L7 - Heuristics

What is a conjunction fallacy?

a cognitive bias where individuals mistakenly believe that the probability of two events occurring together (a conjunction) is higher than the probability of either event occurring alone

e.g. Linda is bank teller AND a feminist vs Linda is a bank teller (this must be more probable)

What is the availability heuristic?

estimating the likelihood of an event based on the ease with which it comes to mind

Example of Tversky and Kahneman (1973) testing the Availability Heuristic

Repeatedly exposed people to a set of names. Then later asked how famous they think people were - higher ratings for names they had seen before.

Example of Russo & Shoemaker, 1989 testing the Availability heuristic in news

Asked which leads to more deaths per year?

• Stomach Cancer of Traffic accidents

Estimations were opposite of real statistics (irl more deaths by stomach cancer)

• Tuberculosis or fire

  Estimations were more deaths by fire but irl they are about the same

Study on availability heursitic for behavioural judgments (Shwarz et al, 1991)

Asked subjects for either 6 or 12 examples of either assertive or non-assertive behaviour. 6 = easy condition, 12 = difficult condition.

Then asked to rate how assertive they are (1-9)

If they found task easy (6) they gave higher rating when as asked to give assertive examples, than non-assertive examples.

If they found task difficult (12) they gave lower ratings when giving assertive examples and higher ratings for non-assertive examples.

What is the representative heuristic?

interpreting events based on preformed categories or expectations

e.g. Thinking Linda is a feminist due to stereotypes of what a feminist should look like

Study Example of the Base Rate Fallacy

Population A = lots of psychologists, fewer engineers

Population B = the opposite

Jim is 45 years old. He isn’t very interested in social problems. He loves modern technology and sudoku. What are the chances Jim is an engineer?

FINDINGS: they estimate the exact same whether Jim is in population A or B (IGNORE BASE RATE)

What is confirmation bias?

We are biased to look for information confirming a stereotype, through verificationist approach

What are illusory correlations?

If you expect a pattern when there isn’t one, you are more likely to notice one. e.g. putting circles round dots, makes them appear ore clustered than they are

What is the foot-in-the-door technique for compliance?

Get someone to comply with a small initial request in order to increase likelihood of them complying to an increased second request.

Study of the foot-in-the-door technique (Freedman and Fraser, 1966)

In one group, women were asked to sign a petition for safe driving. In other group, they were not.

Then asked to put an ugly sign in their front gardens.

17% complied if not asked to sign petition, 55% complied when agreed to initial request

What is the door-in-the-face approach to compliance?

Asked people for an initial large request, which they refuse and then ask to complete smaller request.

Example of door-in-the-face study (Cialdini et al, 1975)

Some students were asked to spend two hours a week counselling juvenile delinquents. Then asked them more reasonable request of chaperoning a group of juvenile delinquents to a zoo.

17% agreed to second request in absence of first

50% agreed to second request if they refused the initial request