Geo Core 6: Global Risks and Resilience

Hacking - Wannacry Ransomware Attack

:deliberately exploiting weaknesses online to gain data/unauthorised access

• May 2017

• Use of cryptoworm to target Microsoft computers demanding ransom payments

• Affected more than 200,000 computers across 150 countries

• BELIEVED to have originated from N. Korea

BRITISH NHS

• Hospitals were directly affected, less emergency and elective admissions

• 6% decrease in daily admissions, 4% less emergency admissions

• £5.9 mil lost

IMPACT

• Individuals

  • People could not access personal health records

  • Over 19,000 appointments cancelled

  • Emergency depts at 5 major UK hospitals shut down

• Societies

  • Reduced patient admissions

  • £150mil investment in cyber security afterwards

  • £5.9mil lost

Identity Theft - Abraham Abdallah

• 2001 Abdallah based in Brooklyn

• Targeted over 200 high profile victims (including Steven Spielberg, Oprah)

• Done by tricking credit card companies to give personal info through forged stationary

• Attempted $10bil transfer to an Australian company

GLOBALISATION

• Exploited tech, courier services and digital communications

IMPACTS

• Individuals: faced financial losses to recover stolen identities

• Societies: damage to credit reputations, undermines integrity and reliability of financial systems

Tax Avoidance - Starbucks UK

:legal way to bend rules to reduce tax amount

• From 1998 until 2012, they have only paid £10mil tax, despite £3bil profit

• Tax avoidance done through:

1. Sell coffee in the UK - low royalty fees from branding, UK Sbucks pays Netherlands Sbucks with low tax rates

2. Sbucks Switzerland buys coffee beans and sells to other branches - Switz. Has a low tax rate so profit is shifted away from places like UK with a high taxa rate

3. Sbucks UK borrows money from Sbucks US - UK pays US on loan (interest), and this interest reduces UK’s profit

THREAT:

• Economic sovereignty comprised, TNCs have more power, and govts. Don’t have enough tax to aid development of infrastructure and services

• Decreases national resilience

Tax Haven/Profit Repatriation - Apple in Ireland

:sending profits elsewhere with lower/no tax agreements

• 8% world’s wealth is stored in offshore tax havens

APPLE IRELAND

• All profit from Apple stores (outside of US) are sent to Ireland as there are low 12.5% tax rates 

• This means that less tax is payed 

• Ireland and Apple have a deal where less than 0.1% tax is paid as a headquarters is set up in Ireland

• 2016 European commission deemed this as illegal and instructed Apple to give Ireland $13bil in tax, but Ireland refused

→ thought this would hurt their public image of being a tax haven

THREAT:

• Political power of TNCs over countries

Tax Avoidance - Pandora Papers

• 2021 Pandora Papers leaked

• 12mil documents leaked exposing tax avoidance and money laundering 

  • Qatar ruling family avoided £18.5mil by buying offshore properties

• Revealed 29,000 offshore shell companies 

• Threat to state sovereignty as people are not paying tax

Supply Chain Risk - Apple US China Trade War

• Valued at $3.5 tril

• 615 factories globally, 156 in China

• 95% of their products assembled in China

• 10-25% tariffs imported by Trump

• Apple paid $5.3bil in tariffs

• China boycotts → 2021 Xinjiang backlash (produces aluminium, metals and cottons) towards Western brands → companies stayed away from Xinjiang sourced materials due to forced labour of Muslim minorities

  • China Apple sales dipped 5% that year as a result

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

• China +1 strategy: aims to balance reliance on China with other countries 

  • India iPhone production rose by 13% in past 8 years

  • 20% Airpods and Macs now assembled in Vietnam

Supply Chain Risks - Tohoku 2011

• 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami highlighted overexposure of TNCs globally to environmental supply chain risks

• Major TBP (transboundary pollution) event due to Fukushima meltdown

IMPACTS ON CAR MANUFACTURING 

• Honda, Toyota, Nissan worst hit (Japanese brands) → Toyota recorded $12.2 bil in losses

• Foreign car companies that depended on Japanese sourced paint were affected (Ford, Chrysler)

IMPACT ON TECH

• Japan as world leader in precision machinery parts (100% production of LED polarising film)

• World leader in IT component supply (sourced 40%)

  • HP lost $700mil as a result

IMPACT ON AIR TRAVEL

• 28% drop in intl. travel

• All airports temporarily shut down → operating losses for airlines

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

• earthquake proofing and relocation of water + chemical plants on higher ground

• METI (ministry of economy, trade, and industry) Japan subsidised critical post event construction.

