Civil War/Ukraine/Israel Palestine/ Climate

What are the two main forms of contemporary international violence?

Terrorism and civil wars

How is terrorist violence defined?

Violence targeting civilians to impose costs on society rather than achieve military goals

What is the strategy of attrition in terrorism?

Imposing costs on an adversary until they change policy

What is spoiling as a terrorist strategy?

convince adversary that peace deals with moderates wont hold

What is provocation in terrorism?

Encouraging an indiscriminate response that alienates moderates

What is intimidation as a terrorist strategy?

Discouraging moderates from cooperating by making cooperation dangerous

What is outbidding in terrorism?

Competing with rival groups for support by demonstrating greater resolve and violence

How important is terrorism as a threat today?

Politically salient but relatively low risk

Where does most terrorist violence occur today?

In countries experiencing civil war

What is the central challenge for rebels starting a civil war?

Building an army

What distinguishes civil wars from interstate wars?

Rebels must create militaries from scratch

What monopoly should a strong state possess?

The legitimate use of violence

What is the commitment problem in civil wars?

Rebels fear the state will renege once they disarm

Why are civil wars difficult to end?

Lack of trust and fear after disarmament

How did the Arab Spring illustrate state weakness?

Popular protests revealed lack of legitimacy

Why is building an insurgency difficult in strong states?

State control, legitimacy, and willingness to repress

Why is eastern DRC prone to violence?

Weak state control and difficult terrain

What did Charles Tilly argue about state formation?

War made the state and the state made war

Why don't weak states consolidate today?

Norms against conquest and foreign intervention

What is the territorial integrity norm?

Borders cannot be changed by force

How do powerful states intervene today?

By propping up governments or rebels, not annexing territory

What is nonintervention in civil wars?

Staying out to avoid prolonging conflict

What is the risk of nonintervention?

Acquiescing in genocide

What is mediation in civil wars?

Providing information and political cover

What limits mediation?

Lack of coercive power

What is peacekeeping?

Maintaining peace through monitoring and deterrence

What does peacekeeping require?

An existing peace agreement

What is peace enforcement?

Military intervention to impose peace

What are risks of peace enforcement?

Military danger and political abuse

Why is Ukraine important to Russia?

Cultural, historical, and security significance

How is Ukraine internally divided?

Pro-Russian east and pro-Western west

What happened in Ukraine's 2004 election?

Fraud accusations led to protests and rerun elections

What occurred in Ukraine in 2014?

Government collapse, Crimea annexation, eastern conflict

What is the standard explanation for Russia's actions?

Russian revisionism and norm violation

What is the alternative explanation for Russia's actions?

Security dilemma driven by NATO expansion

Why does NATO expansion concern Russia?

It appears as a military threat near its borders

Why did Russia invade Ukraine in 2022?

Overconfidence, commitment problems, and miscalculation

What was Russia's key miscalculation?

Underestimating Ukrainian resolve and Western unity

What kind of war has Ukraine become?

A war of attrition

Why has NATO appeared stronger since 2022?

A clear external threat unified members

Why are moderate peace deals unlikely in Ukraine?

Credible commitment problems

Why is territorial conquest less effective today?

Nuclear weapons, norms, and nationalism

What role does nationalism play in modern war?

Conquered populations resist foreign rule

What is competitive intervention?

Great powers backing opposing sides in contested states

When are great power wars more likely?

During regime crises in strategically important states

Why is the Israel-Palestine conflict so salient?

Religion, Holocaust legacy, and diaspora politics

Why is Jerusalem important?

It has deep religious and symbolic significance

How does the Holocaust shape Israel's politics?

It reinforces legitimacy and security concerns

What role do diasporas play?

They advocate for homeland interests abroad

Why is the conflict hard to resolve? (ISR PAL)

Norm constraints, mistrust, and competing claims

What political dilemma does Israel face?

fully democratic state, jewish electoral majority, control of all occupied lands

What characterizes Netanyahu's strategy?

Avoiding final settlement while managing security

What is escalation dominance?

The ability to out-escalate challengers

Why was the Gaza war so deadly?

Israel sought unprecedented deterrence

How do domestic politics affect the Gaza war?

Netanyahu's political survival incentives

Why has Western opinion shifted on Israel?

Partisanship and humanitarian visibility

What does NAG mean?

Neutral Accusations of Genocide

When did climate change become scientifically recognized?

1970s-1980s

What major treaty was signed in 1992?

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

What was the goal of the Kyoto Protocol?

Reduce emissions 5% below 1990 levels

Why did Kyoto fail?

Weak enforcement and lack of US participation

What is cap and trade?

A system allowing emissions permits to be bought and sold

What is the Paris Climate Agreement's goal?

Limit warming to 2°C

Why is Paris considered weak?

Voluntary targets and no enforcement

What is the projected warming under current pledges?

About 2.7°C

What are political effects of climate change?

Refugees, disasters, and sea-level rise

Why is climate change a collective action problem?

Costs are immediate and local, benefits are global and future

Why is climate change politically difficult in the US?

Low salience and partisan divides

Why do politicians underinvest in climate policy?

Electoral incentives favor short-term gains

What are distributional effects of climate policy?

Some groups bear disproportionate costs

Who benefits most from climate action?

Younger populations and coastal communities

Who bears the greatest adjustment costs?

Carbon-intensive industries and workers

What is the regime complex for climate change?

Overlapping institutions governing climate policy

What is the tradeoff between carbon tax and cap-and-trade?

Economic efficiency versus political feasibility