Geography - Superpowers

Pearson Edexcel Geography A-level Superpowers

superpower

a nation with the ability to project its influence anywhere in the world and act as a dominant power force

emerging powers

countries which have already large and/or growing economic, military and political influence e.g. China

regional powers

countries that have major influence at a continental but not global scale e.g. South Africa, UK, Japan

pillars of superpower status (x5)

1. economic

2. military

3. political

4. resources

5. cultural

military power

the threat of action can be used for bargaining and military force to achieve political goals e.g. War on Terror in the US post 9/11

used for territorial expansion and/or the protection of current territory which allows growth/maintenance of the economy through the acquisition of resources

contribute to global organisations/alliances

political power

the ability to have power within organisations such as the UN and WTO as it allows countries to ‘get their own way’ as higher influence in intergovernmental organisations + trade blocs

cultural power

the appeal of a country’s way of life and ideologies as well as the spread of their film, arts and food e.g. through TNCs like Disney

can change the way other populations think to align with superpowers’ culture

globalisation has facilitated the role of culture e.g. via social media and technology

resource power

the possession of fossil fuels, minerals, land, human capital etc. can generate economic and geopolitical power e.g. demographic dividend in China due to the One Child Policy

can help develop economy through trade (and may cause dependency for natural resources e.g. Russia providing gas to Europe)

economic power

the essential base of a superpower as money is needed to invest in military, exploit resources and develop society e.g. USA has worlds largest economy of $23 trillion

may also own the debt of other nations so power over them

hyperpower/unipolar

a completely dominant superpower globally e.g. Britain 1850 - 1950 or USA post 1990s

bipolar

where there are two main superpowers with opposing ideas e.g. USA + USSR during the Cold War

hard power

countries exert power through military force and the threat of economic sanctions

important during the imperial era where direct dominance and power of colonialism was deemed necessary

e.g. owning a country’s debt

soft power

countries make themselves more attractive and appealing, encouraging others (government + people) to follow

through attractive lifestyle, foreign policies that encourage migration, trade alliances, FDI in business, infrastructure or facilities

smart power

introduced by ‘Nye’ and is a combination of hard and soft power because military conflict doesn’t go as planned as it is difficult to control and isn’t guaranteed to succeed BUT soft power may not be enough to persuade countries

Global Power Index

‘equally weighted average of scores’ from (1) a leader, (2) economic influence, (3) political influence, (4) strong international alliances and (5) strong military

USA (GDP per capita is $22,000 higher than Russia and China combined) then followed by China and Russia in the rankings

Mackinder’s Heartland Theory

‘heartland’

a geo-strategic location in the world as it commands a huge portion of the world’s physical and human resources (protected from invasion from the sea)

applicability of the heartland to today (x5)

1. China is a dominant manufacturing centre

2. Russia has military dominance through nuclear warheads, armies etc.

3. Asia’s rising power due to the global shift (+ its high volume of labour and resources)

4. Russia occupies much of Heartland so easy access to key trade routes e.g. Strait of Malacca etc.

5. framework of controlling resources, people, flows etc. in one area allows power globally is true

why is the heartland not applicable to today (x

1. USA not in heartland

2. OBOR policy main focus is global expansion which isn’t Heartland theory (but will increase economic power)

3. could move south to include India so not entirely accurate

4. resources can be found in other areas and globalisation facilitates transportation of this

5. 55% of world population in India + China (Valeriepieris circles) but not in the heartland

6. shrinking world reduced locational importance of heartland

British empire

period of time (1500s - 1950s) where Britain used its military to control countries that Britain weren’t near (enabled through the size and strength of navy)

success of the British empire (x5)

1. ruled ¼ of the world’s land and 1/3 of population

2. chose specific areas that obtained resources e.g. India + South Africa

3. spread of cultural power as spreading British culture/language e.g. Crusades + Christianity

4. education improved as schools set up with established curriculums

5. railways constructed for transportation of goods + army

mercantile phase

small colonies on coastal fringes to protect and control trade (sugar, tea, slaves etc.) during 1600s - 1850s

increases power of private companies e.g. East India Company

neo-mercantile phase now through control of information and media e.g. Google?

imperial era

setting up control in other countries during the 1500s - 1950s

direct control through colonies meaning trade becomes multi-directional as Britain began exporting goods to colonies + acculturation e.g. English language, religion + sport

why did the British empire fall apart? (x3)

