro-business, and export-oriented.

Regime is authoritarian.

Industrial policy

Industrial policy promotes the state acting as the “guiding hand” rather than Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”. It suggests that comparative advantage can be constructed, it is not simply given or pre-determined. Promotes state-owned enterprises, finance, tariffs, and research and development. 

“Embedded autonomy”

Solution to walking the tightrope of being an industrial, pro-business state, whilst also remaining autonomous. Embedded autonomy involves constant communications with favour business, but not beholden to them. 

Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) in Japan

Technocratic (highly educated and qualified officials), elite, “pilot agency” with broad powers over economic policy. Was necessary for the developmental state, steered the economy in a favoured direction. 

Park Chung-hee in South Korea

Military dictator who took power in 1961 and was assassinated in 1979. Used South Korea’s strong state to promote industrialisation. Instituted an Economic Planning Board (EPB), employed highly skilled technocrats, instituted five-year plans, industrial policy (tariffs, etc) allowed infant industries to grow, export-oriented government, pro-business, anti-labour, workers repressed, created Korea Inc. SK became fully industrialised, average annual growth in 1979 was 9.2%.

Predatory state

A state that preys upon an impoverished population rather than promoting economic development. Joseph Mobutu (1965-97) is the classic example of this.

Joseph Mobutu in Zaire

Leader of Zaire (DRC) from 1965-97. Led to the economy shrinking at 2% per year for 30 years.

Export-oriented industrialisation (EOI) vs. import substitution industrialisation (ISI)

Public contestation/competition vs. inclusiveness/participation

Cost of toleration vs. cost of repression

Promoted by Dahl, explains why authoritarian regimes are toppled/fail. Measures the costs of toleration/repression against the probability of a competitive regime. Increased repression = increased discontent, so countries are more likely to transition to democracy. Vice versa with the costs of toleration, decreasing them increases probability of transition to democracy. Example of this is creating pacts that give everyone a stake of power and mutual guarantees, appeases actors and lowers the cost of tolerating a more democratic world for them. Best example is Spain after Franco died, overrepresented rural areas, promised not to redistribute wealth, amnesty for human rights abuses.

Procedural minimum definition of democracy

Free and fair elections, full adult suffrage, civil liberties, no tutelary bodies

Military regimes, single-party regimes, personalist regimes

Loyal, disloyal, and semi-loyal opposition

Four problems faced by authoritarian governments

Pacts

An explicit agreement among a select set of actors which seeks to define rules governing the exercise of power on the basis of mutual guarantees for the ‘vital interests of those entering into it (e.g. Spain after Franco died, negotiations between what was left of Franco’s regime and the previously excluded democratic advocates)

Mohandas Gandhi

Leader of the independence movement, founded the Indian National Congress party, advocated for non-violence and nation-building

Jawaharlal Nehru

Disciple of Ghandi, prime-minister from 47-64, pushed for democracy and underutilised power

Indian National Congress (Congress Party)

Mass/”big tent” party, secular, although economically all over the place, governed for the first 30 years of India’s independence, today is a shadow of its former self

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

Hindu nationalist party currently in power, Narendra Modi is from the BJP

Third wave of democratisation

Wave of democratisation beginning in the mid-1970s, no one saw it coming. Affected Southern Europe, Latin America, parts of Asia, Eastern Europe, parts of Africa, and former Soviet Union. The number of democracies in the world nearly tripled by the year 2000.

“Catholic wave”

Changes in international Catholicism, affected democratic development in Spain, Portugal, Philippines, Latin American countries). The Second Vatican Council (1962-65) instituted major reforms. Previously spoke in Latin, facing away from the congregation. Now spoke English closer to the people, move to become closer to the masses. Initiated by Pope John Paul II. Church decided that democracy is consistent with Catholicism, went against dictators in the Philippines, and initiated a mass movement in Poland (Solidarity) in an attempt to overthrow the communists.

Mikhail Gorbachev

Soviet leader of the mid-1980s, created changes to the Soviet Union. Introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring). Soviet Union no longer propped up satellite regimes in Eastern Europe, leading the collapse of communism in 1989. USSR itself collapsed in 1991. 

Jimmy Carter

US President from 77-81, introduced focus on human rights and democracy to US foreign policy. Also brought an evangelical Christian influence to foreign policy. Since his presidency, the US has been more supportive of democracy than in the past. Although Reagan followed him and briefly went back to the Nixon ways, even he became more pro-human rights in his second term.

Conditionality (positive and negative)

Demonstration effect

People draw inspiration from events in other countries. E.g. Spain/Portugal and Latin America, and Eastern Europe. 

