Weather Forecasting Study Guide

True

True or False: Weather forecasting is data intensive?

state-of-the-art computer hardware and software systems that perform millions of calculations (super computers)

Where does the data come from that is used in weather forecasting?

depict the prediction distribution of weather variables as an application of physical laws

What do forecast models do?

Short-term forecasts, local aviation, hydrologic info, Zone forecasts are issued at designated times each day and extend out to a week into the future

What are some of the types of forecasts generated each day?

zone forecast

What is the most familiar type of forecast?

temperature structure of the atmosphere depends on absorption and emission of radiation (K and L), which depends on the vertical and horizontal distribution of atmospheric gases, clouds, water vapor

How is a forecast temperature determined?

1870s

When did weather forecasting begin?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

What does NOAA stand for?

1970s

When was the NOAA established?

forecasts in the 1950s were entirely based on the meteorologist’s experiences and their interpretation on the current conditions

What is the ‘rule of thumb’ style forecasting?

True

True or False: Numerical modeling is now the dominant form of forecasting?

Quantitative forecasts give amounts, an inch of rain, 8-10 inches of snow, Qualitative forecasts provide info based on categories … rain/no rain, sun/clouds

What is the difference between Quantitative and Qualitative forecasts?

by how closely its predictions match actual outcomes

How do you determine if a forecast is accurate?

the WMO collects data from 10,000 land observations, 7000 ship stations and 300 buoys and 1000 weather balloons sent up twice a day

How many data points are collected twice a day from the WMO?

medium term

Within 72 hours is a forecast Short term or Medium term?

an issue that includes sensitive dependence on initial conditions is a serious problem for weather forecasting because the initial conditions are never known exactly

What is chaos and how does it make forecasting difficult?

0000 and 1200 utc

When are weather balloons released?

7:00am and 7:00pm

What time would that be in Freeport?

850, 700, 500, 300, and 200

What are some of the common mb heights for forecast maps?

a wavelength where water vapor is effective

What is the 6.7um mean?

vertical profile of temperature and dew point observations

What is a radiosonde?

thermodynamic diagram

What is a stuve diagram?

developed in the 1950s, combines the average humidity in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere, the predicted max and temp and 500mb temp as a single number, high number equals a likely thunderstorm

What is lifted index and what does it mean when the number is high?

similar to lifted index, works better for predicting air mass thunderstorms and heavy rain but not as good for predicting severe weather

What is K index. What does it measure well? What does is measure poorly.