1. economic downturn/slowdown/bankruptcy after WW2 → overspent on war

2. loss of military influence due to heavy losses from WW2 meaning challenges of control

3. increasing desire for self-governance in colonies (+ national liberation movements) making it difficult to maintain control

imperialism

a relationship of political, economic or cultural control between geographical areas e.g. empires

colonialism

the political rule of a nation by another through direct power and control over territory and land

justification of colonialism (x2)

1. modernism = the world can be improved through human intervention and achievement

2. evangelism = spread the Christian word through churches and schools as confirms beliefs that natives were racially inferior

hegemony

maintaining power without the need to resort to direct force (maintained by consent as the people accept values of those in power)

capitalism

an economic and political system in which a country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit

cold war era

period of geopolitical tension between the Soviet Union + US (+ West Europe)

neo-colonialism

the geopolitical practice of using capitalism, business, globalisation and cultural imperialism to control a country indirectly

e.g. Republic of Congo = 53% national debt to China and 80% of all their oil goes to China

e.g. China have 1 million of its people living in Africa and invested over $40 billion into African nations

strategic alliance as a type of neo-colonialism (+ examples)

military alliances between developing nation and superpowers makes the developing nation dependent on military aid and equipment from the superpower

E.G. Francafrique (French control in Ivory Coast as around 700 companies from France locate there)

E.G. UK + Nigeria (Enhanced Trade Investment Partnership where £7 billion invested in 2023)

aid as a type of neo-colonialism (+ examples)

development aid usually comes with strings attached (tied aid) which forces the host country to agree to policies suggested by the donor

E.G. China’s investment of $1 billion in a Tanzania/Zambian railway allows easier access to resources + port for them

TNCs as a type of neo-colonialism (+ examples)

investment creates jobs and wealth whilst TNCs can negotiate favourable tax deals (economic + cultural power)

trade patterns + patents used to protect technology + deep inequality as benefits those that can afford it (e.g. Ghana cannot afford patented medicines)

E.G. India's tartare company investing in British steel

E.G. China invested $19 billlion for Cross Rail, Heathrow, Thames Water etc.

terms of trade as a type of neo-colonialism (+ examples)

low commodity export prices contrast with high prices for imported goods from developed countries (inhibits development)

E.G. monoculture agriculture = 2/3 of African countries derive over 50% of their export earnings from 1 or 2 commodities

debt as a type of neo-colonialism (+ examples)

developing countries which owe debt end up being reliant on the donor (generally conditional loans) for economic development and infrastructure + can be more than the GDP of a country

E.G. HIPC receives SAPs from IMF and WB - 31 of 37 HIPCs in Sub-Saharan Africa

E.G. Ghana = high export of primary goods but had to lower spending on social services due to loans

G20 nations

the most powerful 20 nations in the world that hold 85% of worlds GDP and trade e.g. BRIC nations

Brazil statistics (x4)

1. produces more than 50% of S.America’s GDP

2. between 2018 and 2021, deforestation rate increased by more than 70%

3. leadership drastically changed as 2018 = far0right Bolsonaro elected

4. population is largest in S.America (210 million) + very young

China statistics (x5)

1. 2nd largest economy in the world ($18 trillion GDP)

2. highest military budget of $209 billion

3. have most top 500 TNCs + high revenue in media industries ($526 billion)

4. 33% of worlds CO2 emitter

5. large population of 1.4 billion but 4-2-1 structure (ageing) as 12% over 65%

Japan statistics (x3)

1. 3rd largest GDP ($4.2 trillion)

2. prone to natural disasters so has to adapt

3. vast territory and abundant natural resources

India statistics (x5)

1. growing population by 8.7% meaning young and continually growing GDP

2. more than 20% live in poverty

3. worlds 3rd largest emitter of CO2

4. poor geopolitical relations w. China and Pakistan

5. lots of resources = coal, iron ore and population exceeding 1.4 billion

Russia statistics (x4)

1. one of the worlds top energy exporters e.g. $180 billion in 2021

2. VERY unequal as richest 1% control 71% of total wealth

3. largest standing army of 160,000

4. ageing and declining population

Mexico statistics (x2)

1. involved in USMCA

2. violence and crime issues

Nigeria statistics (x5)

1. faces economic instability and inflation BUT Africa’s largest economy

2. high growth potential due to oil reserves and exports etc.

