Essentials of Meteorology Lesson 9 Weather Forecasting

The least accurate forecast method of predicting the weather two days into the future during changeable weather conditions is usually the:

persistence forecasting

Why is knowledge of local effects so important to weather forecasters?

It provides additional guidance with which to make an accurate forecast.

A probability forecast that calls for a "40 percent chance of rain" means that

there is a 40 percent chance that any random place in the forecast area will receive measurable rain

The general area where a severe thunderstorm is likely to form can often be predicted

up to 3 days in advance

A weather watch would probably be issued for which of the following conditions?

there is a chance for tornadoes tomorrow

Which forecasting method assumes that weather systems will move in the same direction and at the same speed as they have been moving?

steady state (like going steady)

A weather forecast for the immediate future that employs the trend method is called

nowcasting

A halo around the sun or moon often indicates

the approach of a warm front

Why are surface and upper-air weather data plotted on maps?

To determine the areal extent of weather systems, and to correlate them to features observed from radar and satellite imagery.

The _____ is a chart that shows how one or more weather variables has changed at a station over a given period of time.

meteogram

A prog is:

(like prognosis)

Final forecast chart representing atmosphere at specified future time.

A forecast of an extended period of dry weather would be made for a region beneath

An upper level ridge.

(ridge = high pressure, good weather stable weather, dry air)

The forecasting of weather by a computer is known as

numerical weather prediction

Why must short-term changes in the barometric pressure be used with caution?

Pressure undergoes a cycle of rises and falls every 12 hours or so.

The inherently chaotic behavior of the atmosphere _____ computer model errors.

increases

Why should a meteorologist check past and present weather observations before making a forecast for a specific location?

All of the above.

What type of forecast is based on the climate of a particular region?

climatological forecast

Which of the following statements is false?

Model output statistics (MOS) are always accurate.

The National Weather Service communication system in use today is known as _____.

AWIPS

(Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System)

Predicting the weather by weather types employs which forecasting method?

Analogue

The steps used by forecasters to steer their attention from large scales to smaller scales and from short time frames to longer periods is called _____.

forecast funnel

A weather warning indicates that:

Hazardous weather is either imminent or occurring with in forecast area.

While trend forecasting (extrapolation) works fairly well in the short term, why does it become less useful for longer forecast periods?

Weather systems do not often remain at constant speeds or development rates.

An overview of how temperatures and precipitation patterns may compare with normal conditions

seasonal outlooks

By examining a surface map, the movement of a surface low pressure area can be predicted based upon the

all of these