Day 7-- emerging infectious diseases

What were the basics of the mysterious case study?

Female who was in uganda, had chills and a fever (misdiagnosed with malaria)

later on experienced rapid deterioration, and liver failure

→ 3 tourists went to a cave, sat within 5 M of gorillas, visited pygmies and saw sick individuals

zoonosis

disease from non-human animal to humans

Pathogenic pressure

amount of pathogen avail to recipient host at a given point in space and time

Dose and route of exposure

likelyhood, dose, and route of exposure ( contact with pathogen)

Host succeitbility

Host tropism- infection specifics of certain pathogens to particular hosts and host tissues

What leads to infectious spillovers?

Distribution and intensity of infection in reservoir hosts, pathogen release from reservoir host, survival and spreading, human exposer, host

Pathogenic survival and movement?

transport of meat or vector survival

What is the risk of spillover determined by?

ecological dynamics of infection in reservoir hosts,

■ microbiological (and vector) determinants of survival and dissemination

outside of reservoir hosts,

■ epidemiological and behavioral determinants of exposure, and

■ within-host biological factors that shape susceptibility

Swiss chees model ☹

pathogen must overcome a series of barriers to transmit from one species to another ( alignment of the holes)

(Morse et al) key points ab zoonotic diseases

More recent pandemics are caused by zoonotic pathogens (originated from wildlife)

Also driven by ecological, behavioral or socioeconomic changes

(Morse et al) what do new risk assessments show?

show a promise for the use of capabilities to predict and pre-empt potential pandemics

Also new disease modeling and survillaning