Incomplete: general elections & referendums

1979 general election
political context

- followed the Winter of Discontent strikes
- Labour leader James Callaghan faced new Tory leader Margaret Thatcher after
- election called after Callaghan's Govt. lost the vote of no confidence
- election of Thatcher was end of post-war consensus period
- election marked a turn towards populism in the Conservative Party and an evolution in modern campaigning

1979 general election
result

- Tory landslide victory
- 44 seat majority

1979 general election
voting behaviour patterns

- middle class: more likely to vote Conservative
- working class: more likely to vote Labour
- all ages, par 18-24, more likely to vote Conservative
- women slightly more likely to vote Tory than Labour, men equally likely
- no records for BAME voters.

1979 general election
influence of media

- Saatchi & Saatchi advertising agency played key role in Conservative win
- more media focus on leaders than previously (marked beginning of presidential style leadership)
- The Sun newspaper switched from Labour to support Conservatives.
key headline of 'Labour isn't working'
(mass unemployment and poor valence)

1979 general election
impact of party policy and manifesto

- Tory focus: Rejuvenating the economy, lowering unemployment and preventing strike disruption.
- popular initiatives w/ voters were:
Tory tax cuts & Right to Buy scheme (giving council tenants right to buy their house at a heavily discounted price)

1979 general election
impact of campaigns and leadership

- successful 'Labour isn't working' campaign focused on high unemployment and valence issues.
- Thatcher was fairly unknown compared to Callaghan so some found her off-putting and rather just wanted a change from Labour.

1979 general election
impact of election on policy and policy making

- Thatcher's majority allowed her to easily start transforming Britain: privatising industries, reducing union power and strikes, adopting a monetarist economic policy (economic policy that aims to keep inflation low by controlling supply of money) --> (led to unemployment to double by 1983)
- Thatcher's policies became even bolder after landslide of 1983.

1997 general election
political context and result

- Tories had been in power since 1979
- John Major's Govt. was tainted by sleaze, finance and sex scandals.
- Labour landslide
- 179 seat majority
- best post-war result for any party ever
- best ever result for Labour

1997 general election
voting behaviour patterns

- Labour made large gains in middle class voters (mondeo man)
- all ages, par over 65s, more likely to vote Labour
- women and men equally likely to support Labour
- 70% of BAME voters supported Labour, compared to only 43% white voters.

1997 general election
influence of media

- New Labour had proactive approach to the media that was new to UK politics
- Creation Records, using Oasis.
- Blair personally flew to Australia to successfully convince Robert Murdoch, owner of The Sun, to support him.
- Spin doctors were employed to keep Labour's interactions w/ the media 'on message'
- Tory weak defence campaign 'New Labour, New Danger'

1997 general election
impact of party policies and manifesto

- Labour had centrist economic policies
- The Third Way of Labour (centre-right economics w/ centre-left social justice) designed to appeal to broad range of voters.
- key 5 Labour pledges showed dedication and key change in tact:
1) cut class sizes 2) introduce fast-track punishment for persistent young-offenders 3) cut NHS waiting lists hugely 4) get large numbers of under-25yr olds into work 5) not raise basic income tax
- Tories were still internally divided over Europe and criticised Blair's devolution policies --> did not impress electorate.

1997 general election
impact of campaigns and leadership

- negative campaigning directed at Labour 'New Labour, New Danger'
- whereas Labour slogan promised change 'Because Britain deserves Better'
- Campaigns focused on party leaders where Blair's charisma could flourish.
- At 43, Blair was youngest PM candidate since 1812 and lacked experience BUT charismatic and enthusiastic persona was greatly appealing to those disillusioned from shameful political scene
- To distinguish New Labour from Old, Blair's 1995 amendment of Clause IV in Labour's constitution (that committed Labour to widespread nationalisation) to remove references to socialist economic policy helped pull voters who were sceptical of Labour's ability to protect economy.

