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Project Risk Management
Includes the processes concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk. It includes maximizing the results of positive events and minimizing the consequences of adverse events.
Risk Identification
Determining which risks are likely to affect the project and documenting the characteristics of each.
Risk Quantification
Evaluating risks and risk interactions to assess the range of possible project outcomes.
Risk Response Development
Defining enhancement steps for opportunities and responses to threats.
Risk Response Control
Responding to changes in risk over the course of the project.
Internal Risks
Things that the project team can control or influence, such as staff assignments and cost estimates.
External Risks
Things beyond the control or influence of the project team, such as market shifts or government action.
Checklists (Risk Identification)
Typically organized by source of risk, including project context, technology issues, and team member skills.
Flowcharting (Risk Identification)
Helps the project team better understand the causes and effects of risks.
Interviewing (Risk Identification)
Risk-oriented interviews with stakeholders to identify additional risks.
Sources of Risk
Categories of possible risk events that may affect the project for better or worse.
Potential Risk Events
Discrete occurrences such as a natural disaster or the departure of a team member that may affect the project.
Risk Symptoms
Indirect manifestations of actual risk events, sometimes called triggers.
Inputs to Other Processes (Risk ID Output)
The risk identification process may identify a need for further activity in another area.
Stakeholder Risk Tolerances
Different organizations and individuals have different tolerances for risk.
Expected Monetary Value
The product of the risk event probability and the risk event value.
Statistical Sums
Used to calculate a range of total project costs from the cost estimates for individual work items.
Simulation (Risk Quantification)
Uses a representation or model to analyze system behavior; commonly performed using Monte Carlo analysis.
Decision Trees
A diagram depicting key interactions among decisions and associated chance events.
Expert Judgment (Risk Quantification)
Applied in lieu of or in addition to mathematical techniques to assess risk.
Opportunities to Pursue, Threats to Respond To
A list of opportunities that should be pursued and threats that require attention.
Opportunities to Ignore, Threats to Accept
Documented sources of risk that the team has consciously decided to accept or ignore.
Avoidance (Risk Response)
Eliminating a specific threat, usually by eliminating the cause.
Mitigation (Risk Response)
Reducing the expected monetary value of a risk event by reducing probability, value, or both.
Acceptance (Risk Response)
Accepting the consequences of a risk, either actively or passively.
Procurement (Risk Response Development)
Acquiring goods or services from outside the immediate project organization as a risk response.
Contingency Planning
Defining action steps to be taken if an identified risk event should occur.
Alternative Strategies
Changing the planned approach to prevent or avoid risk events.
Insurance
An arrangement to deal with some categories of risk; type and cost vary by application area.
Risk Management Plan
Documents procedures to manage risk throughout the project and includes contingency plans and risk assignments.
Contingency Plans
Pre-defined action steps to be taken if an identified risk event should occur.
Reserves
A provision in the project plan to mitigate cost and/or schedule risk.
Contractual Agreements
Entered into to avoid or mitigate threats, such as for insurance or services.
Workarounds
Unplanned responses to negative risk events not defined in advance.
Additional Risk Response Development
Repeating response development if the planned response is inadequate.
Corrective Action (Risk Response Control)
Performing the planned risk response such as implementing contingency plans or workarounds.
Updates to Risk Management Plan
Adjustments made as actual risk events occur or fail to occur and as effects are evaluated.
Risk analysis or risk assessment
The combined process of risk identification and risk quantification, when treated as a single process.
Response planning or risk mitigation
Alternate terms for risk response development.
Risk management (as a combined process)
The term used when risk response development and risk response control are treated as a single process.
Risk identification approaches
May be accomplished by identifying causes-and-effects or effects-and-causes.
Product Description
The nature of the product of the project will have a major effect on the risks identified, often described in terms of their cost and schedule impact.
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and risk
Non-traditional approaches to detail deliverables may offer opportunities not apparent from higher-level deliverables in the scope statement.
Cost Estimates and Duration Estimates (risk implication)
Aggressive estimates and estimates developed with limited information entail more risk.
Staffing Plan (risk implication)
Identified team members may have unique skills that are hard to replace or have tenuous availability.
Procurement Management Plan (risk implication)
Market conditions such as a sluggish local economy may offer opportunities to reduce contract costs.
Historical Information
Information about what actually happened on previous projects that can help in identifying potential risks.
Project Files (as a source of historical info)
Records of previous project results maintained by one or more organizations involved in the project.
Commercial Databases (as a source of historical info)
Historical information available commercially in many application areas.
Project Team Knowledge (as a source of historical info)
Individual recollections from team members, useful but generally less reliable than documented results.
Risk Event Probability
An estimate of the probability that a given risk event will occur.
Risk Event Value
An estimate of the gain or loss that will be incurred if the risk event does occur.
Actual Risk Events
Identified risk events that do occur, requiring implementation of developed responses.
Additional Risk Identification
As project performance is measured and reported, previously unidentified potential risk events or sources of risk may surface.