US-ELECTIONS AND DEMOCRACY

What are three formal requirements to be president?

-Need to be at least 35 years old

-Born in the US

-You cannot serve more than two terms

Where does it state you have to be 35 years old?

-Article 2 of the constitution

What are three informal requirements to be president?

-Lots of experience

-Lots of Wealth

-You are judged on the content of your policies

What is a state primary?

The process through which the people get to vote on who should be their party’s candidate

What is the invisible primary?

The period of time between a candidate’s declaration of running for an elected office and prior to the beginning of the primary season

What is the significance of the invisible primary?

It provides an opportunity for serious candidates to raise money, gain support and be seen as frontrunners to be the nominee for their party.

What are three factors that impact the success of a presidential candidate in the invisible primary?

-Endorsements

-Wealth

-Enhancing media image

Give an example of how endorsements influence the invisible primary

During the 2008 Democratic invisible primary, Obama secured a decisive boost when Senator Ted Kennedy endorsed him , followed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (April 2008). By the end of the invisible primary period, Obama had won the support of a majority of Democratic superdelegates

Give an example of how wealth effects success in the invisible primary

In the 2016 Republican invisible primary, Trump’s personal wealth allowed him to bypass traditional party funding networks. He loaned his campaign $48.8 million by May 2016 and later over $66 million, which forced people like Ted Cruz withdraw

Give an example of how media image effects success in the invisible primary

Trump dominated the invisible primary through media exposure rather than party support, receiving an estimated $2 billion–$5 billion in free media coverage during the 2015–16 primary season eg. Fox News and CNN

What is the purpose of the primary and caucus?

How is this done?

This is when after the invisible primary the candidates have to convince the public that they are the ones who will win the presidency

-Chosen Delegates go the national convention for each party and will cast their vote for the preferred candidate who will then become the nominee for the presidential election

What is a primary?

What is a caucus?

-A state based election to choose a party’s candidate for an elective office

-Public meet ups whereby people persuade others to join them in support of another candidate

What are three factors that effect the outcome of primaries?

-The timing of primaries

-Endorsements

-Media exposure

Give an example for timing of Primaries

Obama’s victory in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, where he won 37.6% of the vote ahead of Hillary Clinton , came before most states voted and transformed perceptions of his electability. This early win generated immediate momentum allowing Obama to compete effectively on Super Tuesday

Give an example for endorcements

By February 2016, she held the backing of over 450 superdelegates, compared to around 20 for Bernie Sanders, signalling to voters and donors that she was the establishment’s preferred and most electable candidate , which helped her dominate early large-state primaries such as South Carolina

Give an example for how media image increases chances in primary

Trump’s unprecedented media exposure shaped the 2016 Republican primaries: he received an estimated $2–5 billion in free media coverage across Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and NBC during the early voting period, boosting name recognition and helping him win early contests such as New Hampshire

What are three criticism of the primary/Caucus system?

-Tends to be a show of partisan politics

-Limited Participation

-State’s later in the primary have limited impact

Give an example for partisan politics

During the 2016 Republican primaries, eg .the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary Trump focused on appealing to the party base rather than the general electorate. His success relied heavily on energising hardcore Republican voters with strong partisan messaging on immigration and trade, while establishment candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio struggled to gain traction

Give an example for limited participation?

In the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, president Donald Trump won the contest with 51% of the vote, but only about 15% of the state’s registered Republicans actually participated in the caucus

Give an example of state’s having limited impact

In the 2008 Republican primaries, by the time California voted John McCain had already secured enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee, meaning later states had minimal influence on the outcome despite their large populations eg. Florida

What are three benefits of the primary/Caucus process?

-Increases political involvement by the people

-Allows increased state influence

-Is not partisan

Give an example for increasing political involvement by the people

Across the 2008 primaries and caucuses, more than 6.5 million people under age 30 participated, nearly doubling the youth turnout rate from 9 % in 2000 to 17 % in 2008 nationally, and Obama captured about 60 % of the youth vote,

Give an example for how it increases individual state influence

Despite being a small state New Hampshire holds the first presidential primary in the nation, meaning its results get disproportionately high attention In the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary Donald Trump won with 54.% of the vote against Nikki Haley

Give an example for it not being partisan

In the 2020 Democratic primaries, the system allowed a wide range of candidates from the same party to compete on policy differences rather than party loyalty. For example, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders and others all contested openly, with voters choosing based on policy platforms and electability

What does it mean for primary/causes to be fit for purpose?

-Good Representation

-Good participation

-Not partisan etc

What are national nominating conventions?

How are they chosen?

Essentially it’s the formal coronation of each party’s candidate for President

-They have to get the most votes in the Primary and Caucus system via the delegates

What are three functions of the national nominating convention?