3. lowest budget for military spending ($2.867 billion)

4. security issues with terrorism and regional conflicts

5. regional influence e.g. ECOWAS

Saudi Arabia statistics (x4)

1. exports 6-7 million barrels of oil per day

2. vision 2030 development plan attracts long term opportunities

3. bordered by key waterways e.g. Suez Canal and Peruvian Gulf

4. lead exporter of oil

Dependency theory

based upon the idea that there are core countries and underdeveloped ones (mutually beneficial relationship)

• E.G. China investing heavily in Africa

• facilitated neo-colonialism as neo-colony becomes dependent on the neo-colonial controlling it

Rostow’s modernisation model

5 stages of economic development for ALL countries but can skip stages e.g. China and India

• links to the gradual change in employment sectors

• based around American and European development (mass consumption and capitalism to create profit)

World Systems Theory

world exists as core (economic powerhouses controlling global trade), periphery (provide labour and materials for core nations) and semi-periphery nations

• tries to explain inequality in wealth and development across the world as core nations exploit periphery’s resources

• E.G. British empire’s exploitation of India for natural resources

intergovernmental organisations

e.g. WTO, IMF, World Bank

make key decisions about the world economy, politics/conflicts and environmental issues

often created by superpowers post war act as a way of promoting cooperation, reducing conflict and stabilising and boosting the economy

World Bank (x4)

• lends money to emerging and developing countries to promote development

• funds projects like roads, HEP, telecoms and water supply schemes

• helps education through the Global Partnership for education = invested over $35 million in educational programs for the most disadvantaged (77 million more children in school)

• gets money from HICs and invests into LICs

IMF (x4)

• promotes global economic stability by intervening in countries that experience economic difficulties through re-arranging loans at adjusted rates of interest for more affordable repayments

• HIPC scheme = clears debt of highly indebted poor countries as often involved in trade traps

• SAPs (Structural Adjustment Programmes) = loans are given alongside conditions that force the state to reduce spending in social services for economic development

• aims to restructure economies e.g. Haiti = emerging economy by 2030 by becoming more resilient

WTO (x5)

• promotes free trade through negotiations between countries in order to promote economic development and reduce debts

• frequently result in environmental degradation e.g. Indonesia = palm oil production clearing rainforests

• main issue is trade agreements and blocs preclude external countries

• ADVISORY organisation meaning no enforcement of rules e.g. discourages moving protected nature etc.

• run by large countries yet free trade is likely to negatively impact large countries so how effective is it?

Big International non-governmental organisations (BINGOs) (x5)

• raise funds worldwide and assist people in multiple countries at the same time

• ENVIRONMENT = Global Environmental Faciltiy = funding mechanism and raised $17 billion and attracted $80 billion from private businesses and individuals

• HEALTH = $30 million for fighting diseases in developing countries

• EDUCATION = UNICEF reached 15.7 million children in over 330,000 classrooms (11.7 million in crisis situations)

• HUMAN RIGHTS = Global Fund for Human Rights = $85 million in grants to over 600 HR groups worldwide

WEF (x3)

• Swiss non-profit organisation to act as a forum for discussion between business, politicians and IGOs

• pro free trade and pro-TNCs (improving economic stability in regions)

• expensive to attend their meetings ($19,000) so doesn’t represent LICs/small businesses

role of global TNCs (x5)

1. huge neo-colonial power which spread capital and goods around the world, generating large revenues

2. in 2014, the world’s 500 largest companies generated £31.2 trillion in revenue and employed over 65 million people

3. huge influence on global culture and ownership of innovation and patents

4. Europe + USA dominate ownership of major TNCs = westernisation e.g. Coca Cola + McDonald’s

5. invest heavily in R&D to develop new products and processes that are unique

United Nations (UN)

primary mechanism for maintaining international peace and security with 5 permanent members (China, France, UK, US and Russia) and 10 rotating non-permanent members (UAE, Brazil etc.)

how does the UN maintain power

applying sanctions (diplomatic or military), authorising the use of military force against a country and authorising a UN peace keeping force

kyoto protocol

developed nations mobilise $100 billion per year for developing countries to reduce GHG emissions (harder for LICs as little funding) BUT US refused to sign

International Court of Justice

settles legal disputes and promotes rule of law and peace (involves many countries so high representation)

UN Security Council

provides justice for victims of war and genocide due to tribunals and applying sanctions against those who pose threats e.g. North Korea

veto power

a constitutional right to reject a decision or proposal made by a lawmaking body for the permanent members (they would leave if not)

E.G. 2022 → Russia vetoed resolutions calling for support for Ukraine or condemning military aid to Ukrainian forces

E.G. Rwanda = biggest failure where 800,000 people were killed in 100 days

NATO (x4)

• includes members like France, UK, USA, Canada etc.

