2531: Russia, Ukraine, and NATO

What was the Russian Revolution?

• Lenin and the Bolsheviks overthrow the Czar.

• Creates the World’s first Socialist State.

• Prompted revolution in neighboring countries.

• In 1992 the Union of Soviet Socialist Republicans (USSR or SU) was created.

What happened to the USSR in World War 2?

• 1941 Hitler attacked the Soviet Union to open the Eastern Front.

• The USSR under Stalin became one of the Allies

• Allies conquer and meet in the middle to divide Berlin and Germany into West and East.

What was the Cold War 1945-1992?

• The West- East relations deteriorate

• US: NATO vs USSR: Warsaw Pact (USSR + Eastern Europe)

• A battle between Democratic Capitalism and Authoritarian Communism

• Nuclear deterrence and Proxy Wars in many Global South countries (ex. Korea, Vietnam).

• War was COLD because, spies, proxy etc.

What was the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis?

• Begins when a US spy plane detects nuclear missile sites in Cuba

• President Kennedy demands for the sites to be removed and sets up a Naval blockade.

• Soviet ships approached in a game of “chicken” for 13 days.

• Soviets turned back and a deal was reached.

What happened at the End of the Cold War 1989-1991?

• The collapse of communism

• 1989 the fall of the Berlin wall

• 1989-1991, a Break-up of the USSR into Russia, Ukraine and other Republics

  • The End of the Warsaw Pact.

How did U.S Dominance happen in 1991-2000s?

• Collapse of the USSR left the US as a sole superpower- UNIPLOAR MOMENT

• Collapse of Communism meant the spread of Capitalism

• NATO expands eastwards

• European Union Expands.

What was the Budapest Memorandum in 1994?

• 3 formerly USSR countries gave up their nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees.

  • Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan

• Russia agreed to not attack while the US, France the UK agreed to defend.

Who is Vladamir Putin?

• Former KGB officer.

• President since 2000

• Established an Authoritarian government that cracks down on opposition, dissent, and media.

• Economy is based on state capitalism corruption and oil.

What are Putin’s Goals?

• Return Russia to a Great Power status.

• Use nationalist and Foreign Policy to distract the people from domestic issues.

• Restore influence in the post Soviet States

• Create division in NATO, EU and the West.

What was the 2008 Russia-Georgia War?

• in 2003 the former Soviet State elects a pro-Western government and relations with Russia deteriorate.

• Russia accuses Georgia of committing genocide against Russians in 2 provinces

• Russia invades and annexes.

Ukraine from 2010 to 2013

• President Yanukovych is pro Russia.

• Rejects the European Union- Ukraine Association Agreement and pursues closer ties with Russia.

• Massive protests leads to replacement with a pro-Western president.

What happened to Ukraine in 2014?

• Russia saw the ousting of the pro-Russian President as a coup by the West.

• Ethnic Russian in Crimea and Eastern Provinces protest the new government, demand independence.

• Russia annexes Crimea

What happened to Ukraine in 2022?

• Russia invades Ukraine including Kyiv

• NATO implements economic sanctions

• NATO supplied weapons and Ukraine pushed Russia out

• Putin annexes Eastern provinces, Ukraine counter-attacks

What is Ukraine like Today?

• War, stalemate for the past year

• Russia received drones from Iran, ammo/troops from North Korea

• Russia holds Crimean and some Eastern Provinces

• Ukraine has a small amount of Russian territory.

Trump has pushed for Peace Negotiations: What are the 3 Key Issues at play?

1. Territorial Concessions

2. Security Guarantees for Ukraine

3. US Wants a Critical Mineral Deal

Why is Territorial Concessions a key issue?

• Russia wants to keep at least some of the territory and have it formally recognized as Russian.

• Ukraine wants to either keep the territory or not have it formally recognized.

Why are Security Guarantees for Ukraine a Key issue?

• Wants NATO membership to prevent future attacks

• May have to accept lesser guarantees, ex. Heavier weapons provided by NATO.

• Russia wants Ukraine to be declared “neutral”: could lead to future attacks.

Why is U.S wanting the Critical Mineral Deal a Key issue?

• Trump wants the U.S to help develop Ukraine’s critical and rare earth minerals.

• U.S would get large share of proceeds as “repayment”

• Ukraine wants security guarantees in exchange.

• Contentious Meeting:

  • Zelensky wouldn’t sign without security guarantees, US pauses military aid and intelligence sharing.

What is the Liberal Internationalist stance on Ukraine?

• strong support for Ukraine

• Biden took “incremental” approach to providing weapons to test Russia’s response.

What is the Neoconservative stance on Ukraine?

• Strong support for Ukraine

• Criticized incremental approach, wanted more weapons faster.

What is the Realist stance on Ukraine?

• Argued that the crisis is the West’s fault because of NATO and EU expansion.

• Opposed military aid as would never work or could risk a nuclear war.

What is the Conservative Nationalist stance on Ukraine?

• Sympathetic to Putin and opposed Ukraine aid.

• Isolationism: “America First,: Ukraine is not a vital interest.

• Pro Putin because he is seen as a strong nationalist leader.

Reading Mearsheimer: What is the author’s overall argument?

• Argues that the US and European allies are primarily responsible for the Ukraine crisis. (Realist) 

• Contends that the West’s attempt to pull Ukraine into its sphere through NATO and EU expansion threatened Russia’s vital strategic interests. 

Reading Mearsheimer: What is NATO enlargement, EU expansion, and how has Russia viewed them? 

• NATO: the expansion of the military alliance eastward, bringing former Eastern Bloc countries. 