Disruptive Technologies - 3D Printing

:tech that brings changes to the way of life - poses threat to sovereignity

• Fundamentally alters traditional manufacturing approach

• Dubbed the 3rd industrial revolution

• Eliminates large scale assembly plans

THREATS:

• Producing copyrighted products

• Supply chain unemployment

• Printing of weapons

• Intellectual property rights

:rights that individuals/companies have over individual ideas, processes, patent, trademark

SOVEREIGNTY

• Flow of counterfeits

• Dubai hoping to print 1/4buildings by 2030

BUT

• Can make prosthetics cheaper and more easily avail

• Localises production - reducts CO2 emissions

Disruptive Tech - Drones

INTERNAL STATE THREATS

• Infringement of people’s rights and liberties

• Media outlets flying drones over people’s property in Europe

• Use of drones in police force to track crimes in USA
  
  

EXTERNAL STATE THREATS

• Drones used by US + UK air force to carry out attacks in Pakistan, Syria, Afghanistan

• Can lead to surveillance of local groups

• Carries out precision strikes better

  • However, ends up killing more innocent people than just terrorists, 80% killed are innocent civilians who just happen to be nearby

PROS of DRONE USE

• US use of drones in agriculture, identify problem areas and spray pesticides there, reducing pesticide use by 95%

• Kenya conservation drones - thermal cameras to detect poachers at night

• Zipline Drone Company -  drones for medical assistance

  • 2016 Rwanda blood deliveries launched 5-7mins after order is received, flight times only 15-30mins

Transboundary Pollution - Indonesia Smoke Haze

• Oct 2015

• Caused by forest and peatland fires to clear land for palm oil plantations+agriculture

• Exacerbated by El Niño weather events

• Affected Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand

IMPACTS
Social:

• 100,000 died, 500,000 affected - 90% of these were in Indonesia

• Sg+Malaysia schools closed for weeks

• People discouraged from leaving home

Economic:

• $15bil loss for Indonesian govt (1.9% GDP)

• $1.83bil loss for Singapore (0.45% GDP)

• Flights halted for a month

Environmental

• 2bil tonnes CO2 released

• 2.6mil hectares of land burned

Political:

• Diplomatic tensions between neighbouring countries

FACTORS AFFECTING THE FIRES

Human:

• Palm oil demand, Indonesia economic pressures to boost GDP - 89% palm oil from Indonesia+Malaysia

• Reluctance to set policies for economic growth

Physical:

• Dry El Nino events

• Climate change - natural dry season is May-Oct, but CC is extending this

RESPONSES
Immediate:

• Indonesia deployed 20,000 security forces to water bomb fields

• Cloud seeding efforts by Indonesia to induce rain

• Malaysia intensely cloud seeded for 10 days after

• National Disaster Mgmt Agency led communication

• Malay/SG shut down schools

• N95 marks distributed to vulnerable groups

Long term:

• Wilmar (palm oil) and APP (timber) firms signed 0 deforestation pledge - has not been followed

• Indonesia moratorium on new peatland development 

• 2016-2020 ASEAN have free roadmap to monitor, prevent, education

Env Impacts of Globalisation - HK

• Ships handle 90% global trade → essential to global economy

• Shipping contributes 3% total GHG emissions - if this was a country’s worth, it could be 6th largest emitter of GHGs

HK

• The largest source of HK airborne pollution is ships

• Photochemical smog from VOCs and NOx

  • Releases PM2.5, PM10

• HK has the 8th busiest port (5 of top 6 busiest ports are in China)