-A roll call vote in which each state’s delegates announce which candidate they vote for

-Deciding the party platform the party believes will give the candidate the best chance of winning

-To unite the party after bitter campaigns in the primary

Give an example of the roll call vote

2020 Democratic National Convention in which they held a live, televised state-by-state roll-call vote, with each state and announcing how many delegates they were awarding to Joe Biden, culminating in Biden formally reaching and surpassing the 1,991 delegates required for nomination.

Why is this insignificant?

The number of votes each candidate is going to get at the convention is largely known before it takes place

What does it mean by deciding the party platform?

Deciding the manifesto to best boost the party’s chance of success

Give an example

The 2016 Republican party platform included policies such as calling for the appointment of judges that would overturn the ruling of Obergefell vs Hodges and strict immigration restrictions(border wall)

What is the counter?

The policies are often more dominated by the candidate themselves eg. The idea of building a wall was a trump policy rather than one developed by the platform committee

Give an example of uniting the party

In ads both Sanders and Hilary Clinton threw jabs at each other with Sanders saying Clinton was ‘bank funded’ and Clinton criticising Sander’s rigid view on gun ownership but even so at the end Sanders said he was proud to stand with Clinton tonight at the convention

How did the electoral college system originally work and what changed?

Original View: Each elector cast two votes for president, with no distinction between president and vice president; the candidate with the most votes became president and the runner-up became vice president. Electors were expected to use their own judgement rather than follow public opinion or party instruction

Change: Electors are now party-aligned and pledged to vote for their party’s nominee, making the Electoral College largely a formality. The 12th Amendment ended the two-vote system by requiring electors to cast separate votes for president and vice president. All states now use popular elections to choose electors (except Maine and Nebraska’s district system variation), and the winner-takes-all system in most states means the outcome is driven by state popular votes

What are the arguments in favour of keeping the electoral college?

-It maintains federalism due to small state advantages

-Produces stable election outcomes

-Allow individual state choice on how to do elections

How does it maintain federalism?

Since each state gets 2 Senators regardless of the population smaller states automatically get more represented as they get more represented compared to the size of the population.

What does this mean in terms of small state influence?

Presidents cannot neglect small states as they may lose lose large influence to political opponents

Give an example of this

Wyoming has 3 electors 580,000 people so has roughly 1 elector per 193,000 people, while California has 54 electors, for 39 million people and so has 1 elector per 720,000 people.

What is the counter?

Most small states that are safe Republican or safe Democratic are largely ignored because their outcomes are predictable. In 2020, over 95% of campaign events and advertising spending were concentrated in just 12 competitive swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Give an example for maintaining policial stability

Since 1804, only two elections (1876 and 2000) produced major legitimacy disputes despite over 50 presidential elections. In 2020, Biden won the Electoral College 306–232,

Give an example of allowing individual state choice

For example, in 2020, states like Maine and Nebraska use a district-based allocation of electors, allowing candidates to campaign in specific congressional districts rather than relying solely on statewide totals

What are three electoral college criticisms?

-Conflict between electoral college vote and popular vote so distorts who win

-Protects the two party system

-Leads to prioritisation of swing states

Give an example of the conflict between electoral college vote and popular vote

On 5 occasions the person chosen to be president has not one the popular vote eg. in 2016 Donald Trump won 304–227 electoral votes while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.9 million.

Give an example of how it protects the two party system

In 1992, Ross Perot won 18.9% of the national popular vote but received 0 electoral votes, demonstrating how the Electoral College discourages viable third-party challenges and reinforces the dominance of Democrats and Republicans.

What are three reforms that should be made to the electoral college?

-A direct popular vote

-Congressional districts

-Ranked Choice Voting

What is a popular vote?

How would it help?

-Where people vote and the candidate with the most votes wins

-People’s votes should decide elections not intermediary bodies ( the delegates)

What example could you use?

Hilary Clinton won the popular vote and still lost

What is the congressional district system?

How would this help?

-Districts are allowed a certain number of votes along with an extra two votes awarded to the candidate that wins the popular vote

-Avoids the tyranny of larger states as smaller districts still have an equal say

What example?

Counter?

-Nebraska /Maine case

-May just lead to candidates funnelling campaigns in districts again , due to the smaller sizes of districts

What is Ranked Choice Voting?

How would this help?

-Where voters list candidates in order of preference with whoever getting 50% and over winning

-Helps to avoid people voting for the lesser of two evil candidate and actually the one they like the most

Give an example

NYC used RCV in the 2021 Democratic mayoral primary, involving 13 candidates. Eric Adams won only 30.7% of first-choice votes, but after multiple rounds of redistribution, he secured a majority. Under a plurality system (similar logic to the Electoral College at state level), a candidate could have won with far less representative support.

What does incumbency mean?

Why is incumbency important?

