Studied by 3 people
What percent does this make up on the test?
10% - 15%
Public Opinion
Simply put, it’s how people feel about things.
The general and issue public
Most Americans- the general public-care more about the political issues that affect their day-to-day lives directly. A political issue does not have to interest the majority of Americans, then, to be considered important by politicians. If an issue is of enough importance to a smaller group—the issue public— to cause those voters to become more politically active, that issue may well become an important political issue.
Characteristics of Public Opinion
Salience, Intensity, and Stability
Saliency
The saliency of an issue is the degree to which it is important to a particular individual or group, or the belief in how much you “vote counts”. For example, Social Security is an issue with high salience for senior citizens. Among young voters, Social Security has a much lower salience.
Intensity
How strongly do people feel about a particular issue?
When the intensity of a group's opinion is high, that group can wield political influence far beyond their numbers.
Stability
Public opinion on issues changes over time. Some dimensions of public opinion, such as support for democracy and a controlled free-market economy, remain relatively stable. Others, like presidential approval ratings, can change quickly, as was the case during the last two years of George H. W. Bush's administration.
How can public opinion be measured?
In the United States, public opinion is measured regularly through elections. Elections measure public opinion indirectly, however, because votes for—or against— candidates can rarely be translated into clear and specific opinions. Referenda measure the public's opinion on specific issues (a referendum submits to popular vote to accept or reject a measure passed by a legislative body). Public opinion is measured most frequently and directly by public opinion polls.
Public opinion polls
Public opinion polls are designed to empirically determine public opinion by asking questions of a much smaller group.
What is random sampling?
Random sampling is a technique where every individual in a population has an equal chance of being selected for a survey, ensuring that the sample is representative.
Benchmark Polls
Benchmark polls are initial surveys conducted to gauge public opinion on a candidate or issue, providing a baseline for future polling.
Tracking Polls
Tracking polls are surveys conducted over a period of time to monitor changes in public opinion on a candidate or issue, allowing for the analysis of trends.
Entrance Polls
Entrance polls are surveys conducted with voters as they arrive at polling places, designed to gauge their intentions and preferences before they cast their votes.
Exit Polls
When conducting exit polls at polling places on election day, pollsters target voting districts that collectively represent the voting public and randomly poll voters who are leaving the voting place. This method discourages bias, which may occur if pollsters were to approach only those voters who seemed most friendly or eager to participate.
Stratified Random Sampling
Stratified random sampling is a variation of random sampling, in which the population is divided into subgroups and weighted based on demographic characteristics.
Polls and wording
Polls must be worded in neutral language as to not sway people one way or another. Unless that’s the pollsters goal…
Sampling Error
Polling organizations know how accurate their polls are and include this information with the poll re-sults. The accuracy is measured as a sampling error and appears as a percentage with a plus and minus sign to the left (for example, +or- 4%). The sampling error tells how far off the poll results may be. Suppose a poll indicated that 60% of Americans favored the death penalty. If that poll had a sampling error of +or- 4%, the actual percentage of Americans favoring the death penalty could be anywhere between 56% and 64%. Generally, the more respondents a poll surveys, the lower the sampling error. The reliability and validity of polls has come into question over the past decade as they have failed to accurately predict election outcomes. For ex-ample, all the major national polls projected Hillary Clinton as the winner of the 2016 presidential election, but Donald Trump won the Electoral College.
Where does public opinion come from?
The first factor that influences individual political beliefs is family. Most people eventually affiliate with the same political party as their parents. Children's political beliefs are also greatly affected by the moral and ethical values they learn from their parents. Also important is their location-people born in rural states may develop political views that are more socially conservative than those of city dwellers.
As children grow, other factors influence their political socialization. In school, they learn about history and government, and they are exposed to the political perspectives of teachers and peers. Religious institutions have a similar influence on many Americans. Mass media, such as television, radio, magazines, and the Internet, further inform political attitudes. In general, however, this is because most political issues have little direct impact on their day-to-day lives.
Those who progress to higher education often find themselves questioning their social and political assumptions for the first time. As a result, college can be a time of radical change in an individual's political beliefs. Studies have shown that students retain many of the political attitudes they acquire in college throughout their lives.