• ensures collective defence of all allies against all threats e.g. against Soviet Union during the Cold War

• no NATO army but all allied nations volunteer troops, equipment and other capabilities

• aims to secure lasting peace in Europe and North America as common values of democracy, human rights and rule of law

ANZUS (x3)

• consists of Australia, New Zealand and the US

• US is main power but Australia is powerful due to strategic location/positioning in the Pacific Ocean (e.g. acts as a deterrent to China)

• engage in regular joint military exercises to enhance interoperability (mutual defence commitments)

EU (x4)

• 28 members states including France, Spain, Germany etc.

• promotes free trade and movement of goods and people between member states (Schengen Agreement) making it one of the largest economies ($16 trillion)

• increasing tensions with EU states from those who want greater integration and cooperation and those who want to leave

• includes environmental objectives e.g. aim to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030

ASEAN (x4)

• consists of 10 South East Asian nations e.g. Thailand, Singapore etc.

• encourage greater cooperation and promotes political, economic and regional stability between nations

• ASEAN Economic Community = attractive partner for major superpowers that enhances economic integration (+ aims to prevent spread of communism)

• accelerates the rate of economic development through negotiating free trade agreements

NAFTA (x4)

• consists of Mexico, Canada and the US

• main focus is to facilitate free trade and investment (benefits TNCs as relocate manufacturing to Mexico with lower labour costs)

• enhances economic growth, creates jobs and promotes fair competition in sectors

• supports the US as a superpower as is a protectionist trade bloc (e.g. 75% of car parts must come from N.America to qualify for no tariffs)

IPCC (x4)

• consists of 195 nations e.g. US, UK, EU, India, China etc.

• aims to stabilise GHG emissions and reduce the harm humans are doing to the environment through playing a large role in global governance and extensive scientific research and reports to identify different strategies

• includes latest funding for upcoming UN climate change conferences as fosters international cooperation and enhances global responses

• many participants still pollute and not held accountable by policies/protocols they have signed

facts about global environmental concerns (x4)

1. urban air quality declining e.g. China = 4000 die a day from respiratory related issues

2. CO2 emissions increasing

3. accelerated deforestation for agriculture, fuel, urbanisation, mining/oil drilling etc.

4. waste disposal issues

impacts of global middle class rising (x7)

1. China lifted 700 million out of poverty

2. use more resources e.g. bigger houses, more appliances, vehicles etc.

3. 1kg beef requires 10x more water than 1kg of rice

4. produce 60% more food by 2050 which will require 140% more water

5. by 2030, it is estimated 60% of places in India will face water scarcity

6. oil demand rising by 30% by 2030 (those with vast reserves will benefit unless vulnerable to exploitation)

7. 80-90% of rare earth minerals used for electronic devices so possible shortages e.g. lithium batteries

China’s view on reducing global emissions (x4)

• worlds biggest investor in renewable wind and solar power

• 70% of China’s power still through coal

• 2014 = agreed to work towards an emissions peak in 2030

• only 18% of population see climate change as an issue

America’s view on reducing global emissions (x2)

• since Donald Trumps election, they have pulled out of many initiatives and given permission for oil drilling in Alaska

• refused to sign the Kyoto protocol

EU’s view on reducing global emissions (x3)

• actively working towards policies and programmes to reduce emissions

• European Green Deal = reduce GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and to be climate neutral by 2050

• international leader in reducing CO2 emissions

Russia’s view onreducing carbon emissions (x2)

• supported the 2015 Paris Climate Change agreement meaning agreed to reduce carbon emissions by 30% from 1990 (but this means they technically can increase emissions)

• heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports (60% of revenue) so don’t want to decrease consumption