The person who is currently in office when the election takes place

-People are aware of your competence in office and you have name recognition which makes it easier to get funding

What are three ways in which incumbency impacts elections in the US?

-Strong oppostion

-Performance in office

-Party Transitions

What is meant by strong opposition here?

When it comes to presidential re-election if one faces a strong opposition in the primaries it’s hard to win

Give an example

Incumbent President Donald Trump faced a unified and mobilised Democratic opposition. Joe Biden consolidated moderate and progressive Democrats, while anti-Trump turnout surged: Biden won 51.3% of the popular vote and the election

Give an example for presidential performance

US Presidential Election 1980 in which incumbent Jimmy Carter was judged on economic performance and foreign policy with the Iran Hostage crisis lasting 444 days and inflation at 13.5% he lost

Give an example for party transitions

After two terms of Democratic President Barack Obama, Democrats ran Hillary Clinton. Despite winning the popular vote (48.2%), Clinton lost when Donald Trump won 304 electoral votes to 227, showing how party transitions after long incumbency can weaken electoral prospects.

What is the best example to show incumbency is still important

Barack Obama won re-election against Mitt Romney despite economic weakness (unemployment at 7.8%) Obama used incumbency advantages eg. high visibility during crises (e.g. Hurricane Sandy, October 2012) becoming the first Democratic president since FDR to win a majority twice.

What are three ways leadership impacts elections?

-The character of the President

-Does the president represent strength or weakness?

-Image as ‘one of the people’

Give an example

In 2020 Donald Trump: Trump’s character was a central issue, with voters citing concerns over truthfulness and conduct eg. Trump repeatedly downplayed the virus, promoted unproven treatments and repeatedly claimed widespread voter fraud without evidence during the campaign, undermining confidence in his honesty.

What is the counter?

Conduct is not always important eg. Trump made many vulgar statements about women(Hollywood access tape) and had 4 criminal indictments yet still won in 2024 . gaining 100 million dollars the next day

What is an example for strength/ Weakness associated with the president

In 2024 following the failed assassination attempt in Butler county the image of trump standing arm aloft with his ear bleeding shouting ‘fight’ and that ‘god spared his life for a reason’ changed the trajectory of the election allowing him to win 312 electoral college votes and 74 mill votes

What is an example for ‘one of the people imagery’

In 1992 the day after Clinton had secured the democratic party nomination he appeared on the Arsenio Hall show playing Heartbreak Hotel on the saxophone which captivated ethnic minority and young voters

What do issues mean in this context?

Any questions of policy which are not universally agreed upon

What are three ways issues impact elections?

-Focus on the economy

-Key policy platforms

-Appeal to young voters

What is the best example relating to the economy?

-In 2024 Kamala Harris decided to continue with her support for Biden’s unpopular ‘Bidenomics’ ( growing the economy from the bottom up with corporations paying their fair share of taxes) which led to 2/3rd of Americans arguing this was wrong /with Trump seen as strong alternative.

What is an example for policy platforms?

In 2008 Obama based his policy mainly around healthcare reform with 73% saying that was very vital for their vote. Obama’s Medicaid proposal to prevent health insurance companies from denying coverage to people based on their existing health condition resonated with voters.

Give an example for young voters

In 2024 Harris built her campaign on identity politics with an alliance between LGBTQ and people of colour , focusing on progressive views like climate change which appealed to young women in college but not men with up to 55% focused on US - Mexico border immigration

What is media in this context?

A medium through which candidates can portray themselves and be viewed

What are three ways media can shape electoral outcomes?

-Increase voter relatability

-To harness publicity

-Attack political opponents

Give an example for raising relatability

In 2024 Trump managed to use the media in order to achieve gains with key voter bases. He appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast with 81% male listenership with the interview posted in October on Youtube. It was viewed 40 million times by the end of the month.

Give an for harnessing publicity

In 2024 false claims were made by Elon Musk, receiving 2 billion views with one tweet claiming that Democrats were importing illegal voters which was viewed 47 million times. His total combined views were twice as much as any other political campaigns

What is the counter?

It is more likely this just reinforced existing views rather than swinging independent voters

What is evidence for attacking political opponents?

In 2012 Obama released a 30 second ‘Remember Ad’ which attacked his opponent Matt Romney for being in the pocket of the big , wealthy oil companies and his record at Bain Capital( investment fund), portraying him as out of touch with ordinary Americans

What is the best example against media not being important?

Despite many negative comments being made about Trump in the media regarding his 2005 Hollywood Tape with crude things said about women and his statements on Mexican immigrants with Hilary even securing 48.2 % of the popular vote she still lost the election

What is Matching funds and Super -Pacs?

Matching funds= Money given by the gov to candidates

Super Pacs- A committee which accepts independent , unlimited donations from candidates to fund individual campaigns

What are three ways money impacts election?