• 42% HK PM2.5 emissions from trade

MGMT

• 2013 emission targets for maritime industry in Pearl River Delta Region (PRD)

• 2015 Air Pollution Control Regulation - limited sulfur content in fuels, cannot exceed 0.5% - targets an overall 60% reduction in SO2

• 2019 all vessels in PRD Domestic Emission Control Area are required to use low sulfur fuel - $200,000 penalty if not abiding

BUT 

• Tension between economic benefit and environmental cost

• Intl. Maritime Organisation believe that it should not only be implemented in PRD DECA, but everywhere

Global Shift in Industry - Bangladesh Textile

• One of the world’s leading apparel exporters

• Textile exports reached $38bil in 2024

• 2.9mil tonnes of fabric produced

• Wastewater generation increased by 50% since 2021

• Generated 349mil L of wastewater

• Caused by systemic failure of industrial waste mgmt

IMPACTS

• Local dead zones in Bangladesh river systems

  • Over 200 rivers polluted by lead + chlorine - destroys aquatic life

• TBP - toxins flow into Bay of Bengal

• Reliance on groundwater for production - depletion of groundwater reserves

  • Dhaka groundwater levels lower by 2-3m/year - 40% Bangladesh pop. without access to water

MGMT

• Difficult as there are two extents

  • Global leader with 270+ LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) factories

  • BUT thousands of small/medium sized enterprises where factories pay ‘informal’ fees and do not operate globally

Global Shift in Industry - China

• 1978 Open Door policy led to manufacturing/economic development 

• 2026 China’s env transition is no longer a ‘cleanup’ but shift in manufacturing

POLLUTION

• World's largest GHG emitter - 30% global GHGs

• Air pollution from factories and vehicular emissions cause 2mil deaths/yr due to respiratory diseases

• 40% surface water in Beijing deemed unsafe due to illegal chemical waste dumping

• Soil contamination - 16% of land surveyed exceeded soil quality standards with heavy metals like lead, cadmium, arsenic

MGMT

• China 5 year plan to reshape global trade

  • BUT as factories close, there is a ‘pollution export’ to LICs like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia

• Transition from ‘world’s factory’ to ‘world’s laboratory’, controlling over 80% solar module supply globally

EWASTE

• CHina imports 70% global ewaste - 20-50mil tonnes/yr

• Guiyu Guangdong, largest ewaste site, 80% in ewaste business, highest concentration of cancer causing toxins

IMPACTS

• Acid and toxin leaching

• Guiyu pollution 62µg/m³ pollution when WHO rec is 10µg/m³

MGMT

• China 2018 ban on ewaste pushed flows to LICs

• Forced countries like UK that historically sent ⅔ of ewaste to adapt circular economy practices

Tribalisation - Iraq

:loyalty to tribe/group

• Increase in globalisation and loss of national identity has led to recent resurgence of national/subnational identities

CONTEXT

• Central Iraq govt. The regime collapsed 2003, national identity collapsed with it

• Post 2003, police and army were disbanded, tribes served as protection against militia groups

• Some courts even resorted to tribal law as state courts were too slow and corrupt

ISIS LINK

• ISIS deemed as a ‘shield’ for some tribal groups

• Integrated tribal youth by capitalising from govt. downfall - offered basic necessities like food, water, electricity that were not available because of lack of govt. structure, in exchange for youth to join

• Encouraged defying tribes in place of global identity

GLOBALISATION

• ISIS used social media to recruit a global community

• Using English magazines to recruit young Muslims in EU

• France had 1800 nationals joining, Germany 1000

• Transboundary risk of the rise of terrorist groups

Post ISIS 150 tribal groups, representing 75% of pop, pre ISIS this was only around 30 distinct tribal federations → opposing global communities for fear of safety

Resource Nationalism - Venezuela

• Exerting control over natural resources like oil (oil accounts for 95% Venezuela's export revenue)

1976-1990: oil first ‘nationalised’ but opened foreign investment and companies to increase production

