the global energy landscape

global energy demand and growth

The world population has doubled since 1960, and is set to increase from ~8 billion to >9 billion by 2050. Most of the projected growth is driven by emerging economies, with China and India accounting for half the growth.

international energy authority’s world outlook report

This report considers three different scenarios that reflect current real-world conditions and starting points

STEPS scenario

stated policies, including energy, climate and related industrial policies

APS scenario

assumes all international pledges and climate targets made by governments are met in full and on time

NZE scenario

net zero emissions by 2050

have we reached peak CO2 emissions

total emissions have notably flattened in the past decade but slow

global energy

climate policy is bringing the world closer than ever before to a peak in fossil fuel use

fossil fuel reserves to production ratios

(R/P) - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year -> length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate

coal reserves

Coal remains - by far- the most abundant fossil fuel with a global R/P ration of >130 years. World reserves of coal in 2020 = 2020 1074 billion tonnes, mainly in the US, Russia, Australia and China

natural gas reserves

Natural gas has a global R/P ratio of c. 48 years. World reserves of gas concentrated in the Middle east and CIS

the gradual transition in the fuel mix continues

Renewable energy is the fastest growing energy source. Even though the energy mix is the most diversified ever seen, oil, gas, and coal remain the dominant sources of energy

expected pace of cost reductions

the costs of onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV are likely to fall by around 25% and 40% over the next 20 years (↓ cost, ↑ operating efficiency)

which is the largest source of final energy in Ireland

oil

low carbon energy options - reduce demand

Energy saving (cycling instead of driving) and energy efficiency (LED lights, smart metering etc)

low carbon energy options - use greener sources

Eliminate fossil fuels rapidly (oil and gas, tar sands/oil shales, coal, hydrates)  still too dependent on these.

Expand modern renewables - wind, solar, biomethane, geothermal etc.

Hydroelectric energy (near physical limit?)

Nuclear energy (low GHG emissions)

carbon capture and storage

Offers a partial solution to the environmental problems (GHG emissions) of continued use of fossil fuels, but risks the moral hazard of 'lock-in' to fossil fuels.

Nonetheless it may be a useful transition technology to buy time in the move from the current carbon-based energy system

how much of Ireland’s energy is still from fossil fuels

>86%