Ch. 8: Problem Solving, Decision Making and Creativity

Decision Making

• Much of a supervisor’s job consists makes that covers all functions of management

• Make them without much thought about the process of deciding

Rational Model of Decision Making

1. Identify problem

2. Identify the alternative solutions

3. Gather and organize facts

4. Evaluate the alternatives

5. Choose and implement the best alternative

6. Get feedback and take corrective action

Simplicity

Looking back at one’s experiences and considering ways one has handled similar problems in the past

Bounded Rationality

• Choosing an alt that meets min standards

• Considers alternatives only until one is found that meets criteria

Subjective Rationality

Analyzing alts based on intuition and gut instincts instead of collecting impartial

Rationalization

• Favouring solutions believed to be justifiable to others

• Interfere with good decisions when maker focuses more just justifying that weighing alts against previously defined criteria

Personal Perspective

Assuming that everyone sees thing from the same perspective

Recency Syndrome

Tendency to more readily remember events that have occurred recently

Guidelines for Decision Making

• Consider the consequences

• Respond quickly in a crisis

• Inform the manager

• Be decisive yet flexible

• Avoid decision-making traps

Decision Making Gaps

• Treating every decision like a crisis

• Responding inappropriately to failure

• Overlooking precedent

• Promising too much

• Assuming only one choice is right

Probability Theory

• Body of techniques for comparing the consequences of possible decisions in a risk situation

• Needs to know or be able to estimate the value of each possible outcome and the probability that this outcome will occur

Decision Tree

• Graph that helps decision makes use the probability theory by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances

• Expected value= value of outcome x probability outcome will occur

Computer Software

• Computer program that leads the user through the steps of the formal decision making process

• : Consensus tracking, cost benefit analysis, scenario analysis

• Capability to input relevant data for analysis

• : Excel

Advantages of Group Decision Making

• Contribute more ideas

• Involved with coming up with a solution and likely to support implementation

Disadvantages of Group Decision Making

• An individual can settle on a decision faster

• Lower labour costs

• Victims to groupthink

Groupthink

• failure to think independently and realistically as a group because of the desire to enjoy consensus and closeness

• Symptoms

  • Illusion of being invulnerable

  • View of opponents

  • Existence of self appointed mind-guards

Overcoming Groupthink

• Introduce variety of ideas, and listen with an open mind

  • Appoint one to act as devils advocate

The Brainstorming Process

1. Group members state ideas

   • No comments at this stage

2. Group member records idea where group can read it

3. Ideas evaluated only after all have been recorded