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What is risk assessment?
A process used to predict and manage violence and criminal offending.
What major legal cases are associated with the history of risk assessment?
Baxstrom v. Herald (1966) and Dixon v. Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (1971).
What is the base rate for violence according to Baxstrom and Dixon studies?
The base rate for violence is low, while the false positive rate is high.
In which contexts are risk assessments likely to be conducted?
Legal, clinical, school/workplace, and threats to protectees.
What is the legal context of risk assessment?
Decisions made in litigation or administrative tribunals, such as civil commitment or criminal sentencing.
What does the clinical context of risk assessment involve?
Interventions aimed at reducing the risk of violence or offending within a treatment relationship.
What are examples of clinical interventions in risk assessment?
Interventions in secure settings and voluntary mental health treatment in the community.
What is assessed in school/workplace contexts of risk assessment?
Threats of harm to individuals not yet involved in formal legal proceedings.
What are threats to protectees in risk assessment?
Threats directed at specific individuals, such as domestic partners or public figures.
At what major decision points are risk assessments often conducted?
Pretrial, sentencing, and release.
What is a base rate?
The probability of something occurring without the influence of other conditions.
Why are base rates important in risk assessment?
They provide critical comparisons for the effectiveness of treatments and interventions.
What is the implication of low base rate behaviors in prediction?
It is difficult to accurately predict occurrences of low base rate behaviors like violence or suicide.
What is the base rate problem in forensic treatment?
Accurate categorizations cannot be made without considering base rates.
What cognitive bias can be influenced by base rates?
Confirmation bias, as clinicians may be swayed by recent experiences.
What is the availability heuristic?
A cognitive bias where people rely on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a specific topic.
How do base rates relate to forensic psychology/psychiatry?
Many target behaviors in forensics have low base rates, making risk labels potentially misleading.
What are the Canadian homicide rates per 100,000?
Approximately 2, which remains relatively low.
What are the Canadian suicide rates per 100,000?
Around 11.3, indicating a significant but not extremely prevalent issue.
What does a 50% increase in a base rate of 0.5/100,000 mean?
It would only increase the rate to 1 per 100,000.
What is a base rate in risk assessment?
The base rate refers to the prevalence of a certain behavior or characteristic within a population.
What is a false positive?
A false positive occurs when a test indicates the presence of a condition when it is not actually present.
What does sensitivity measure in risk assessment?
Sensitivity measures the proportion of true positives correctly identified by a test.
What does specificity measure in risk assessment?
Specificity measures the proportion of true negatives correctly identified by a test.
What are some factors that can affect base rates?
Factors include different operational definitions, lengths of follow-up, contexts of behavior, types of offenses, and rates of jurisdictional apprehension.
What is the significance of a 2% base rate in violent recidivism?
A 2% base rate indicates a low probability of violent recidivism in the population over 10 years.
What happens to the likelihood of violent recidivism with a 30% base rate?
The likelihood of violent recidivism rises to near 80% with a 30% base rate.
What is the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model?
The RNR model assesses three domains: risk, need, and responsivity to guide intervention strategies.
What does 'risk' refer to in the RNR model?
Risk refers to the probability that an individual will engage in certain behaviors, such as violence or crime.
What are static risk factors?
Static risk factors are historical factors that cannot be changed, such as criminal history or age.
What are dynamic risk factors?
Dynamic risk factors are variables that can change over time, such as criminal attitudes or behaviors.
What is the goal of addressing criminogenic needs?
The goal is to plan interventions that target and change dynamic risk factors related to criminal behavior.
What does responsivity refer to in the RNR model?
Responsivity refers to the extent to which an individual can respond to criminogenic interventions.
What is the difference between risk assessment and risk management?
Risk assessment evaluates the likelihood of harmful behavior, while risk management involves strategies to mitigate that risk.
What is an example of a context where risk assessment is crucial?
In civil commitment, determining whether an individual poses a risk to themselves or others is critical for involuntary hospitalization.
What are historical risk factors?
Historical risk factors include past antisocial behavior and age of onset of such behavior.
What are dispositional risk factors?
Dispositional risk factors relate to individual characteristics, such as impulsivity or psychopathy.
What are clinical risk factors?
Clinical risk factors include substance use and mental disorders that can influence risk levels.
What are contextual risk factors?
Contextual risk factors pertain to the environment, such as access to support, weapons, or potential victims.
What is the importance of understanding base rates in risk assessment?
Understanding base rates helps in accurately interpreting test results and making informed decisions about risk.
Why is it important to consider both static and dynamic risk factors?
Considering both types allows for a comprehensive assessment and targeted interventions that can change over time.
What is the primary concern of a court regarding violence risk?
The court is not necessarily concerned with the long-term approach to lowering the violence risk.
What factors can differ between populations in terms of violence risk?
Base rates of violence, risk factors, protective factors, and risk-relevant interventions.
What are specialized risk assessment tools designed for?
They are designed and validated for specific populations such as juvenile offenders, adult offenders, and sex offenders.
What major considerations should be taken into account when selecting a risk assessment tool?
Population age, gender, behavioral health status, and location.
How is age categorized in risk assessment?
Into three groups: preadolescent children, adolescents, and adults (including older adults).
Why is gender an important consideration in risk assessment tools?
Because tools may not be validated for females or may use different norms based on anatomical sex.
What is a key difference in criminality between genders?
Women engage in less crime and reoffend at lower rates compared to men.
What is a common issue faced by female offenders in terms of risk factors?