1997 general election
impact of election on policy and policy-making

Blair's huge majority allowed him to implement a wide range of popular policies, including:
- devolution
- removal of all but 92 hereditary peers from HofL
- passing of Human Rights Act 1998
- passing of Freedom of Information Act 2000
- introduction of national minimum wage
- increased public spending

2019 general election
political context

- Boris Johnson had been PM since July 2019 and called snap election for December to get fresh mandate for Brexit.
- Tories were deeply divided minority Govt. Theresa May had resigned after failing to unite Parliament behind her Brexit deal.
--> Johnson faced same problem.
- to break the impassé and trigger early election - Johnson convinced Parliament to pass the Early Parliament General Election Act 2019 (to surpass Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011)
- The previous 3 elections were very close (2010,2015,2017) so ppl expected the same.

2019 general election
result

- overwhelmingly tory victory: 80 seat majority, taking 54 from Labour
- Labour's worst election result since 1935, forcing resignation of leader Jeremy Corbyn.
- regional parties continued to perform well (motivated by Brexit) (SNP won 48 seats in Scotland)(Sinn Féin and DUP dominated in NI)

2019 general election
voting behaviour patterns

- older people (over 39, homeowners and all social classes more likely to vote Tory.
- younger people, BAME groups, home renters and those w/ a degree or higher level of education more likely to vote Labour.
- Tories broke Labour's 'red wall' - won 24 previously Labour safe seats in Midlands, North and Wales.

2019 general election
influence of media

- right-wing newspapers (The Sun, Daily Mail) supported Tories.
- social media spending was concentrated on Youtube and Facebook. Labour outspent Tories £4 million to £900k, explaining the Labour success w/ younger voters.
- Johnson criticised for avoiding live confrontational-style interviews (EG: interview w/ broadcaster Andrew Neil)(EG: climate change debate on Channel 4)
- Tories and Labour managed to exclude other main parties from television leadership debates in order to emphasise idea of a 2-horse race and reduce voting for other parties.

2019 general election
impact of party policies and manifestos

- Tory hard-line focus of achieving Brexit 'no matter what' was highly popular after 3 years of gridlock. They promised: 50,000 new nurses; money for social care; police funding increase; not raising income tax, VAT or national insurance, pledge to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
- Labour offered less clear Brexit position: a renegotiated deal w/ 2nd referendum. Other policies incl: increased spending on NHS, rise in national minimum wage, pledging UK carbon neutrality by 2030.
- LibDem promised to rejoin EU w/o 2nd referendum - highly undemocratic rejection of referendum --> Jo Swinson leader lost her seat.

2019 general election
impact of campaigns and leadership

- Johnson's relentless repetition of 'Get Brexit done' was highly effective, populist policies helped him to extend his appeal to 'red wall' working class voters.
- Corbyn's leadership was seen as a weakness and lacked appeal to working class voters. Accusations of anti-semitism hurt his image greatly and furthered the 'messy, unclear' image of Labour.
- Labour's Brexit position was highly criticised: torn between Leave-voting 'red-wall' voters and Remain-voting London voters - impossible to satisfy both.

2019 general election
impact of election on policy and policy making

- Johnson fulfilled promised of getting Brexit done. 31st January 2020 (election was December)
- he began a 'levelling up' agenda to try to retain former Labour seats. Govt. promised: reduce economic inequalities across UK through investment in the North & increasing skills through apprenticeships.
- 2020 pandemic transformed Govt. policy to reactionary, forcing: highest levels of borrowing since WWII, a furlough scheme, introduction of national restrictions and 3 periods of enforced lockdown.
- Johnson's healthy majority allowed him to ignore calls for emergency coalition Govt.

UK European Communities Membership referendum 1975
context
result
impact

Labour PM Harold Wilson called it bc his party was greatly internally divided over Europe.
67% of electorate: stay in ECC
64% turnout
Britain stayed in the EEC which later turned into EU.

Scottish & Welsh devolution 1979 & 1979 referendums
context
result
impact

growing calls for devolution

Scotland voted to have its own assembly but did not reach 40% of total electorate voting threshold (33%)
Wales voted against an assembly.

