First Half Lay the Draw (FH LTD) Trade: Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon

Pre-Match Research:

• League Two match, 11th vs 14th place.

• Barrow showed strong first-half performance at home.

• AFC Wimbledon had not scored a first-half goal away all season.

• Barrow’s attack was stronger than Wimbledon’s defense, but Wimbledon had conceded few early goals.

Market Context:

• FH LTD trade was originally planned based on Barrow’s strong attacking stats.

• Early goal by AFC Wimbledon (2nd minute) changed strategy, requiring adjustments.

Live Stats & Entry Point:

• By the 20-minute mark, Barrow had 22 Dangerous Attacks (DA) and two shots inside the area.

• Expected Goals (xG) data showed decent chances for Barrow, prompting an alternative trade strategy.

Trade Adjustments:

• Instead of FH LTD, laid ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ in the first-half goals market at 1.78 for £25.51 (liability £19.90).

• Laid AFC Wimbledon to lead at half-time at 1.3 with £25.00 stake (liability £7.50).

• Backed Barrow to lead at half-time at 34.0 with £2.50 stake, increasing overall liability to £10.00.

Outcome:

• Barrow equalized on 44 minutes.

• Profit distribution:

  • 0-1 at HT: £29.90 loss

  • 0-2 at HT: £15.00 profit

  • 1-1 at HT: £47.05 profit

  • 2-1 at HT: £130.35 profit

• Final profit: £47.05 (157% ROI)

Key Takeaways:

• Early unexpected goals can shift trade strategy but still offer opportunities.

• Confidence in research allowed for a profitable pivot instead of abandoning the trade.

• Mid-table matches provide better trading angles than games with strong home favorites.