-Spending on Media exposure

-Campaign Organisation

-Wealthy donors / Super PACs

Give an example for spending on media exposure impacting elections

In 2016 Donald Trump’s campaign spent 30 million dollars focusing advertising and messaging on traditionally Democratic “Blue Wall” states ,criticising Clinton in states she was expected to win eg. Pennsylvania. Trump won all 5 of these states

Give an example for Campaign Organisation

In the 2008 election Obama raised $745 million in total campaign funds. His campaign opened over 700 field offices nationwide, compared to around 300 for John McCain. This allowed him to win places like Virginia with 200,000 votes( last time demos one was in 1964)

Give an example for Super Pacs

In the 2016 election the Mercer family donated over $25 million to pro-Trump causes, including Make America Number 1 Super PAC. This Super PAC funded Cambridge Analytica, which ran data-driven digital ads targeting voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump was these three states

How may money be shown to not impact elections?

In the 2016 election Hilary Clinton spend 1.2 billion while Trump spent almost half of that at 650 billion Clinton outspent Trump in key swing states and dominated traditional advertising but Trump won the presidency with 304 electoral votes to 227, flipping Blue wall states.

Why else may money not be significant, relating to what wealthy donors expect back?

These people donate to the most likely candidate to win in return for political influence and so money doesn’t create winners it follows them

-After Joe Biden’s decisive wins on Super Tuesday in 2020 major donors and party elites rapidly shifted their financial support towards him with donations from groups like Priorities USA Action, which spent over $100 million

What are three advantages of campaign finance?

-Encourages participation via small donations

-Protects Free speech

-It doesn’t automatically decide electoral success

Give me an example to show campaign finance enhances participation

Bernie Sanders in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns raised the majority of funds from small donations averaging under $30,

Give an example for protecting free speech under the 1st amendment

Citizens United v. FEC (2010) ruled that independent political spending by groups is protected speech, reinforcing pluralism and the ability to express political views eg. through Super-Pacs

Give an example of how it doesn’t automatically decide electoral success

In the 2016 election Hilary Clinton spend 1.2 billion while Trump spent almost half of that at 650 billion Clinton outspent Trump in key swing states and dominated traditional advertising but Trump won the presidency with 304 electoral votes to 227, flipping Blue wall states.

What are three disadvantages of campaign finance?

-Allows wealthy donors to influence policy

-Lack of transparency via dark money

-Votes alone no longer shape electoral outcomes

Give an example of wealthy donors influencing policy

In 2024 Elon Musk spent over $250 million — to support Donald Trump in the U.S. election. This allowed him direct access to policy as he headed ‘DOGE’ in which laid of more than 200,000 workers

Give an example of dark money usage

In the 2024 U.S. federal election cycle, dark money groups poured about $1.9 billion into influencing federal races, a record high for this type of spending.eg. Future Forward USA PAC, where millions in unnamed contributions helped finance ads promoting Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign,

Give an example of it removing focus from communicating voters etc

In the 2020 Democratic primary Michael Bloomberg Spent approximately $500 million of his own money on his campaign. He bypassed early debates and grassroots campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, relying almost entirely on ads to reach voters.

What are short terms factors that affect elections?

-The candidates, policy platforms , issues etc

What are long term factors that affect elections?

Age , Region Gender, religion, socio-economic status

What is partisan dealignment?

When voters gradually stop identifying strongly with a political party, and instead make choices based more on individual candidates, specific issues, or short-term factors.

What is an example to show that age is significant in determining election outcomes?

In the 2020 presidential election, younger voters (18–29) heavily favoured Biden, with 60% support, whereas older voters (65+) favoured Trump with 54% support

What about against age having significant effects?

In 2016, Trump won older voters (65+) with 52%, but Clinton still got 55% of the youth vote—yet she lost the election. So age alone didn’t determine the winner

What about gender determining elections?

In 2016 Hilary Clinton had the largest differentia between female and male voters( 54% women and 41% men) while Trump had the same but for with men at 54% and women and 41%

What about against?

In the 2000 Al Gore vs Bush Election the split between males and females in their voting behaviour was minimal. With Gore winning 51-47% women and vice versa for Bush with males

How can Race be shown to have a huge impact on elections

The Democrats have been seen as the party championing BAME rights, being the party that signed the Civil Rights Act 1968 which led to 95% of Black Americans voting for Obama in 2008 and 89% for Hilary

What about against?

In 2016, Trump gained about 8% of the Black vote—showing that race alone doesn’t perfectly predict outcomes.

How can region be shown to influence elections?

In 2016 Trump won towns and rural areas by 27 points which was much more than Romney who won by 2 points in 2012 as white older voters in these areas felt they had been neglected since the 2008 crisis aiding him to win even though he lost the popular vote