IHS crude oil projection

Projected Brent crude price by the end of 2028

As low as $50/bbl.

Main reason for anticipated sharp drop in crude prices during 2025–2028

Accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts.

Effect of decline in non-OPEC+ production after 2028

It could provide time for OPEC+ to regroup and set the stage for a price recovery.

OPEC+ members expanding production capacity

Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates.

Reason OPEC+ may be unwilling to implement further production cuts

No appetite for further cuts, with Saudi Arabia unwilling to cut unilaterally.

Impact of low crude prices on US crude oil production growth

Low prices are likely to hinder US crude production growth.

Expected Brent crude price by 2032 after inventory surplus shrinks

Around $75/bbl.

Regions from which marginal barrel of oil is expected by 2050

Deepwater Brazil, US Gulf of Mexico, and higher-cost US tight oil.

Factor that could alter oil market psychology and support price recovery

Signs of weak US crude supply growth and decline.

Long-term Dated Brent price forecast for 2045 in constant 2024 dollars

$69/bbl.

How global crude inventory level affects impact of OPEC+ production changes on price

Low global crude inventories mean that even if OPEC+ pauses unwinding cuts, the price impact is lessened.

Base case assumption about OPEC+ production cuts announced in 2023

It assumes accelerated unwinding of the 2.2 million b/d cuts.