Traps and Biases+steps+mitigation

Rush to solve

Steps 1,2

solve wrong problem

Decision Trigger

Steps 1,2

Alternatives that blind us from “real prob” (limits options)

Means to an end

Steps 1,2

Confuse means w/ real goal

Frozen Frames

Steps 1,2

1.Acnoledge frame, 2. articulate current frame, 3. Challenge frame, 4. Ask for other views, 5. Proactive framing (generate new frames)

(Hanlons razor)

SALY

Step 3

Label SALY solutions

Zombie Alternative

Step 3

Consider 1. Problem not properly defined, 2. Person needs to feel heard, 3. Idea is good= more consideration, 4. Idea person doesn’t respact others, 5. person doesn’t understand idea is bad

Alternative Idea that won’t die

Idea production Blocking

Step 3

Clustering

Evaluation Apprehension

Step 3

Clustering

WYSIATI

Step 4

Info Overload

Step 4

Refer back to steps 1,2 why data is needed? Do you have enough?

Opposite of WYSIATI

Intuitive Statistition

Step 4

Use statistical tools

Human brain bad statitition

Gamblers fallacy

Step 4

Use statistical tools

Part of intuitive statitition, “correct” random by opposite future

Hot Hand Fallacy

Step 4

Use statistical tools

See patterns where not (part of intuitive statitition)

Ego Depletion

Step 5

Don’t make big decisions when depleted

Paralysis by analysis

Step 5

Keep analyzing w/o conclusion

Conformity

Step 5

reach consensus when some of group don’t agree

Surrogation

Step 5

Use multiple performance metrics, Involve others in strategic decision making

Measure becomes goal

Historians fallacy

Step 6

Evaluating process soley on outcome

Availability Shortcut

Steps 1-4

1. Awareness, 2. Make opposing case, consult, use objective data

Primary Bias

Steps 1-4

What we see/learn first

Recency bias

Steps 1-4

Overweight what we learned recently

REPRESENTATIVENESS BIAS

Steps 1-4

tend to judge the likelihood of an

event’s occurrence by the degree to which

their perception resembles the data.

(Religious vs religious and active)

(president look)

Overconfidence BIas

Steps 3-6

1. Awareness, challenge estimates, pre mortem thinking

Don’t acnoledge uncertainty (nile river)

Anchoring

Steps 4-6(number)

Don’t look at outcomes before making predictions

Using number too heavily

Curse of knoledge

Steps 4-6(no number required)

Don’t look at outcomes before making predictions

(like anchor but can be more than numbers)