• These foreign markets eg. PDVSA (Venezuela state owned), BP, Chevron repatriated profit, harming Venezuela’s economy

2001: reversed this through the Hydrocarbon law to promote nationalism and increase government/state ownership - economic sovereignty

SUBSIDIES:

• Oil heavily subsidised, costing as little as $0.01/liter (cheaper than water) to make it widely available domestically 

IMPACTS

• Economic: funded programmes from oil revenues (over 17% GDP), funding healthcare/education

  • Bolivian Mission social programme in the 2000s for free healthcare and educational support/scholarships

• Political: strengthened national sovereignty

• Env: ongoing oil spills in Orinoco highlights overconsumption and inefficiency

ISSUES

• Overdependence - 2014 oil price crash by 50% led to decrease in revenues

• Long term sustainability of oil usage and need

Agribusiness - Indonesia Palm Oil

• Most consumed veg oil globally

• Found in 50% supermarket products

• Produces 10x more oil per hectare than alternatives (high efficiency)

• Global demand increase due to NGMC increase

INDONESIA

• Produces 60% global palm oil

• Contributes 5% GDP

ISSUES

ENV:

• 31,000 ha of land cleared for palm oil

• Peatland drainage accounts for 92% emissions in palm oil sector - link to 2015 smoke haze

• Habitat fragmentation

  • Threatens orangutans, sumatran tiger

SOCIAL:

• 500 active land disputes between community and TNCs

• TNCs taking over local land

• Displacement of indigenous communities

MGMT

• development of ISPO (Indonesia Sustainable palm Oil) agreement to legally manage industry

• Through approving seeds and management, banning slash and burn, indigenous land rights, no child labour

Agribusiness - Cattle Ranching Brazil

• 7.2% annual meat growth

• Growth of NGMC

• 8x more land used for cattle then people

• Cows release methane and nitrous oxides

BRAZIL

• Cattle ranching accounts for 70% forest loss

• Brazil accounts for 28% global beef exports

THREATS

• 78% commodity attributed deforestation from cattle ranching

• Large land use, but not efficient, only accounts for 17% of AGRICULTURAL GDP

• Contributes 3.4% total emissions in Amazon

• Releases 1.2bil tonnes of CO2/yr

• 54% soil is degraded 

MANAGEMENT

• PPCDDAM (Action Plan for Prevention and Control of Deforestation)

  • Legislative framework

  • Govt using satellite data/technology tracking to identify illegal deforestation/activity

  • Nationalising illegal land

• Amazon fund - countries must pay Brazil to trade/pay for remission reduction, funding satellite tech and environmental policy

Civil Society - Greenpeace Save the Arctic Campaign

• Founded in 1971 to combat and raise awareness about environmental issues to spark change

ISSUE

• Arctic warming 2x faster than global average

• 600mil people live in low elevation coastal areas less than 10m above sea level face risks of flooding and displacement 

LEGO x SHELL

• Lego in partnership with Shell (oil company) using petroleum for Lego bricks

• 2012 - Greenpeace created a campaign and video ad “Everything is not awesome" to raise awareness, being their most watched campaign with 9m views on Youtube 

• 2014, Lego broke off their ties with Shell and vow to make their blocks out of renewable materials by 2032

• 2016 Shell announced they would stop oil exploration and protection in Alaska’s Chukchi sea  - 75% chance of oil spill if they continued operating there 

GAZPROM - RUSSIA

• Greenpeace targeted Russian energy provider gazprom

• 2013 peaceful protests outside new oil rig resulted in the arrest of 30 members (dubbed the Arctic 30)

• However oil rig is still functioning 

SEISMIC DRILLING - CANADA

• Greenpeace won legal battle to stop seismic blasting in Canada to protect Clyde river residents and animals 

CURRENT

• 2015 Obama passed law to ban new oil drilling in US waters

• 2023 Biden approved $8bil Willow Project (oil drilling project) in Alaska 

• 2025 Trump reopened Arctic drilling, restoring oil leasing rights in Alaska 

CHALLENGES

• Arctic is dominated by 5 countries (Denmark, Canada, US, Russia, Norway) which depends on oil drilling for economic power