Devolution did not happen.
Many Scottish nationalists were greatly frustrated.

Scottish & Welsh devolution 1997 & 1997 referendums
context
result
impact

Blair used these to legitimise constitutional changes.
Introduced Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly.

Scotland: yes '74%' no '25%' turnout: 60%
Wales: yes 50.3% no 49.7% turnout 50%

Devolved powers set up.

UK Alternative Vote referendum 2011
context
result
impact

coalition agreement included referendum on AV as a compromise: Tories did not want it, LibDems wanted proportional representation.
Public didn't understand complexities of AV.
Campaigns failed to inspire apathetic voters.

68% vote to keep FPTP
42% turnout

FPTP still used now
Rejection of AV and low turnout has settled the issue for years to come

Scottish independence referendum 2014
context
result
impact

PM David Cameron criticised by some Tories for risking the break-up of the UK.
---> Cameron argued he had no choice: SNP won majority in 2011 Scottish Parliament elections w/ independence referendum in their manifesto.
SNP campaigned: 'Yes Scotland', LibDems, Tories and Labour: 'Better Together'.

55% Remain
Record 85% turnout
Campaigns saw huge political participation across Scotland.
16&17 yr olds allowed to vote.

Scotland remained in UK.
Following 2016 EU referndum (Scotland voted to Remain), the Scottish Govt. led by Nicola Sturgeon, psuehd for 2nd referndum.
After losing seats in 2017 election, Sturgeon decided to wait until post-Brexit to campaign for second indepeendecne referendum. as the focus may have weakened the party's seat share.

Greater London Authority 1998
context
result
impact

part of Blair's devolution initiative

72% yes
low 34% turnout = poor mandate

London gained its own assembly anyway and directly elected mayor.

NI Good Friday Agreement 1998
context
result
impact

Landmark moment in UK history
Ppl of NI asked their support for the peace agreement that would end the troubles and give NI a Parliament to do so.
71% supported treaty
high 81% turnout = crucial legitimacy

devolved assembly established.
a power-sharing agreement between the unionists and nationalists gave both a role in Govt.
STV is used to ensure sensitive mix of political opinion is reflected proportionally in Govt.

NE England devolution
context
result
impact

Blair's Govt. plan to extend devolution to UK regions w/ regional assemblies
NE England was first to be assessed/asked.

78% of NE electorate rejected the plan.
Low 48% turnout = issue did not have public interest nor enthusiasm

Govt. was surprised.
Ended Labour's plans for English regional assemblies. (Cornwallese might still take issue with this)

Welsh devolution referendum 2011
context
result
impact

Welsh Labour & Plaid Cymru both wanted to extend Wales' law-making powers.

Wales voted: yes 63% but low 36% turnout

Wales received full primary law-making powers over certain areas of governance.

UK EU membership referendum 2016
context
result
impact

in 2015 manifesto, Tories pledged to hold an EU referendum. Cameron included this promise to stop Tory voters switching to UKIP and to placate Eurosceptics in his party.
- campaigns were cross-party (Johnson & Michael Gove headed 'Vote Leave' campaign w/ Labour MP Gisuela Stuart.
- Cameron and most Govt. ministers w/ lots of Labour and all LibDems to 'Remain'
--> Leave campaigns were criticised for inaccurate claims
--> Remain campaigns focused on economic risks and failed to provide convincing reasons to stay.

52% Leave
48% Remain
Turnout: 72%

Cameron resigned: had taken a major political gamble and failed.
T. May followed as PM but failed to navigate Brexit deal through Parliament w/ minority Govt.
Revealed massive divide in British public.
Referendum result put Parliament at odds with desire of the electorate (most of Parliament wanted to Remain).
2017: MPs voted to begin EU leaving process but couldn't agree on a deal, even after Johnson's assumption to PM.
2019 election gave Johnson clear mandate and majority needed to leave EU. UK left EU on 31st January 2020.