Arctic tensions

disputed over the oil and gas reserves (make up 20% of the world’s freshwater resource + 30% of undiscovered gas reserves)

high strategic importance due to the potential to base submarine launched nuclear weapons in the area

how to define an Arctic state

those with a latitude of 66 + ½ degrees north (America = low interest as have Alaska, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Russia = largest coastline, Iceland and Finland)

Northwest passage as a tension

Canada + the US have been disputing over which vessels can enter the passage (recognised as international waters but technically runs through Canadian waters)

Canada wishes to limit which vessels can enter due to climate change

Lomonsov ridge as a tension

Denmark, the Russian Federation and Canada have all asserted their dominance by saying it is an extension of their respective continental ridges

high volume of natural resources in seabed + remains unsolved and disputed

UNICLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) managing Arctic tension (x3)

• 12 mile “territory” for each state

• Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) = coastal states have rights to explore and exploit resources for 200 miles from the baseline (including fishing, mineral extraction and energy production)

• USA not included as it only “recognises” it as an Arctic state

Arctic Council managing Arctic tensions (x2)

• no legal framework but includes 6 indigenous groups and the 8 countries showing interest

• aims to increase cooperation between Arctic states regarding governance and environmental protection

international agreements managing Arctic tensions (x2)

• e.g. High Sea Fishing, Environmental cooperation, Search and Rescue

• not legally binding

climate change as a future uncertainty of the Arctic (x3)

• increased melting of Arctic ice opens up trade routes and potential military disputes

• Finland + Sweden joined NATO

• increasing likelihood of Russia gaining warmer ports for military and navy bases (increasing their geographical influence)

Sino-Russian agreements (China + Russia) as a future uncertainty of the Arctic (x

• China’s largest FDI investor to Russia ($200 billion bi-lateral trade)

• China wants more resources (only contains 6% of the worlds resources) and so interested in Russia’s mining of the Arctic

intellectual property rights

legal protections granted to creators and investors for their intellectual creations including copyright, trademarks, patents, trade secrets and industrial designs

E.G. Apple = version of facial recognition, logo, iOS systems, ‘iPhone’ = patented and led to Samsung being fined $539 million

counterfeit goods (x6)

• 63.2% of counterfeit goods originated from China

• total worldwide losses = $400-600 billion annually

• ethical issues as cost of developing new medicines would not be recouped if others sold it for cheaper

• e.g. pharmadrugs = target non-life threatening diseases that are treated for those with middle incomes

  • 10-30% of the drug market worldwide are counterfeit (1 in 5 drugs) causing half a million deaths each year

  • in 2011, 64% of antimalarial drugs in Nigeria were counterfeit

problems with counterfeit (x4)

1. exploitation of workers that make them (commonly in SE Asia) as often low-unionised and weak rights

2. not safe for consumers e.g. flammable chargers etc.

3. reduced tax as don’t pay royalties

4. could lead to unemployment as drop in sales of legal products (increased competition)

spheres of influence

the spatial extent of control exerted by a country i.e. a physical region over which a country believes it has economic, military, cultural or political rights

examples of tensions over territories (x2)

1. South/East China Sea → strained relations between North + South Korea, Japan and China as contains large volumes of oil and gas

2. Eastern Europe/Western Russia → Eastern European countries joined the EU leading to annoyance from Russia (threat to its power) leading to invasions of Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014)

China’s “Expansionist” approach

strong “regional heartland” but want to reach out and gain more control to become a global influence

• E.G. One Belt One Road Initiative → global development strategy with the aim of enhancing regional connectivity and economic cooperation between Asia, Europe and Africa through infrastructure projects like railways, ports, energy pipelines etc. to facilitate trade

Why does China want to expand? (x4)

1. strategic control = more influence regionally e.g. Taiwan → own territories found within e.g. Tibet and Mongolia

2. economic interest due to oil and gas under the South China sea

3. political influence (want global influence)

4. historical claim if had rights over centuries ago

How is China expanding? (x

1. buy it e.g. “String of Pearls” = purchasing ports with money in order to enhance strategic military control

2. military presence → placing soldiers onto the islands/moor boats out in the sea

3. grey zone tactics (aggression but no military presence)

4. legally through diplomatic manoeuvering

5. tied aid → E.G. China + Africa’s neo-colonial relationships where they exploit Africa for cheap raw materials, labour and weak governance in return for investment