Civil Society - Amnesty Intl and Boko Haram

• Global independent campaigning organisation to raise awareness and provide solutions to abuse of human rights 

BOKO HARAM

• Aims to establish Islamic state under Shariah law done through violence, intimidation, governance

2014: 276 Christian schoolgirls kidnapped

2018: 2 bombings, 86 killed

2020: 30 killed in armed attack

AMNESTY:

• Carried out official investigation to kidnapped children in cells, mainly in Giwa

• Showed 12 children who died in the cells

• Published a report in May 2016 to reveal the situation of people in captivity, confirming deaths and living conditions

RESPONSE:

• Nigerian president said they would thoroughly investigate the Giwa facility but they did not do this, and still has not been an investigation

• Amnesty figured out that since this claim, 15 babies and toddlers have already died in the facilities

Reshoring - Apple Macbook Pro

• 2013

• Invested $100mil for it to be assembled in Texas with US made components

CAUSE

• Driving costs in China - 10% increase 

• Public criticisms for poor labour conditions in Foxxconn

Created 200 local jobs

Reshoring - Adidas Speedfactories

• Opened fully automated speedfactory in 2016 in Atlanta

• 3x faster and more flexible than in Asia

• Only employed 160 workers per factory vs 1000 workers per factory in Asia

ISSUES

• 1/400 shoes produced in speedfactories

• 2020 speedfactories closed and moved to China + Vietnam

Crowdsourcing - Decode NYC Surveillance by Amnesty

-Use of surveillance cameras to track facial recognition on the streets of NYC

• Amnesty argue that this is in breach of privacy and security

ISSUES:

• Lack of transparency from the NYPD in terms of the amount of cameras and locations 

AIM:

• Amnesty aims to expose discriminatory surveillance, map invisible technology and advocate for human rights 

Crowdsourcing 

• Volunteers from 153 countries

• 7200 volunteers

• 3470 hours contributed

• Analysed 45,400 locations 

Asked members of the general public to identify surveillance cameras in NYC from google maps 

• Amnesty published a report in 221 with all the locations to highlight the lack of transparency from the NYPD

Crowdsourcing - Peta Bencana Jakarta

• 40% Jakarta below sea level

• Seasonal monsoons cause flooding - exacerbated by climate change

• Govt. sensors are too expensive, not all info is published, or published late

DONE THROUGH:

• When residents post online on social media, Peta Bencana AI chatbot detects words like ‘flood’ and asks users to confirm the flooding, location, time and severity

• Peta Bencana then maps this on their maps 

• Local residents rely on this for early warning and real time updates

• Reshapes how people approach disaster mgmt, playing a role on mgmt and prevention 

SUCCESS:

• Since starting in 2013, there has not yet been a false report

• 47,000 trained in disaster risk reduction that update the app

• 213mil+ users engaged

• 900 humanitarian organisations/govt agencies use the data

Cybersecurity

:protection of hardware, software, data

VPN (Virtual Private Networks): 

• high level of encryption

• allows users to access internet security

MFA (Multi Factor Authentication)

• Requires multiple forms of authentication to verify security

Continuous Monitoring

• Real time tracking of digital activities help in early detection of attacks

Update:

• Regular security updates

E Passports

: contains computer chips and biometric info

• Faster check in and border control

• Harder to create fake identities

• Helps with crime detection

• Govt risk of hacking

• You dont have access to your data

AFRICA PASSPORT

• New African Union (AU) passport expected in 2021

• Has been delayed multiple times (COVID)

• Aims to exempt passport holders from needing visas for free travel in Africa

Agenda 2063

• Flagship project to reduce restrictions

TO

• Boost intra-Africa trade

• Labour mobility and skill transfer

• Improve infrastructure and development

ISSUES

• Not all countries want to ratify the free movement protocol

• Security concerns - extremist groups and trafficking

• Too expensive

SO FAR - some countries are adopting e-visas, some already allow Visa free entry