Lesson 10A — Ageing, Labour Markets & Immigration

Canada TFR levels

TFR: 1.56 (2011), 1.60 (2017), ~1.5 (2021)

Canada life expectancy

81.9 years (2017), 82.7 (2021)

Canada ageing trend

Elderly 65+: 8% (1960) → 17% (2017) → ~19% (2021)

Canada population growth scenarios

Status Quo, Medium, High(80M), Very High (100M by 2100 needs ~1.16M immigrants/year)

Canada immigration effect

Immigration mitigates but cannot reverse ageing

Germany TFR

TFR ~1.5 (2017–2021)

Germany elderly share

11% (1960) → 21% (2017)

Germany pension crisis

Severe strain projected after 2030

Germany migration scenarios

0, +135k, +270k migrants annually

Germany outcomes

Immigration slows but does not prevent rising dependency ratios

Immigration short-run benefits

More labour supply, more taxpayers

Immigration long-run limits

Migrants also age; ageing continues

Positive effect channels: Immigration workforce effect

Raises young working-age share

Positive effect channels: Immigration fertility effect

Migrant fertility slightly higher but converges downward

Positive effect channels: Immigration taxpayer

Expands tax base → supports PAYG

Structural limit: scale

Unsustainable inflows needed to freeze ageing

Structural limit: TFR & LE

Does not fix low TFR or high life expectancy

Structural limit: fiscal costs

Infrastructure, housing, schools, healthcare costs

Structural limit: social acceptance

Public attitudes limit feasible intake

Effective strategy: selective intake

Prioritise skill-complementary migrants

Effective strategy: skill upgrading

Train mid/low-skilled migrants

Effective strategy: integration

Promote cohesion & reduce discrimination

Effective strategy: technology

Use automation/AI to offset labour shortages

Conclusion

Immigration helps but cannot solve ageing; best combined with tech & integration