Ukraine Conflict and Economic Warfare

Flashcards about the Ukraine conflict, economic warfare, and sanctions based on lecture notes.

Proxy War

Occurs when two powers use third parties to fight rather than fighting each other directly; it involves indirect conflict, non-state actors, and is often ideologically driven.

Ukraine-Russian War as a Proxy War

Unlike traditional proxy wars, Russia is directly involved, but the conflict includes Western countries providing support to Ukraine.

Reasons for Proxy Wars

Countries avoid direct military engagement, assert influence in strategic regions, control resources, propagate ideologies, and weaken rival nations without direct confrontation.

Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Invasion, destruction, civilian deaths (~12,000), infrastructure damage (>$130 billion), firm closures, refugee crisis (>8 million), and massive rebuilding costs (>$400 billion).

Narratives for Russia's War with Ukraine

Protection of minorities, defense against NATO, resources, and Western powerplay.

The Russian Narrative (Putin, 2022)

Russia's goal to protect people, demilitarize, and de-Nazify Ukraine.

Russian-Speaking Regions in Ukraine

Areas within Ukraine where a significant portion of the population speaks Russian as their native language.

Ukraine and Belarus' Role Regarding NATO

Ukraine and Belarus as potential buffers for Russia against NATO.

Ukraine's Mineral Resources

Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Graphite, Rare Earth Elements (valued up to USD 12 trillion).

Mineral Agreements with Ukraine

Deals with Ukraine give them exclusive access to Ukraine’s minerals, aim diminishing dependency on China (and Russia) as suppliers of rare minerals.

Black Soil (Chernozems)

High yield agricultural land in Ukraine

Sanctions Definition

Prohibition on certain exports or activities without a license, including restrictions on financial transactions, services, and shipment of items.

Types of Sanctions

Economic, diplomatic, individual, and sport sanctions.

SDN

List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons that US Persons are prohibited from doing business with

Sanction Types (Global)

Financial, travel ban, arms embargo, commodity restriction, aviation/shipping restriction, diplomatic restriction.

Finding the Right Sanction Target

Lower demand, keep prices low, and avoid shortages by selecting products with many substitutes and high global competition.

Initial Impact of Sanctions on Russian Economy

Initially limited impact, Rouble recovered, and price increase for fossil energy created a surplus.

Western Firm Exit from Russia

Study by HSG and IMD found only around 10% of Western firms have exited Russia.

Circumvention

Using alternative routes or countries to bypass sanctions and continue trade.