Childhood victimization is more prevalent among women.
What are some common mental health issues more prevalent in female offenders?
Mental disorders, self-injury history, and self-esteem problems.
How do risk assessment instruments developed for male offenders perform with female offenders?
The LSI-R has predictive validity for female offenders.
What is a significant consideration for Indigenous offenders in risk assessment?
Best predictors of risk may differ between Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons.
What are the dependent variables in risk assessment?
The frequency of the outcome, probability or category of risk, and the setting where recidivism is most likely.
What is the importance of operational definitions in risk assessment?
Definitional issues matter because incorrect assessments can lead to harm.
What specific behaviors might be included in a risk assessment?
Serious violence, minor aggression, verbal threats, and specific behaviors like sexual reoffending.
What is the significance of the follow-up period in risk assessments?
It determines the timeframe for assessing risk, which can range from 24 hours to several years.
What are the differences in risk of violence in institutional versus community settings?
Institutional settings have greater structure and monitoring, while community settings present more varied circumstances.
What is the role of risk communication in risk assessment?
Effective risk communication is essential to ensure the assessment process is understood and not discounted.
What are risk factors in risk assessment?
Factors associated with increased risk of violence.
What are promotive factors in risk assessment?
Factors associated with an increased likelihood of responsible behavior.
What are protective factors in risk assessment?
Factors associated with a decrease in risk when risk factors are present.
What are the approaches to risk assessment?
Clinical Risk Assessment, Guided Clinical Risk Assessment, Anamnestic Assessment, Actuarial Risk Assessment, and Adjusted Actuarial Risk Assessment.
What does Clinical Assessment involve?
Diagnosis, personality testing, interview data, and psychosocial history, processed idiosyncratically by the clinician.
What is psychometric generalizability in risk assessment?
The ability to apply findings from one population to another, which can be complex when assessing individuals in different settings.
What are the two main sources of information used in clinical assessments?
Empirical literature and clinical experience.
What is a major disadvantage of clinical assessment according to Poythress & Otto (2001)?
Predictive accuracy is near chance, equivalent to flipping a coin.
What is a key feature of Guided Clinical Risk Assessment?
Items are identified a priori based on empirical literature.
What is one advantage of Structured Professional Judgement?
It increases the reliability and validity of assessments.
What is a disadvantage of Structured Professional Judgement?
Error rates remain high, although presumably lower than in unstructured clinical judgment.
What does actuarial assessment use to arrive at a probability of an outcome?
An equation, formula, graph, or actuarial table.
What is a defining aspect of actuarial instruments?
Scores obtained can be related to mass statistical reference data.
What is a significant advantage of actuarial assessment?
It has a known predictive validity and error rates.
What is a limitation of actuarial assessment?
It does not consider case-specific factors.
What does Adjusted Actuarial Risk Assessment allow for?
Consideration of non-equation variables relevant to the case.
What is a potential disadvantage of Adjusted Actuarial Risk Assessment?
It may increase risk due to clinical adjustment.
What is a key caveat regarding risk assessments?
There will always be error in risk assessments due to the complexity of human behavior.
According to Monahan (1981), what can one hope to assign when predicting violence?
A probability figure to the occurrence of violent behavior.
What is a common issue with clinical assessments mentioned in the notes?
Limited reliability and validity.
What is the focus of Anamnestic Assessment?
Identifying risk factors unique to the examinee from their history.
What is a disadvantage of Anamnestic Assessment?
It is a relatively unstructured approach with limited reliability.
What is the main goal of actuarial assessment?
To provide a quantified and mechanistic approach validated through empirical research.
What does the term 'error rate' refer to in the context of clinical assessments?
The likelihood of incorrect predictions made by the assessment method.
What is a potential outcome of using actuarial tools in psychology?
Complete replacement of clinical assessment tools.
What is the role of mental health professionals in actuarial assessment?
To gather and code data for entry into an equation, minimizing their professional judgment.
What does the term 'predictive validity' mean?
The extent to which an assessment accurately predicts future outcomes.
What is a characteristic of the data used in actuarial assessments?
It is often static information.
What is one of the main criticisms of actuarial assessments?
They can be mechanistic and may not consider individual case factors.
What is a benefit of using empirical data in assessments?
It enhances the reliability of predictions.
What is a key difference between clinical and actuarial assessments?
Clinical assessments involve professional judgment, while actuarial assessments rely on empirical data.
What is the significance of using a normative sample in actuarial assessments?
It helps establish the reliability and validity of the assessment.
What does 'clinical adjustment' refer to in Adjusted Actuarial Risk Assessment?
Modifying the actuarial score based on clinical judgment.
What are the three main approaches to risk assessment?
Unstructured Clinical Judgment, Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment
Which risk assessment approach measures risk factors?
Actuarial and Structured Professional Judgment
What does 'risk status' refer to?
Relatively unchanging aspects of violence risk
What does 'risk state' refer to?
Aspects of risk that can change over time
What is the purpose of Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) tools?
To appraise risk needs as well as risk status and estimate changes in risk state
What is the significance of criminogenic interventions in risk assessment?
They can impact whether an individual's risk has changed
What is the Static-99R?
An actuarial risk assessment instrument developed by Hanson & Thornton in 1999
What is the HCR-20?
A structured professional judgment tool that is extremely well researched
What are protective factors in the context of violence risk?
Factors that may explain why some individuals with risk factors do not become violent, such as prosocial involvement and strong social supports