• EU: economic and political integration of Eastern European countries through initiatives like Eastern Partnership. 

• Russia views both as existential threats and part of a Western strategy 

Reading Mearsheimer: What are the events in Ukraine that sparked the 2014 invasion of Crimea?

• Immediate Trigger: 

• November 2013: Ukraine President rejected EU deal and accepted a Russian one- sparked large anti-government protests. 

• February 2014: Violent clashes from the protest. President fled to Russia, and a new Western-leaning government took over Kyiv. 

• Putin saw this as a Western-backed coup and responded by annexing Crimea and supporting Ukraine separatists.  

Reading Mearsheimer: Why does Putin care about Ukraine? 

• Sees Ukraine as: 

  • Strategic buffer zone against NATO

  • Part of Russia’s historical and cultural sphere. 

  • Zone where Western influence poses a direct threat to Russia’s national security. 

Reading Mearsheimer: What are the liberal vs (most) realist views on NATO enlargement? 

• Liberals believe NATO enlargement promotes: 

  • Democracy 

  • Peace through institutions 

  • Economic interdependence 

  • They argue the Cold War is over and Russia should not feel threatened. 

• Most realists, including Mearsheimer, argue: 

  • Its geopolitical provocation. 

  • Russia, reacts defensively to encroachment. 

  • Expansion ignored power politics. 

Reading Mearsheimer: What is Mearsheimer’s view on any sanctions against Russia? 

• Sanctions have little effect: 

  • Russia will endure economic pain to protect core interests. 

  • Harsh sanctions are unlikely due to European economic dependency. 

  • History shows great powers rarely change course when defending core interests. 

Reading Mearsheimer: What is Mearsheimer’s solution to the 2014 crisis and what is his view on admitting Ukraine into NATO? 

• Solution:

  • Make Ukraine a neutral buffer state, like Austria. 

  • Abandon the goal of Westernizing Ukraine. 

  • Publicly rule out NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. 

  • Create a joint economic aid package including EU, US, Russia and IMF.  

• Sees admitting Ukraine as dangerous and unnecessary. 

Reading Kagan: What is the author’s overall argument? 

• Argues that the defense of Ukraine is about more than territory or security- it is about defending the liberal world order. 

• Contends that the US' FP must embrace its historic role as the defender of liberalism. 

• Rejects realist ideas. 

Reading Kagan: On what foreign policy approach does the author reflect?

• Reflects on liberal internationalism and neoconservative approaches. 

• They support active U.S global engagement to defend liberalism. 

• Contrasts with realist restraint. 

Reading Kagan: What are the two broad views the US has oscillated between? 

• Isolationist/ Realist Restraint: Focused on homeland security, avoiding foreign entanglements, and preserving U.S sovereignty. 

• Liberal Internationalism: Advocates for defending the liberal world order, even when U.S territory isn’t directly threatened. 

• Traces if back to WW1 and WW2

Reading Kagan: Which foreign policy approach does the author criticize?

• Criticises the realist approach, especially its narrow focus on security and material interests. 

• Argues that realists ignore ideological and moral dimensions of global conflict. 

• Great powers often act out of honor, pride, and belief, not just rational security concerns. 

Reading Kagan: How has the decline of the British led liberal order in WWI pushed the US towards internationalism?

• The British naval dominance and European balance collapsed in WW1

• Liberal democracy abroad was threatened by rising authoritarian powers. 

• The U.S who had been a free rider in the liberal order, was forced to intervene to preserve. 

Reading Kagan:  Finish the sentence: for the author “the defense of Ukraine is a defense of the...”? 

• Liberal Hegemony

• Supporting Ukraine is not about direct U.S security interests but about preserving the liberal international order. 

Reading Kagan: What does the author’s view on whether China and Russia behave as realists suggest based on pure security interests? 

• Kagan argues that neither China nor Russia behaves like rational realist actors. 

• Putin’s invasion reduced Russia’s security and was motivated by pride, resentment, and desire for historical legacy, not strategic logic. 

• China’s stance on Taiwan increases the chance of catastrophic war and is driven by nationalism and regime insecurity not material threat. 

• Realist theories fail to explain how these autocracies act. 

Reading Hounshell and Askarinam: Which party is the article about?

• The Republican Party and its internal divide over FP. 

Reading Hounshell and Askarinam: What foreign policy approaches does the article discuss?

• “America First” isolationism: Skeptical of foreign entanglements and opposed to the US in Ukraine. 

• Traditional Hawkish Interventionism: Supportive of defending Ukraine, maintaining global U.S leadership, applying pressure on Russia. 

Reading Hounshell and Askarinam: What is the position of JD Vance?

• America First isolationist wing. 

Reading Hounshell and Askarinam: What is the position of Jane Timkin?

• Traditional Republican FP

• Support Ukraine’s sovereignty

• Calls for sanctions on Russia 

• Blames Biden for “weak and feckless leadership” 

Reading Hounshell and Askarinam: Tucker Carlson – which is he and what is his view on Ukraine? 

• America first isolationist and argues that:

  • Ukraine is of no importance to the U.S

  • Ukraine’s government is corrupt 

  • Russia is not America’s enemy. 

Reading Hounshell and Askarinam: If Ukraine-Russia divides Republicans, what are the two issues mentioned that unite them?

2 issues that unite them are: 

1. Opposition to President Biden, especially criticising his handling of FP (afghanistan withdrawal)

2. Hostility toward China, is blamed for: 

   • Covid 

   • Job losses in US manufacturing 

   • Tech theft, fentanyl trafficking, land purchase in America