34. Case study: voting behaviour in the general elections

The most recent elections

What were the social and demographic issues during the 1979?

• The Conservatives managed to gain some C1 and C2 votes but not as much as Labour

• There was also a sharp decline in the “working class“ - this may have eroded Labour’s vote

• The size of the middle class was growing - they usually voted for the Conservatives

What were the valance and competency issues during the 1979 general election?

• Labour was unable to manage the economy and control the union - lots of strikes and the Winter of Discontent 1978-9

• Unemployment was over one million

• There was a confidence motion in Parliament - the govt lost

• Pay restraint policy was in shreds

What were the key political issues during the 1979 general election?

• Inflation and mass unemployment - Labour was unable to cut income tax; inflation would be up by 5%

• They were also struggling to limit privatisation

What were the other issues during the 1979 general election?

• Events such as the International Momentary fund bailout in 1976 which led to an economic crisis

• Callaghan’s decision not to hold an election until 1978 may have annoyed voters

• The media (the Sun) supported Conservatives

• Thatcher’s policies looked better economically

• Thatcher was experienced in running campaigns

• Leadership - Callaghan was still more popular than Thatcher

What was the outcome of the 1979 general election?

Labour had the lowest vote share since 1945 - they didn’t get back into office for 18 years and the economy changed massively

What were the social and demographic issues during the 1997 general election?

• Labour succeeded in appealing across their traditional C2/DE and AB and C1 voters

• 50% C2s voted Labour and 59% of DEs voted Labour

• Labour’s vote share in the AB voters increased by 12%

• There was big levels of class and partisan dealignment

What were the valance and competency issues during the 1997 general election?

• Competency issues after the Starling crisis of 1992

• The move from Old to New Labour made them look better

How did party leaders influence the 1997 general election?

• Blair was seen as a younger, more dynamic leader

• John Mayor was blamed for the economic crash

What were the key political issues during the 1997 general election?

• Mistakes of Mayor’s government - sleaze of MPs and economic management problems

• Labour campaigned on issues that voters cared about like education

What were the other issues during the 1997 general election?

• The Sun supported Labour and Blair

• The Conservatives had been governing for 16 years

• Labour was united whilst the Tories were disunited

What was the outcome of the 1997 general election?

Labour won a 178 seat majority and started a 13 year Labour govt and ended a 18 year Conservative rule

What were the social and demographic issues during the 2017 general election?

• The main two divides were leave/ remain and age

• 60% of leave voters voted Conservative; 25% of remain voters voted Conservative

• 51% of remain voters and 25% of leave voters voted Labour

• Age - 2/3 of 18-24 year olds voted Labour, 3/5 of 65+ voted Conservative - this was a principal division

• Social class was less of a factor

What were the valance and competency issues during the 2017 general election?

• The Conservatives were struggling to pass legislation to trigger Brexit

• Corbyn was viewed by some as lacking in experience and judgement

How did party leaders influence the 2017 general election?

• Corbyn attracted younger voters - policies such as the abolition of tuition fees

• May did not come off well with her policy and campaign

What were the key political issues during the 2017 general election?

• Brexit - 82% of votes cast across the UK as a whole went to a Conservative or Labour candidate because people wanted Brexit to be completed

What events influenced the 2017 general election?

• Social care U turn (Dementia tax) - Conservative policy was greatly received by the electorate. May then scrapped the policy and the party received lots of backlash

What were the other issues influenced the 2017 general election?

• Campaign - there was no televised face to face debates involving Corbyn and May refused which made her look back.

• She did separate, smaller rallies that can be controlled.

• Lots of policy U-turns and Labour’s strong social media presence impacted the Conservative’s vote share

What was the outcome of the 2017 general election?

• The election failed to deliver an overall majority

• Vote share: C - 42% L - 41% - Labour’s vote share increased by 10%

• The Conservatives won the most seats - they had to form a supply and confidence agreements with the DUP

What were the social and demographic issues during the 2019 general election?

• Social class was not a dividing issue since the Conservatives won across all social groups

• Socially liberal/conservative were the main dividing factors due to Brexit

• Labour lost the leave vote - 73% of leave voters voted Conservative

• Age - the younger generation voted Labour; Older voters votes Conservatives

• Education - lack of education - voted Leave and Conservative

What were the valance and competency issues during the 2019 general election?

• Labour’s economic competency issue was a big factor - lost 59 seats and the Red Wall

• Get Brexit Done made the Conservatives look like they were able to deliver Brexit

How did party leaders influence the 2019 general election?

• Many people liked Johnson more than Corbyn

• Corbyn was too socialist for the UK - 35% of people didn’t vote due to Corbyn

What were the other issues during the 2019 general election?

• Parliament was failing to get Brexit done and the govt didn’t have a majority - many wanted a govt who would end Brexit

What was the outcome of the 2019 general election?

The Conservatives won a 80 seat majority

What was the turnout of the 2024 general election?

59.7%

What percentage of the vote share did Labour get in 2024?

33.7%

How big was the Labour majority in 2024?

172 majority