How to Influence Choices: Prediction

What are three factors that influence consumers’ predictions?

1. presentism: we over-rely on our present state of being when predicting how they would feel/behave in another scenario 

2. focalism: we exaggerate the importance of focal events

3. we fail to anticipate adaptation 

List an example of the cost of misprediction

• 40% of US food is wasted each year while… 

  • stems from food losses at each step of the supply chain 

  • ie: production loses in fruits & veg, postharvet handing and storage losses, processing and packaging losses → consumer losses

• 1 in 6 Americans don’t know where their next meal will come from 

What is focalism? Provide an example:

• focalism: we make predictions of happiness based on our reactions to a focal event or attribute without regard to the fact that other things matter aside from that event/attribute

  • we become fixated on what might bring us happiness

• EX1: people tend to think that living in California would make them very happy, but people in California are no happier than people living elsewhere! (equal levels of happiness all around!)

  • why? people focus on the climate difference, but there are other facts that also affect happiness

How might evaluating options together vs. separately lead to focalism? List an example

• joint (together): considering alternatives side-by-side can highlight attributes that are easily comparable and lead people to focus on those attributes

  • this can lad people to exaggerate the importance of these focal attributes relative to when they experience the chose option alone

• if someone chose an option separate (alone).. they would have nothing to compare it to → less likely to engage in vocalism

EX: 

• pepsi beats coke in a side-by-side “sip test” 

• but coke beats Pepsi in “home test” (which better approximates real like) 

• takeaway: focus on evaluating products in the same way you would be experiencing them 

What is presentism? List an Example

• people tend to over-rely on their present state of being when predicting how they would feel of behavior when in a different state of being 

• grocery shopping when you are FULL vs when you are HUNGRY

  • when full → only purchase what you need 

  • when hungry → purchase the whole store, everything that looks good 

What’s a visceral state, and how might it influence how we make judgments? Provide three examples:

• visceral state: a powerful in-the-moment feeling driven by physiological impulses like hunger, thirst, pain, or craving rather than logic

• EX1: HUNGER: hungry shoppers made more unplanned buys and spent more on them → unless they had a shopping list 

  • what much of food waste comes from → unplanned hungry purchases that are then not used → food is discarded 

• EX2: THIRST: “imagine you go hiking with some friends and you get lost in the woods and now you are low on food and water. would it be worse to be hungry or thirsty?”

  • will the answer to this question change if we ask before or after you went to exercise?

  • results: no! → both before and after going to the gym, participants reported finding this more unpleasant and wishing they had water 

• EX3: when your stomach is not feeling well → you are more inclined to purchase every bland food and stomach cure product to help you recover!

  • ie: me in girona when I was unwell with norovirus! 

How does presentism sometimes contribute to variety seeking? Provide two examples:

1. people who just ate an unhealthy snack believe they will want a healthy snack in a week, but they really want an unhealthy snack when they are hungry 

2. people will think that they will want variety when they choose items all at once, but that si only true then they consume items all at once

• people do not like to plan ahead! they like to plan for the moment → people like to bulk purchase for the moment → not to plan ahead 

People often fail to take into account the speed and extent to which they will emotionally adapt to changes in life circumstances. What are some ways in which people mispredict adaptation?

failure to anticipate adaptation

• people fail to anticipate the factors that make them more or less likely to adapt to an event 

  • people adapt more quickly to unchangeable than to changeable choices 

  • people adapt more quickly to uninterrupted than to interrupted experiences 

  • people adapt more quickly to material than to expeirntial purchase 

unchangeable VS changeable

• people want the option to change tier minds, but this makes them less happy with their choices 

  • think! when you are at a restaurant → deciding between two things → get one thing → keep thinking about the other thing

• changeability makes people more likely to second-guess their choices rather than rationalize them

uninterrupted VS interrupted:

• people believe that commercials make them enjoy TV shows less, but it actually makes them enjoy the TV show more (contrast creates clarity!) 

  • people tend to get bored and interruptions disrupt adaptation and slow down boredom

material VS experiential: 

• people believe that they will get more out of material purchases but they actually get more out of experiential

• the value of material items depreciates with repetition and comparison, experiential lives on in your memory and is invaluable

How can you decrease focalism?

1. focus on evaluating products in the same way you will be experiencing them

• pepsi wis in sip tests, but coke wins in home tests that reflect real-life drinking

2. focus on more than just the focal event/attribute → focus on the bigger picture!

• EX: Students at UVA were asked to predict how they would feel after they lost against their rival school

  • predictions were most accurate and less likely to overestimate their reactions \ when students described the events of a typical day before amigo their predictions

  • lesson: focus on the whole picture!

How can marketers guide consumers toward making better judgements towards anticipating adaptation?

guide consumers toward…

• irreversible VS reversible choices (irreversible and no options)

• interrupted VS uninterrupted experiences (interrupted)

• experiential VS material purchases (experiential)

  • it is our monkey mind that wants the possibilities and choices!