Ideology
A coherent set of thoughts and beliefs about politics and government.
Conservative
Conservatives stress that individuals should be responsible for their own well-being and should not rely on government assistance. As a result, they tend to oppose government interference in the private sector. They also oppose most federal regulations, preferring that the market determine costs and acceptable business practices laissez-faire economics). Social conservatives, who make up a powerful wing of the conservative population, do support government action on social issues. In a 2021 Gallup poll, 36% of Americans considered themselves to be conservatives.
Liberal
Liberals believe that the government should be used in a limited way to remedy the social and economic injustices of the marketplace. They tend to support government regulation of the economy. They also support government efforts to redress past social injustices through programs such as affirmative action. Most liberals believe the government should strictly enforce the separation of church and state, and therefore oppose school-sponsored prayer and proposed bans on abortions, which they perceive as motivated by religious beliefs. In a 2021 Gallup poll, 25% of Americans considered themselves to be liberal.
Moderate (or Independent)
The beliefs of moderates do not constitute a coherent ideology. Instead, moderates view themselves as pragmatists who apply common sense rather than philosophical principles to political problems. A 2021 Gallup poll found that 37% of Americans considered themselves to be moderate.
What are determining factors in political behavior?
Race/ethnicity, religion, gender, income level, and region.
Race/ethnicity
Racial and ethnic groups who disproportionately populate the lower income levels tend to be more liberal than other Americans. Black and Hispanic people have been more likely than other Americans to support liberal social programs, for example. There are exceptions to these rules, however: Cuban Americans, for one, have tended to be conservative.
Religion
Among the various religious groups in the United States, Jews and African American Protestants are generally the most liberal. Catholics also lean toward the political left, although many are conservative on social issues. Devout white Protestants tend to be more conservative. This is particularly true in the South, where white Protestants who attend church regularly are among the nation's strongest supporters of the Republican Party.
Gender
Women tend to be more liberal than men. They are more likely to vote Democratic, more likely to support government social welfare programs, and less likely to support increases in military spending.
Income Level
Americans in higher income brackets tend to be more supportive of liberal goals such as racial and sexual equality. They also support greater international cooperation. However, they tend to be more fiscally conservative. Poorer Americans, conversely, are generally more conservative on all issues except those concerning social welfare.
Region
Regional differences arise from different economic and social interests. The ethnic and racial mix of the East Coast has made it the most liberal region of the country (making these "blue states"). In the more religious South, conservatism is predominant (making these "red states"). The West Coast, toward which many Americans continue to migrate, is the most polarized, with strong liberal and conservative contingencies scattered up and down the coast; however, this region has leaned more to the left in recent years. Liberals tend to congregate in cities; elsewhere, small town and more rural voters are generally conservative.
Examples of News Media
news broadcasts on television (particularly 24-hour cable news networks), radio, and the Internet
newspapers
news magazines, such as Time
magazine broadcast programs, such as 60 Minutes and 20/20
newsmaker interview programs, such as Meet the Press and The Daily Show (which may be a comedy show, but has hosted many political guests and approached interviewing those guests seriously)
political talk radio and podcasts
websites, blogs, news aggregators, and online forums, such as The Huffington Post, Drudge Report, and Politico
social media such as Meta, Instagram, Twitter, Tumblr, and Reddit
The Media and Public Agenda
The most important role the media play is in setting the public agenda. By deciding which news stories to cover and which to ignore, and by returning to some stories night after night while allowing others to die after a few reports, the news media play an important part in determining the relative importance of political issues.
Are News Organizations Biased?
Yes, news organizations can exhibit bias in their reporting based on political affiliations, editorial choices, and audience targeting. A primary source of media bias is the need for immediate audience appeal.
Libertarian
Libertarians are individuals who advocate for a political philosophy that emphasizes individual liberty, limited government, and free markets. This ideology stresses personal responsibility and the belief that government should interfere as little as possible in both personal lives and economic activities. Libertarians often challenge traditional political ideologies by promoting civil liberties, non-interventionist foreign policy, and minimal taxation, which directly impacts changes in ideology and policy-making processes.
