IHS crude oil projection

What is the projected Brent crude price by the end of 2028 according to the new forecast?

Answer: As low as $50/bbl.

What is the main reason for the anticipated sharp drop in crude prices during 2025–2028?

Answer: Accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts.

How does a decline in non-OPEC+ production affect crude prices after 2028?

Answer: It could provide time for OPEC+ to regroup and set the stage for a price recovery.

Which OPEC+ members are mentioned as expanding production capacity, contributing to increased supply?

Answer: Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates.

Why might OPEC+ be unwilling to implement further production cuts to defend prices?

Answer: There is no appetite for further cuts, and Saudi Arabia is unwilling to cut unilaterally.

What impact do low crude prices have on US crude oil production growth?

Answer: Low prices are likely to hinder US crude production growth.

What is the expected Brent crude price by 2032 after the inventory surplus shrinks?

Answer: Around $75/bbl.

By 2050, from which regions is the marginal barrel of oil expected to come?

Answer: Deepwater Brazil, US Gulf of Mexico, and higher-cost US tight oil.

What factor could begin to alter oil market psychology and potentially support price recovery?

Answer: Signs of weak US crude supply growth and decline.

What is the long-term Dated Brent price forecast for 2045 in constant 2024 dollars?

Answer: $69/bbl.

How does the global crude inventory level affect the impact of OPEC+ production changes on price?

Answer: Low global crude inventories mean that even if OPEC+ pauses unwinding cuts, the price impact is lessened.

What does the base case assume about OPEC+ production cuts announced in 2023?

Answer: It assumes accelerated unwinding of the 2.2 million b/d cuts