6. investing into other countries e.g. 40% cost of GERD in Ethiopia paid by China OR owning Fuerabamba mine in the Peruvian mountains

facts about China and Africa’s relationship (x5)

• $282 billion in trade (Africa’s largest trading partner)

• 1/3 of Africa’s FDI + construction of infrastructure is from China (allowing economic take-off)

• any building above 3 floors and any road longer than 3km funded by China

• 1/3 China’s oil and 20% cotton from Africa

• 2012 = China owns 15% of Africa’s external debt and 2/3 external loans

Why does China need Africa (x5)

1. cobalt for batteries (DRC)

2. copper for electrification (Zambia)

3. iron-ore for steel (South Africa)

4. lithium for batteries and computers (China are the largest car manufacturer e.g. BD)

5. rapidly urbanising so needs more resources

environmental impacts of China and Africa’s relationship (x4)

1. resource extraction ($5 billion investment)

2. pollution E.G. Kafue River in Zambia = polluted by chemicals from copper mining

3. deforestation E.G. DRC = lost 6 million hectares of forest annually

4. renewable energy funding E.G. more than 10 solar power projects including one of the largest solar plants (Noor Quarzazate in Morocco)

opportunities created by China and Africa’s relationship (x6)

• creates jobs in industry and transport

• development of infrastructure e.g. roads, railways, ports, energy projects etc.)

• Chinese companies set up across Africa = skill development and technological transfer in manufacturing and industry

• expanded trade agreements as export raw materials, oils, minerals and agricultural projects to China whilst Africa get affordable manufactured goods

• energy projects funded by China inc. HEP + solar (rural access to affordable electricity)

• China built schools, hospitals and agricultural tech whilst training 40,000 people

challenges of China’s and Africa’s relationship (x6)

• debt traps allow more control for China

• skilled and technical jobs filled by Chinese workers so Africa can’t upskill their workers

• few long-term jobs in the 1B1R as most short-term construction

• political instability risks destruction of investment e.g. Sudan = civil war and could destroy oil fields by CNPC and railways etc.

• funding child labour e.g. DRC → Kasulo deposit owned and operated by Chinese companies

• outcompete local companies due to differences in scale

geopolitical influence of Asia (x6)

1. 1B1R → China invested $46 billion in Pakistan for China-Pakistan economic corridor

2. ASEAN → largest trading of China ($772 billion in 2022)

3. "“grayzoning” worries Asian countries

4. strategic military ‘partnerships’ like Myanmar and China allow geopolitical influence gained through military aid, training and arms

5. debt traps e.g. Pakistan inc. $40 billion of debt tied to infrastructure projects from 1B1R

6. deep-water ports control crucial trade routes e.g. Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka leased to China for 99 years

economic tensions within Asia (x3)

1. concerns over debt burden imposed by 1B1R as countries unable to repay (e.g. Sri Lanka leased Hambantoto Port to China as repayment)

2. China = very larger exporter so concerns of trade imbalances within ASEAN

3. trade imbalance between Russia and China as over reliant on Chinese goods BUT China critically reliant on Russia’s energy exports

political tensions within Asia (x3)

1. China claims the South China Sea in order to control resources and influence in enighbouring countries (secures trade routes to Suez Canal etc.)

2. China’s expansional attitude

3. historical claims over Taiwan by China as issues with sovereignty, identity and national security

why are there tensions in the Middle East? (x5)

1. religion = Sunni (Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey etc.) and Shia (Iraq, Iran, Lebanon etc.) fight against each other in proxy wars

2. oil and gas as 65% of the world’s crude oil comes from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia) + control price

3. history as colonial powers drew up borders which don’t separate populations etc. e.g. Kurdish demand their own states or Israel vs Palestine conflict

4. delayed implementation of green technologies as tensions over exploitation of resources

5. aid e.g. USA provide $260 billion of military aid to Israel (picking sides)

future uncertainties (x3)

1. rate of change is increasing including rapid population growth increasing resource usage and supply (implications on environmental tipping points)

2. Africa = exports of resources has a positive effect on GDP but vulnerable to exploitation due to high inequality due to civil unrest and political instability → “leapfrogging” e.g. never had landlines + young population attracts FDI

3. China = neo-colonial power increasing ability to get resources, and political and strategic control through FDI → large domestic market producing powerful TNCs but ageing meaning pressure on social and welfare services + government