Trend forecasting midterm

Matthieu Blazy

Creative director for Chanel

Demna Gvasalia

Creative director for Gucci

Alessandro Michele

• maximalist designs

Creative director for Valentino

Design

A unique combination of silhouette, construction, fabric, and details that distinguishes a single object from all other objects of the same category or classes

Style

A characteristic mode of presentation that typifies several similar objects of the same category or class

how trend gets spread through the media

The more often you see it online, the more likely you’ll believe it’s a thing that’s happening in the real world

• Beaded phone straps

• Polka dots

• Coquette hair bows

Example of a fad (style/trend/look) rn

• Baggy on baggy

• flare jeans (different ways of styling jeans)

Example of a fashion (style/trend/look) rn

• Denim on denim 

• Black

• Leather jacket

• Tiffany ring

Example of a classic style/trend/look right

• size of country

• products observability (is it viral..)

• price categories (who can afford it)

can it be sold at many different price points?

• product categories

4 factors that the speed of the trend process rely on?

• Relatable

• Affordable

• Lipstick effect: urge to splurge even though basic neccessities are hard to afford

• DIY-friendly

• Celebrity influence, nostalgia, aesthetic movement, seasonality).

Some reasons why trends are adopted in mass / goes viral?

• It creates a platform for constant comparison - constantly wanting/feeling pressure to have what other people have (influencers, friends, for you page, etc)

• Promotional campaigns and curated content on a mass scale

How does social media exacerbate trend forecasting

Short term - focus of new product and the current social climate’s colors, aesthetics, etc. 1 to 2 years in future

Long term: focuses on the general direction of the brand and deeply analyzed the triggers of a trend and the longevity of it. 5 + years

Diff between short term and long-term forecasting

Zeitgeist is the spirit of time

• society

• economy

• culture

• politics

• technology

What is a zeitgeist and what are the categories that trend forecasters analyze?

Prescriptive media and observations:

• news (BBC, NY times)

• magazines (across diff disciplines)

• art (people magazine, cosmopolitan)

• social media,

• traveling 

• fashion platforms - WGSN, vogue

Methodologies of a trend forecaster

A period where a certain behavior, style, action is popular amongst a group of people due to a deeper psychological reason

What is a trend?

idea, acceleration and impact

3 elements of trend

innovators and sub groups

Who are the ‘leader’ or initiators of the trickle across theory?

• Trend creators

• trend setters

• early trend followers (influencers, celebrities) 

What groups are responsible for trickle down trends?

high end designers, like Oscar de la renta coming up with an idea and other designers take inspiration in subsequent collections until its seen in mass markets

-off the shoulder shirts

Example of a trickle down trend

• Tshirts being worn in labor settings being transformed into runway staples

• Distressed denim - popularized from punk rock scene and social movements and influenced by designers like Marc Jacobs

Example of a trickle up trend

early mainstreamers, mainstreamers, late mainstreamers, conservatives, anti-innovators

what is purple and down on the diamond

Analyze what customers are feeling/want to feel

Whats the first step to color forecasting?