4 - Energy for Generations + Decarbonization Bankruptcy

Why is Ontario's Energy Demand Rising?

Population growth, industrial growth, and electrification (EV chargers, heating, industry)

Integrated Energy Plan

Covers all energy sources (electricity, natural gas, hydrogen, energy storage, biofuels)

Looks ahead to 2050 with the goal of making Ontario more self-reliant

History of Energy Planning

Used to be very fragmented/siloed/divided

Expensive electricity contracts, some power purchased much higher than market cost, led to energy poverty, businesses left the province, etc.

Since 2018, the government has attempted to restore affordability, improve transparency, and stabilize electricity bills

Government Plans Since 2018

Fixing the Hydro Mess Act (2019)

Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER

Comprehensive Electricity Plan (CEP)

Pathways to Decarbonization (IESO)

Ontario's Clean Energy Opportunity (EETP)

Powering Ontario's Growth (2023)

Basis of the Plan

3 Key Ideas: Affordability (low costs), security (proper energy supply in Ontario year round), and clean energy (low emissions to attract investment)

Guiding Principles: Infrastructural choices, new generation, grid modernization, public funding, regulatory decisions

Features of the Plan

Efficiency - programs to help homes/businesses reduce energy use

Electricity Supply - new nuclear projects, refurbished hydro, continue natural gas generation

Transmission - build new major transition lines

Modern Grid - smart technologies, integrate distributed energy

Natural Gas - keep natural gas long term

Other Fuels - hydrogen and biofuels become bigger contributors

Integrated Planning - coordinate electricity, gas, and fuels

Indigenous Partnerships - support indigenous equity participation and remote energy access

Ontario as Energy Exporter - nuclear technology exports, clean electricity exports

Ontario's Current Energy Use

37% is petroleum products: transportations - gasoline, diesel, jet fuel

36% is natural gas: 75% of homes heated with gas - industrial + electricity generation

21% is electricity: one of the cleanest grids - mostly nuclear + hydro

6% is miscellaneous (hydrogen, RNG, biofuels): small but growing

Demand of electricity is expected to grow 75% by 2050 - more generation needed

Decarbonization Bankruptcy Prediction

Dr. Mark Winfield from York University

Ontario could spend over $400 billion on nuclear projects by 2050, when we would be 70% dependent on it

Expensive, long construction times, and risk of delays

Cost Implications

Could dramatically raise electricity rates

Could derail electrification

Inflexibility

Nuclear has a big baseload that must run - problems occur when demand is low

System is less adaptable

Renewables Shrinking

Reduction of non-hydro renewables, despite being cheaper globally

Limited Transparency

Decisions appear political

Lack of Ontario Energy Board review

Avoids environmental assessment

Natural Gas Reliance

Plan quietly assumes continued gas use

Electrification of home heating abandoned

No Climate Impact Planning

Hydroelectric supply

Peak demand

Infrastructure resilience

Locking in Infrastructure

Future governments may struggle to reverse decisions

Long lifetimes + huge capital costs = inflexibility

Distributed Energy Defected

Grid prices rising - business/communities could switch to their own systems

Could leave provincial grid with stranded assets

Government Vision

Nuclear as main solution, natural gas retained, renewables grow slowly

Big, centralized products

Affordability, security, clean energy

Expert Vision

Nuclear expansion = too costly + risky

Renewables + storage should expand quickly

Need planning framework with transperancy

Lack of energy efficiency, climate impacts not considered

Ontario could face high energy prices in the future