Apartheid

Racial oligarchy of South Africa, perpetuated by the National Party from 1948-94. Apartheid means “separateness”, it was a kind of authoritarian regime as democracy only existed for whites. Black people were forcibly removed from most cities and moved into “townships” (slums"), or out of the city into “bantustans” (homelands). The government also passed laws that regulated movement in and out of cities, but allowed for the economy that depended on black (“migrant”) workers. White factory workers were paid 6x more than black workers, and white miners were paid 21x more.

National Party

Ruling party of South Africa from 1948-1994. Passed laws instituting the racial oligarchy of South Africa. 

Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress (ANC)

F. W. de Klerk

Competitive authoritarianism

Civilian regimes in which formal democratic institutions exist and are widely viewed as the primary means of gaining power, but in which incumbents’ abuse of the state places them at a significant advantage vis-à-vis their opponents.. Such regimes are competitive in that opposition parties use democratic institutions to contest seriously for power, but they are not democratic because the playing filed is heavily skewed in favour of incumbents. Competition is thus real but unfair. There are 30+ competitive authoritarian regimes. They are mostly a post-Cold War phenomenon due to international pressure to adopt outward trappings of democracy. Competitive authoritarian regimes draw from a menu of manipulation including: (limited) fraud, e.g. Evo Morales in Bolivia, (limited) coercion, e.g. Morgan Tsvangira in 2007 Zimbabwe, legal repression, access to the media, access to state resources. There are two paths to competitive authoritarianism, either full regimes becoming less repressive, or democratic backsliding.

Authoritarian durability

Resource curse

Revolutionary regimes

Authoritarian successor parties

Ethnicity

A group identity based on belief in a common ancestry, based on ascriptive characteristics. As a broad umbrella, it captures characteristics like race, religion, language, caste, etc. Ethnic identities tend to evolve out of which details population choose to become “salient”.

Primordialism vs. constructivism

Primordialism: an approach to the study of ethnicity that takes ethnic identities as inherent and largely fixed. Implications: (1) ethnicity is here to stay, (2) ethnic conflict should be common, (3) groups fight due to ancient hatred, they always have and always will hate each other. Issues: ethnic identities are quite fluid, e.g. Italians were previously not considered white but got transmogrified

Constructivism: an approach to the study of ethnicity that takes ethnic identities as malleable and socially constructed. Unlike primordialists, they reject the idea that ethnic identities can simply be take as a “given”, but is in fact dependent on the social and political context. Implications: (1) different rules regarding identity should be found in different places, e.g. one drop rule, (2) should find that ethnic violence increases/decreases in intensity, (3) ethnic entrepreneurs play a big role in politicising identity, people fan the flames of ethnic divisions for their self-interest. Issues: some differences are pretty objective and some hatreds are pretty ancient, could be labelled as politically correct bullshit, e.g. anti-gingerism wouldn’t work, there needs to be something for people to draw on

Ethnic entrepreneurs

People who fan the flames of division and politicise ethnic identity for self-interest, part of the constructivist argument.

Brazil’s “racial democracy”

Brazil is about 50% black, refers to itself as a racial democracy. Race is very fluid, over 100 categories of colour, not as ‘black and white’ as countries like the US. However, this isn’t entirely true. Brazil received so many Africans due to the slave trade, Portugal imported slaves to work the biggest sugar plantation industry in the world. Even after slavery was abolished and Brazil was trying to develop as a modern nation, there was a view that achieving civilization involved a ‘whitening’ process. The government increased immigration from white countries and cracked down on traditionally ‘black’ activities, e.g. capoeira. These racial prejudices still exist today. The richest areas of Brazil are the whitest, and the poorest are the blackest. Magazine covers are still dominated by white women, and race remains a factor in marriage and building a family. Brazil’s “racial democracy” is more an ironic joke than anything.

Ranked vs. unranked ethnic groups

Hutu and Tutsi

Hutu Power

Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF)

Paul Kagame

Consociational democracy

Grand coalition government

Proportionality

Segmented autonomy

Mutual veto

Dutch “pillars” (zuilen)

Partition of India/Pakistan

Institution

Institutional design

Informal Institution

Dedazo in Mexico

Institutional strength/weakness

stability and enforcement

Juan Linz and the “perils of presidentialism”

Presidentialism 

Parliamentarism

Fixed terms

Dual legitimacy

Vote of no confidence

Risks of presidentialism?????

Coalitional presidentialism

Electoral system

Electoral formula

Plurality (“first past the post”)

Proportional representation (PR)

Party list

District magnitude

Electoral district

Electoral threshold (explicit or implicit)

Political party

Party-predominant, two-party, moderate multi-party, and extreme multi-party systems

Duverger’s Law

Party system institutionalisation

State strength/capacity

State scope/size

“Fit” states vs. “fat” states

Tax capacity

Homicide rate

State collapse/failure

Bellicist (war-centred) theory