Ukraine conflict

Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1918)

treaty that recognized Ukraine’s independence from the Russian empire in the international community

1994 Budapest Memorandum

Ukraine agrees to trade away its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees by the US, UK, and Russia to “respect the independence, sovereignty, and the existing borders of Ukraine”

2008 NATO membership attempt

Bush supported, but France and Germany opposed it after Russia voiced its displeasure (because they got cheap gas from them)

the Maidan revolution (2014)

Yanukovych (president at the time) refuses to sign an association agreement with the EU to bring Ukraine into a free trade agreement leading to protests

major event in 2014

Russia annexes Crimea

date of the invasion of Ukraine

Feb 24, 2022

factors of Russia’s interests in Ukraine

identity, security, and economy

Russia’s interest in Ukraine - identity

connection to Kievan Rus, Russian disporia in Ukraine, shared orthodox christianity, crimea viewed as part of Russian history and identity, Ukraine viewed as an artificial “social construct” by Western powers

Russia’s interest in Ukraine - security

maintain a sphere of influence and dominate the former USSR, restructure European security architecture in more favorable-for-Russia terms, resist expansion of NATO (the west) in its backyard, control Azov and Black sea to project power into the Mediterranean, strategic importance of Sevastopol-based Black Sea fleet in Crimea

Russia’s interest in Ukraine - economy

pull Ukraine into Eurasian Union to ensure trade dependence, Ukraine as energy transit (pipeline) to Europe, energy deposits in Black Sea zone, mineral resources (titanium, lithium), competitor to Russian grain, ports of Odessa and Sevastopol provide commercial access for exports

diversionary war

Putin attempting to divert attention from domestic problems and enhance his popularity

US interests in Ukraine

European security and BoP in the region, rivalry against China-Russia axis, depleting and weakening Russia gradually with Ukrainian hands, energy trade with EU, profits for American military-industrial complex, supporting democracy in Ukraine

China’s interests in the conflict

change US dominated world order into multipolar system; makes Russia more dependent on China, west busy with Ukraine gives an upper hand on Taiwan, proposed peace plan - reputation of a mediator