Agent-Based Assessments of Criminological Theory

Criminological theories

Theories that describe postulated mechanisms of cognition and action for both potential victims and offenders, as well as the surrounding environment's role in locating victimhood.

Agent-based model

A method for investigating the generative sufficiency of individual-level criminological theory, including its strengths, flaws, and prerequisites for a generative method.

Computational models

Models used to investigate the potential applications of computational models in order to better characterize and comprehend the complex interactions of the crime event.

Individual-level crime theories

Theories that describe the mechanisms of cognition and action for both potential victims and offenders at the individual level.

Generative method

A method that allows for the creation of data that can be used to test hypotheses and theories.

Social Sciences

A field of study that examines the functioning and interconnections of society and acknowledges that complexity is intrinsic to most of the phenomena they study.

Methodological Challenges

Obstacles that hinder the effectiveness of standard equation-based models for theory testing, including the complexity of social phenomena, ethical and practical obstacles to controlled experiments, and the presumption of rational, perfect actors with access to perfect information.

Unit Heterogeneity

The fundamental heterogeneity of social systems that is often concealed in conventional social science models through the use of "representative agent" strategies in order to reduce processing needs.

Agent-based Models (ABMs)

Computational modeling tools that replicate the interactions between various autonomous entities in order to analyze how the decentralized individual actions influence the behavior of the entire system. They enable social science researchers to develop virtual societies and investigate the relationship between daily human decisions and observable events.

Natural Paradigm

Agent-based models are considered a "natural" paradigm for the study of human systems due to their capacity to capture the linkages between micro-action and macro-result. They are a well-established computer simulation technique with numerous real and promising applications in a variety of fields.

Agent

In an ABM, an autonomous entity that represents each member of the virtual population and makes decisions on its own.

Agent Behaviors

A range of behaviors exhibited by agents that regulate how they see, reason, and act in specific contexts. These are characterized by a set of condition-action rules, and algorithms and heuristics are built to reflect the individual-level mechanisms proposed by theory.

Environment

The space in which ABM agents operate. The environment can take on various forms depending on the objective of the model being constructed. It can represent abstract physical or social space, or it might be created to closely resemble actual environments.

Autonomy

ABMs lack comprehensive top-down control methods, allowing each agent to independently perceive, argue, and act.

Heterogeneity

ABMs imitate many agents with various internal properties, but use the same decision calculus to study real-world phenomena.

Explicit Space

ABMs depict creatures embedded in an abstract or realistic space, facilitating the formation of the concept of local interaction.

Local Interactions

ABMs focus mostly on interactions between entities that are physically or socially close to one another inside the simulated environment.

Bounded Rationality

Agents' rational decision-making can be confined to localized, limited information, using bounded computation to avoid endlessly searching all possible actions to find the best solution.

Accessibility

Agent-based methods help researchers understand difficult ideas as ABM pieces are usually defined individually, making them easier to understand than complex mathematical abstractions.

Aiding Scientific Discourse

The intuitive representation of complicated processes by ABM can result in enhanced scientific discourse and the formalization of theoretical ideas.

Simulation Experimentation

ABMs enable experiments that would otherwise be impossible due to financial, ethical, or logistical limitations.

Absolute Control

ABM is an innovative alternative to controlled social experiments, allowing researchers to adjust any number of outside elements to study dose-response interactions in limitless configurations.

Absolute Observation

ABMs create a synthesis of real-world systems in which precise observation and measurement can occur, enabling researchers to collect simulation data sets that describe every action taken by members of a simulated population and their underlying calculations.

Generativist

A belief that complex social science phenomena can be comprehended by synthesizing their genesis from lower-order activity and interaction.

Microlevel mechanisms

Building ABMs of a system's proposed microlevel mechanisms and testing if they create the target's macroscopic regularities can test ABMs.

Macro-level output patterns

Generative social science evaluates theory by identifying microlevel mechanisms that yield macro-level output patterns that match observable regularities.

Plausible explanation

If a system cannot generate regularities, it may be discarded as a plausible explanation of the target phenomena.

Civil violence

An area of exploration for generative social science.

Epidemic control

An area of exploration for generative social science.

Indigenous community cultural change

An area of exploration for generative social science.

Generative Agent-Based Models

A technique used to investigate criminological theory propositions, using Epstein's generative social science concept.

Micro-specifications of the Crime Eventn

The characteristics and interactions of individual-level activities that determine the spatial and temporal distribution of criminal behavior and victimization.

Routine activity approach and pattern theories of crime

Describes how individual-level activities determine the distribution of criminal behavior and victimization based on the movements of prospective offenders, potential victims, and potential protectors.

Rational choice perspective

A quantifiable offender decision calculus based on boundedly rational evaluations of perceived risks, rewards, and efforts faced in prospective pre-crime circumstances.

Social learning theory

Hypotheses concerning mechanisms of offender reinforcement, where repeat offenders' decision calculus considers past offenses and their success or failure.

Network theory of peer association

Individuals who constitute agents, who may have particular peer relationships, where the choice rules for engaging in criminal activity and the decision to (dis)continue being a member of a peer network are given.

Social disorganization theory

Proposes communications of risk and crime control among peer (neighborhood) groups, where agents will be individuals in social contexts, and the decision rules will be based on risk communication between agents and the likelihood of agents engaging in criminal control against others.

Spatial Clustering

The concentration of crime in a small number of geographic areas, known as crime hotspots or hot places.

Temporal Clustering

The disproportionate rate of victimization during specific times of the day, week, or month compared to other periods.

Repeat and Near-Repeat Victimization

The victimization of a small number of individuals or locations at disproportionate rates, with near-repeat victimization occurring in close proximity to previously victimized targets.

Repeat Offending

The disproportionate distribution of criminal activity among a small percentage of offenders who are accountable for a significant percentage of crime.

Journeys to Crime

The existence of a distance decay function in which criminal excursions occur within a short distance of offenders' residences.

Age-Crime Curve

The pattern of criminal activity increasing during youth and peaking in late teens/early twenties before declining steadily with age.

Simulation Studies

Studies that test theories by comparing simulated crime patterns to appropriate macroscopic regularities.

Model Qualification

The evaluation of whether a conceptual model adequately represents the original theoretical model.

Model Verification

The determination of whether computational constructions adequately replicate the conceptual model from which they were formed.

Model Result Validation

The evaluation of the adequacy of theoretically defined computational constructs in representing the output behavior of the target system as a whole.

Systematic Control of Experimental Conditions

The adherence to stringent design rules and employment of counterfactual simulation states to evaluate the effects of model modifications.

Simulation Replication

The identification of implementation-specific issues that may impact observed outcomes.

Robustness Testing

The investigation of the impact of parameter changes on outcome patterns.

Levels of In Situ/In Silico Equivalence

The degrees of in situ and in silico system equivalence, ranging from qualitative macro equivalence to quantitative equivalence.

Multiple Output Measures

The analysis of other relevant regularities in addition to in situ/in silico equivalence, in order to identify descriptions of a system that are compatible with observable occurrences.